He's back! Tejada signs 1-yr deal.

[Hank Scorpio]

I don't think his contract will be a problem as he will likely earn it, but I'm more worried about a groundball pitcher like Bergesen who will be affected by the lack of a solid defensive option at 3B.

So you would have been okay with Crede, then?

[EutawStreet]

If nothing else, its good to know that we have a 3rd baseman. I'll sleep better tonight.

[SrMeowMeow]

Oh well, I wanted Crede, but it's a good PR move and he should be worth 1.5 WAR, although with his skillset, an unlucky year or a slight tick downwards in his true talent and he could lose all his offensive value.

[Shopay]

So you would have been okay with Crede, then?

He would have been so long as AM didn't sign him. However, if AM had signed Crede instead of Miggy, thenTrea would have had all kinds of problems with Crede.

[RShack]

About 100 games.

That happened before MLB-EI let me watch lots of games... so here's something I don't know...

During this adjustment period, were they making mistakes left and right? Or is the 100 games more about the being-comfortable factor than the butcher factor?

[BRobinsonfan]

Oh well, I wanted Crede, but it's a good PR move and he should be worth 1.5 WAR, although with his skillset, an unlucky year or a slight tick downwards in his true talent and he could lose all his offensive value.

What do you like about Crede?

[Lucky Jim]

His average BABIP since coming to Baltimore is .318. Take out the obvious extreme .349 in 2006 and that average drops to .311. His straight average for the last three years (which is much more legitimate than looking at 6 years) is .310, with a weighted three year average (weighted in that 2009 receives more weight than 2007) of .312.

Adjust his 2009 numbers with a goal BABIP of .311, and he ends up with a batting average of .302. Add his .027 ISO-D and his .142 ISO-P and he ends up with a slash line of 302/329/444/773. If the BABIP were to drop down to the .301 range that slash line would look more like 293/320/435/755.

I made a similar prediction for him following his unlikely 2006 season when he had an obviously unsustainable .349 BABIP, and was told then that I was crazy. I was proven then to be right, and expect something similar this time following an obviously unsustainable .323 BABIP. By the way, his 2007 BABIP dropped all the way to .304. Similar regression this time around would not surprise me the least, therefore I'm not sure you're correct to say that it isn't likely.

I didn't say you're crazy. And I think a lot of us agreed with you re: Tejada following 2006.

But the above prediction falls squarely in line with what I said that I expected.

I said that it's not likely that his BABIP reverts to his career average - and really was referring to your estimate of a .304 OBP. Nothing you've written above convinces me that it's likely that he has a .301 BABIP next year. He may. He's clearly capable of it. His .303 and .304 BABIPs in 2007 and 2008 point that out. But most other years he floats above that. Including last year.

You're absolutely right, though: if Tejada regresses in every possible way, then there's a strong chance he puts up a pretty crappy slash line.

[Lucky Jim]

Curious that you say a good comp for Tejada would be Young and his -10 UZR/150, yet then in this post say you doubt he'll be a below average 3B like Atkins even though Atkins worse than -10 once in his career has a career rate of -5.

I said that Young was a good floor comp at -10. And I said that I think he'll essentially be a wash with Atkins at 3B, i.e., below average.

Atkins the last three years has put up UZR/150s of -14, -8 and -.7.

Yes, wildly disparate theories.

[Guest rochester]

Was luke warm on Miggy until I heard how excited BRob and Nick would be to have him back. He was perceived as being a cancer by many, myself included, without real factual knowledge. I now believe that, with AM contacting BRob before bringing him back, etc. (which is another + in AM's corner) it is a good move.

[Lucky Jim]

No offense, but I don't really care if I didn't convince you - wasn't really the intent. I personally think it will be closer to the 303/304 than even 311, so I'll stick with my 750-ish OPS prediction.

I certainly didn't mean to put you in a snit. Apologies.

As I've said - like - three times now, I agree with a .750-ish prediction, though perhaps shaded a bit more toward .775. It's not like I'm saying Tejada should bat 2nd or 3rd, or that I think he's going to bound back to the player he was in 2005.

[SrMeowMeow]

What do you like about Crede?

His upside. If he can play a full season, he projects (based mostly on three injury-riddled seasons where I can only assume he was not playing at 100%) to be worth a full win more than Tejada. I'd rather take the risk (does it really matter if he gets hurt and we play Wigginton at third some more?) and have a chance at the upside than take on Tejada's aging, questionable skillset. He's gonna have a .350 OBP in 2010, according to Moose Milligan? Yeah, his CAREER OBP is .341. I bet he'll be closer to .320 than .350. Do we really need a bad defensive 3B we can bat 8th?

[Lucky Jim]

His upside. If he can play a full season, he projects (based mostly on three injury-riddled seasons where I can only assume he was not playing at 100%) to be worth a full win more than Tejada. I'd rather take the risk (does it really matter if he gets hurt and we play Wigginton at third some more?) and have a chance at the upside than take on Tejada's aging, questionable skillset. He's gonna have a .350 OBP in 2010, according to Moose Milligan? Yeah, his CAREER OBP is .341. I bet he'll be closer to .320 than .350. Do we really need a bad defensive 3B we can bat 8th?

You're very impassioned about this. I think for this year, it comes down less to upside (because that upside isn't going to put us over the top) and more to reliability and versatility. It's not glamorous, but it is what it is.

Crede has had three back surgeries in as many years. He's just not reliable.

[Maverick2143]

I knew I saved my #10 jersey for a reason. Welcome Back Miggy.

[bluedog]

1. 2B Roberts

2. LF/DH Reimold

3. RF Markakis

4. C Wieters

5. CF Jones

6. 3B Tejada

7. LF Pie/ DH Scott

8. 1B Atkins

9. SS Izturis

Scott plays when he is hot. Pie plays a lot against righties.

Bench: Scott/Pie, Wiggy, Moeller, Andino for defense when Izturis is pinch hit for.

This team actually has the option of carrying a three man bench because Miggy can backup at SS and Wiggy can come in at 3b. Alternatively, Turner may get an opportunity to replace Andino because Tejada gives DT a reasonably good option at SS.

I think the only reason Andino made the team last year was because the O's had no other reasonable option at SS. By all accounts, Miggy can still play an effective SS (not above average, maybe not even average, but reasonable as a backup) and I'd much rather have a quality bat on the bench than Andino who gives us nothing outside of his glove backing up short.

[WildDave]

I knew I saved my #10 jersey for a reason. Welcome Back Miggy.

I put mine on this morning when I saw this thread.

Does anyone know whether he'll get the number back? I'd like to see Jones hang on to it but could see it either way.