He's back! Tejada signs 1-yr deal.

[helloharv]

This is true...but not every single move is going to embody a certain philosophy and to act like it does or should is pretty absurd.

Your right...at least he signed a Solid Defensive 1st baseman :eektf:

[larrytt]

Tejada to me is likely to put up an OBP closer to .300 than .350 as some are hoping.

Tejada's OBP last year was .340, one point below his career .341. I don't see any evidence that he's about to fall off a cliff.

-Larrytt

[mcgraw238]

Tejada's OBP last year was .340, one point below his career .341. I don't see any evidence that he's about to fall off a cliff.

-Larrytt

Excellant point. We have the potential for solid offensive production. IF, Atkins can work with Crowley and get back some of that production from the previous three seasons, big if I admit, the offense for the club can be pretty nice.

[Babypowder]

Tejada's OBP last year was .340, one point below his career .341. I don't see any evidence that he's about to fall off a cliff.

-Larrytt

Driven completely by his .313 BA which was coupled with an unsustainable BABIP. He does not walk at all anymore so if that BABIP normalizes at all...his OBP could drop substantially. I'm thinking it is very likely his OBP is somewhere around .320.

[Since66]

:

Tejada's OBP last year was .340, one point below his career .341. I don't see any evidence that he's about to fall off a cliff.

-Larrytt

Of course the problem with cliffs is that it doesn't take long to fall off of them.:laughlol:

[RShack]

I would like to go on record as saying I don't know how he's gonna hit, but I bet it won't be bad.

I also bet he will kick some at 3rd but will gun a lot of guys out too.

I think what happened here is that AM needed a temp spare part until Bell is ready, and he managed to get somebody who, all in all, will contribute in a way somewhere between "OK" and "pretty good". I don't know exactly where in there it will be, but I bet it will be in there somewhere. For a temp spare part, I don't see how you're gonna do better than that...

[Lucky Jim]

Driven completely by his .313 BA which was coupled with an unsustainable BABIP. He does not walk at all anymore so if that BABIP normalizes at all...his OBP could drop substantially. I'm thinking it is very likely his OBP is somewhere around .320.

A .320 BABIP is not unsustainable. His BABIP averages about .311 over the last six years or so. I think some regression is in order, but let's not overestimate the effect.

[wildcard]

I'd probably go with Turner and look to get him at bats like this:

1. PH for Izturis with Miggy going to SS late in games and Turner taking over 3rd. Obviously you do this in games where you are behind or tied late and where defense means nothing unless you score some more runs. I can see this happening quite a bit.

2. PR for Wieters, Scott, Atkins, Miggy or Wiggy (depending on who's starting) late in games. Turner can go right into the game at any infield position or be replaced defensively by Moeller or Wiggy at C or OF. We have some very, very slow runners on this team and I suspect that Turner will be a big upgrade on the bases even though he's only got a 70% SB rate in the minors.

3. Start for Roberts at 2b once every 10 to 12 days. The O's need to give everyone on the roster regular days off to keep them fresh for season's end.

4. Defensive replacement for Miggy / Wiggy at 3b late in games.

I could see Turner getting 100 - 120 at bats in this manner.

Here are my thoughts on those situations:

1) Scott or Pie and Wiggy are available to PH. Turner would have to prove he is a better PH then them. Andino is a better SS back up than Miggy late in games.

2) Andino can do this as well.

3) I agree this is Turners best use. Probably twice a month for 12 games a year or about 48 at bats, though I can't see Roberts giving up those many at bats.

4) Not sure who is a better defensive replacement at 3B, but if I had to guess I would say that Andino is better. The point is probably moot because after the first month I doubt Trembley would replace Miggy defensively. Its a respect thing.

The plus for Andino is if Izturis goes down for a month, Andino becomes more valuable however he is used. And Izturis is likely to go on the DL at some point of the year if this year is anything like past years. Andino is going to be a better defensive SS then Miggy.

I think having Miggy on the team allows Trembley to get more offense out of SS when Miggy is used there. It probably cuts down on the number of at bats that Andino will get. However Andino as a 25th that does not play much other then being a defensive replacement and a PH has some value. I am not sure Turner's lack for experience at SS is more valuable then that.

[Skeletor]

Better than Mora.

[Sanfran327]

The more I think about the defensive aspect of this signing, the more comfortable I become. It is a very good point that Tejada has little to no MLB experience at 3b, and a valid concern. However, I have to agree with LuckyJim and others that point out his WBC play and other non-MLB settings in which he's probably logged more innings at thrid base than I have in my entire life - and I've been a thrid baseman!

However, the real calming aspect of this is Izturis. I think Izzy gives him an opportunity to shrink his responsibility zone, focus on playing the line, and helping him adjust to a new position with great defense to help him on the left side of the infield.

[Great 2BA FL Gator]

I for one, am excited about this move. All "in depth" stats aside, I will take his .300+ BA at 3B and his plethora of doubles, especially if he bats 7th. We have filled one of our CI gaps with a pretty safe bet.

As far as his defense, he has been quoted as saying that he's been mentally and physically preparing himself to play 3B since the end of this last year..

I also think he is a good addition to the clubhouse personality and leadership wise. You can't underestimate these two qualities..

Good work once again Mr. MacPhail.

-Beats the HECK out of Crede or anyone other FA 3B IMO (Better value than overpaying Beltre)

-Takes some pressure off of Atkins.

-Allows one of "Snydy" or JB to take their time in the minors.

:clap3:

[The Rick]

I'm pretty pumped about this move, can't wait to wear my Tejada jersey again, even if the # on the back isn't the same. It should be a great time welcoming him back on Opening Day.

[JTrea81]

What do you like about Crede?

He's got some pop and is one of the best defensive 3B men in the league.

IIRC Tejada's problem at SS was his range to his left, and that's really important as a 3B man. Yeah he won't have to cover as much ground, but his range to his left was still poor.

[tntoriole]

A one year deal...limited risk...somebody who the fans and players seem to enjoy having on the team (steroid issues aside)...somebody who plays hard and plays virtually every day....Crede would have been a worse choice with little fan appeal and who knows, maybe his medical history didn't pan out with Os doctors...

Crede also gave you no flexibility at shortstop which Tejada also brings...

With all the dire predictions of him "falling off the cliff"...36 years old...etc...

there, of course, is also at least the slight possibility that he will be reenergized by being back at Camden Yards with a young team (and also playing a new position and playing for his next contract)..

I tell you what, his September/October finish was awesome...he closed with hitting in 26 out of 27 games including 21 straight to finish the year to go from .298 to .313 and he hit four of his fifteen homeruns in the final month (with a team that was going nowhere)....this could be Miggy playing for his next contract (and 2010 will also be that way for him as well).

[Tony-OH]

I'm not passionate. I just think we made the wrong decision. There are only a few ways to look at this season:

A) Write it off and focus only on player development.

B) Load up and try to make a run.

We're not doing either of those. What we're doing can best be described by:

C) Make marginal improvements all across the team so that if we catch some breaks we can make a run a la the 2008 Rays but not at the cost of the future.

In this scenario, I see no value in having a stable 1.5 WAR player at 3B, especially one whose question marks are purely negative - i.e. maybe Tejada just can't play third and that's the end of that.

What we should do is embrace risk. Look at it as game theory. (I know this is simplified by a ton, but it's a thought experiment). Say we need 95 "points" to make the playoffs, and 25 "game pieces" that are each worth 3 points. That's only 75 points, and there's no variance, so we won't make the playoffs. Now say we have 25 pieces each worth 1-4 points. The expected value of the team is lower, but now we have a non-zero chance to make the playoffs.

Extend this. Say you have a team of 24 pieces that total up to a range of 85-98 points (a mix of variable and non-variable pieces), and you have two pieces you are considering adding - one worth 2 points and another worth 0-5 points. The math is too complex to do in my head right now since it would involve tallying up a lot of individual probabilities that make up this hypothetical 85-98 team, but I argue (and can easily prove, if you want) that this team gets more value, with value defined as the chance to reach or surpass 95 points ("making the playoffs"), from adding the non-variable 2 point piece than another hypothetical 70-90 point team. I'm sure you'll agree with me. Furthermore, the most important goal of a team whose peak is < 95 is increasing the peak of the team, not the overall expected value.

I'm sure you can see where this argument goes. I think the Orioles are in the 65-85 range, and therefore we should favor upside over reliability. I think Crede's range is 0-3 and Tejada more like 1-2. I KNOW, please, I know it's a very simplified analysis, but I think it makes a point worth considering.

I hate to see when you put complicated analysis. Holy crap man, my head started hurt halfway through this post.

Either way, who do you think we could have acquired at this point of the season to make a run for it? Tejada improves the team because he can play third base and shortstop and it now means we don't have to carry Andino and his zero bat.

Are we an instant contender, no, but we are better in my opinion. We struggled against lefties last year and Tejada hits lefties well. Yes, I know he's getting to an age where to decline and yes I realize he put up a .708 OPS away from hitter friendly Minute Maid Park and yes I know his defense at third base is a question mark, but he's a better option than running Wigginton or Atkins out there every day and it's a one-year contract.

I think this helps Trembley's flexibility with his roster and improves the club for 2010.