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Schmuck: O's getting closer on Millwood

jdmyprez

By jdmyprez
in Orioles Talk

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Absolutely...if you can get him for a 26 y/o single A prospect because you eat all 12 million, then you do it.

You don't need to trade talent here...just dollars...and if Texas doesn't like that, you go to the next team that you can trade dollars for player.

Are you signing Millwood to a $12million one-year deal of he's a free agent? His FIP last year was 4.80, compared to a 3.67 ERA. I guess I'm in the minority, but I really don't have any interest in trading anything for Millwood if BAL has to take on the whole salary. Maybe if TEX is also throwing in a player like Davis.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Are you signing Millwood to a $12million one-year deal of he's a free agent? His FIP last year was 4.80, compared to a 3.67 ERA. I guess I'm in the minority, but I really don't have any interest in trading anything for Millwood if BAL has to take on the whole salary. Maybe if TEX is also throwing in a player like Davis.

The money is meaningless...What matters is what are you giving up for him.

Let's say these 2 offers are on the table:

Generic prospect for Millwood and all of his contract.

Erbe for Millwood and 5 million.

Which do you do?(your answer may be neither and that's fine but the Orioles seem like they want Millwood)...So if those are the 2 deals, which do you take?

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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The money is meaningless...What matters is what are you giving up for him.

Let's say these 2 offers are on the table:

Generic prospect for Millwood and all of his contract.

Erbe for Millwood and 5 million.

Which do you do?(your answer may be neither and that's fine but the Orioles seem like they want Millwood)...So if those are the 2 deals, which do you take?

Well, I will never agree that the bolded is true -- but whatever. This is your question; I'll answer as posed.

To me, it's like someone pointing at my hypothetical dog and asking me, "I have to drop something on this animal. Would you like it to be a red brick from four feet or a sack full of brass doorknobs from twenty feet?"

Geez, I guess I'll take the brick (Millwood for generic prospect and all of his K), but this is shaping-up to be a pretty awful Tuesday...my hypothetical dog agrees.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Well, I will never agree that the bolded is true -- but whatever. This is your question; I'll answer as posed.

To me, it's like someone pointing at my hypothetical dog and asking me, "I have to drop something on this animal. Would you like it to be a red brick from four feet or a sack full of brass doorknobs from twenty feet?"

Geez, I guess I'll take the brick (Millwood for generic prospect and all of his K), but this is shaping-up to be a pretty awful Tuesday...my hypothetical dog agrees.

The money is meaningless in this scenario because Erbe is worth more than 4-5 million dollars.

So, that is meaningless...If the Orioles decide that Millwood is who they want, then they are prepared to eat that whole contract so that they can keep the better players.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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The money is meaningless in this scenario because Erbe is worth more than 4-5 million dollars.

So, that is meaningless...If the Orioles decide that Millwood is who they want, then they are prepared to eat that whole contract so that they can keep the better players.

Okay, but what does that have to do with it being a good move? Again, you're just making a case for hitting my hypothetical dog with a brick. Why do you have to hit my dog at all?

We just had a long discussion involving concerns with a small amount of data pointing at Edwin Jackson improving, and why he's likely to be overvalued in the trade market. Milwood had an ERA+ of under 90 for the three seasons before last, and (as I noted) his FIP last year was around 1.2 runs higher than his ERA!

EDIT -- My mistake, his ERA+ for 06, 07, 08 was 102, 88, 88, respectively.

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Dipper9 Hangout Grand Counsel

Dipper9

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Okay, but what does that have to do with it being a good move? Again, you're just making a case for hitting my hypothetical dog with a brick. Why do you have to hit my dog at all?

We just had a long discussion involving concerns with a small amount of data pointing at Edwin Jackson improving, and why he's likely to be overvalued in the trade market. Milwood had an ERA+ of under 90 for the three seasons before last, and (as I noted) his FIP last year was around 1.2 runs higher than his ERA!

Because if he doesn't hit your dog, there isn't enough food to keep the dog fed, so he will die a slow painful death. Duh! ;)

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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I don't see how anyone can expect Millwood to repeat what he did last year.

His 13-10, 3.65 ERA seems a hard thing for him to do again when his record is checked.

His three year average is:

11-11, 4.58 ERA, 30 S, 180 IP, 209 H

That is not something that the O's should pay up for, if they want him at all. That makes him maybe #3 pitcher who can eat innings. It's certainly not worth $12M/yr or a high potential prospect.

Also his ERA is better at home then it is away. So don't think that Texas home park is hurting his ERA.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3687&type=pitching3&three=1

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Mackus Hangout Grand Counsel

Mackus

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I don't see how anyone can expect Millwood to repeat what he did last year.

His 13-10, 3.65 ERA seems a hard thing for him to do again when his record is checked.

His three year average is:

11-11, 4.58 ERA, 30 S, 180 IP, 209 H

That is not something that the O's should pay up for, if they want him at all. That makes him maybe #3 pitcher who can eat innings. It's certainly not worth $12M/yr or a high potential prospect.

Also his ERA is better at home then its is away. So don't think that Texas home park is hurting his ERA.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3687&type=pitching3&three=1

He probably won't even be at that 3-year average unless he gets very lucky like he did last year. He almost certainly won't be near the 3.65 ERA he put up last year.

His xFIP the past three seasons has been 4.61, 4.20, and 4.78. Expect his ERA to be somewhere in that range and maybe even a bit higher to take into consideration the decline he experienced in K/9 and BB/9 last year perhaps continuing.

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