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Roch talks about filling 1B

JTrea81

By JTrea81
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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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When you are talking about somebody who's actually watched Lee perform in games, yes...

The guy says he's seen most of his ABs.

I'm sorry, this is just crazy. There are plenty of people with season tickets that watch a great portion of the season and still have absolutely no business attempting to evaluate things like projected decline. When I go to an Orioles game I wouldn't be surprised if I heard fans say a total of 200 stupid things between the first pitch and the last out.

I mean, I wouldn't even trust a Fangraphs author to appraise MLB performance with his eyes unless I'm given reason to believe he has some talent on the evaluative side. I'll listen to any statistically-based suppositions they have, but there are too many arm chair scouts writing incorrect assessments -- even on reputable sites.

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scOtt Hangout Grand Counsel

scOtt

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When you are talking about somebody who's actually watched Lee perform in games, yes...

The guy says he's seen most of his ABs.

ABSOLUTELY no offense meant...

Cindy has probably seen most of the O's games this year. Would you accept her opinion as fact? How about my opinion for that matter? :P

Would it be trolling to make a joke out of this?

Trolling the troll. Ummm..... No. I think that's allowed.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Based on what? This?

Hmmmm that's the best team in the American League over 162 and their 1st baseman was a measly 1.0 WAR player. Not a good example I guess, right? Okay how about this?

Oh right, those losers just got swept by the MFY in the first round of the playoffs. How silly of me.

Okay let's try this. LOL!!!!! Look what I just did there, that's just goofy.

Hmmmmm... so who's left? Wow, I'm stymied because the Texas Rangers had a rag tag group of platoons at first base all year long. So the only example of a 4 WAR player was ya boy Tex, right?

OH SNAP!!!!!!!

Let's be moderately realistic, PLEASE?!?!?!

Why do I think this will go ignored?
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ScottieBaseball Veteran All-Star

ScottieBaseball

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Well...there's 5 minutes of life I'll never get back! Allow me to play Monday morning QB with this thread. JTrea...this is intended to be entirely constructive, so please take it as such.

I tried already. If the 35 year old is not someone Trea wants, he is automatically declining. No counter arguments allowed.

Now, I'm not saying Lee is a safe bet, necessarily. But that's how you make smart FA moves. Kind of like BOS with Beltre this past winter.

That's essentially your MO here. You twist words and numbers to support your argument and cleverly ignore the words and numbers that contradict/negate your position. This, JTrea, is why threads in which you're involved tend to devolve into schoolyard namecalling fiascos. I'm not saying the reactions are justified, but I understand. It's almost like you're not here to DISCUSS anything. A discussion involves two or more people TALKING and LISTENING. You talk, but your track record indicates that you don't listen.

Just "wow". You don't see how one is potentially a very solid calculated risk and the other is potentially a huge gamble that could cripple your financial flexibility for 3 -4 years (using your numbers). Not surprising, but it kind of smacks me in the face when I read you making that earnest argument.

Perfect example here of a logical statement that went sailing over your head. This is a very "baseball intelligent" community. Stotle's at or near the top of the list in terms of baseball IQ here.

This post is a result of you not being able to understand that "smart" baseball moves involve different types of risk. Beltre's risk was performance, not age. You have done absolutely no research on Lee (or at least you haven't presented any) to support your claim that he is a bad risk due to his age and likely performance. You speak in generalities and treat those generalities is infallible. Worse, you aren't consistent with your generalities and have no issue flip-flopping with them when it suits your purpose.

In essence, you are the equivalent of a blow-hard in business that knows enough to speak with confidence on all kinds of issues, but when push comes to shove your ideas will often result in failure. Your confidence in your absolute rightness prevents you from ever seeing counter arguments, and thus you never learn, your tune never changes, and your approaches are never creative or thoroughly thought out. Excellent on a bar stool -- a trainwreck in the boardroom.

Another well-written post by Stotle. Unfortunately, I don't even think it's just an opinion, it's a fact.

Or something even more likely -- his weight catches up to him as he starts to transition into his 30s!! How many players push 300 lbs are effective in general, let alone past age 30?!?!
First that contract is unrealistic.

Let's say 7/175.

And that is a risk that you take. But Fielder has been pretty consistent even despite carrying that weight. His father didn't fall off until age 32 and Prince is only 26. He's likely got 5 good years left in him at least.

You can't let an Albert Belle situation scare you away from a player. Most people were all ready to sign Teixeira to an 8 year deal I think and right now Prince is more valuable than Tex when he was this age, and he'll reach FA at a younger age.

LT contracts are always a risk, but with Prince, his best years are still likely in front of him. And the 5 years you get of good production are worth carrrying the extra two for the declining production.

The goal is to win within those 5 years. And with the length of contract you have for Roberts and Markakis, now is the time to take a risk like that.

Good God...you're all over the place! I'm not saying hours of research should go into every post on a freaking message board, but there were several points made in response to this post that clearly shoot holes in your position. Albert Belle's not a logical comparison. Cecil Fielder didn't bulk up until WAY later in his career. The list goes on and on.

The point of financial felxibility is NOT having to use it all. You have some in reserve for when the unexpected strikes. If the time is right, maybe you max out for a year or two, but you don't put all of your eggs into one basket and cross your fingers. That is insane, and teams that do that tend to fail at their tasks.

See? Stotle's a smart guy. That financial flexibility makes perfect sense.

You really need to read this over and over until you get it: “In baseball, if you convince yourself you need a certain player, you’ve already lost. One player doesn’t have that much impact,” said Epstein. “It’s about building organizations. It’s not about adding players"

And then you should contemplate this: "The capacity of human beings to bore one another seems to be vastly greater than that of any other animal." H. L. Mencken :rolleyestf:

That Epstein quote is one to live by in baseball, whether you're a GM or a fan.

And Jtrea, you are greatly exaggerating your Lee stuff and are showing no knowledge and very little intelligence when discussing it.

if you want more of a long term option, that's fine...but don't make up and exaggerate things to make your point.

BTW, what happens if both SD and Mil want more for their 2 first baseman than you think they are worth...What do you do then?

Wait. The actual article states the data is inconclusive (as of August 10th) regarding Lee's season, as his LD% is up, his BABIP is down across the board, but his HR/FB rate is also down. Inconclusive, says the author, as to whether or not there is real decline here from Lee.

But you quote the Cubs fan in the comments section that happens to agree with your stance on Lee's aging? We're now quoting opinions from comment sections?

When you are talking about somebody who's actually watched Lee perform in games, yes...

The guy says he's seen most of his ABs.

I'm sorry, this is just crazy. There are plenty of people with season tickets that watch a great portion of the season and still have absolutely no business attempting to evaluate things like projected decline. When I go to an Orioles game I wouldn't be surprised if I heard fans say a total of 200 stupid things between the first pitch and the last out.

I mean, I wouldn't even trust a Fangraphs author to appraise MLB performance with his eyes unless I'm given reason to believe he has some talent on the evaluative side. I'll listen to any statistically-based suppositions they have, but there are too many arm chair scouts writing incorrect assessments -- even on reputable sites.

I just...wow. A comment on a blog entry from some anonymous guy who claims to have seen "most" of Lee's at-bats trumps all other logic, evidence, statistics, opinions, etc.? Wow.

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