Roch talks about filling 1B

[Stotle]

I won't be surprised to see him traded somewhere.

That would seem logical, but I've heard he's off the table (may be posturing, but that's what I hear).

[Sports Guy]

First that contract is unrealistic.

Let's say 7/175.

And that is a risk that you take. But Fielder has been pretty consistent even despite carrying that weight. His father didn't fall off until age 32 and Prince is only 26. He's likely got 5 good years left in him at least.

You can't let an Albert Belle situation scare you away from a player. Most people were all ready to sign Teixeira to an 8 year deal I think and right now Prince is more valuable than Tex when he was this age, and he'll reach FA at a younger age.

LT contracts are always a risk, but with Prince, his best years are still likely in front of him. And the 5 years you get of good production are worth carrrying the extra two for the declining production.

The goal is to win within those 5 years. And with the length of contract you have for Roberts and Markakis, now is the time to take a risk like that.

You do know that a contract with Fielder will not start until the 2012 season, right?

So you are really advocating an 8/190 contract.

And since you think he will drop off after age 32, that means you are getting 4 years of good production...oh, and you lose the players that it takes to trade for him.

[JTrea81]

You do know that a contract with Fielder will not start until the 2012 season, right?

So you are really advocating an 8/190 contract.

And since you think he will drop off after age 32, that means you are getting 4 years of good production...oh, and you lose the players that it takes to trade for him.

2011 - 27

2012 - 28

2013 - 29

2014 - 30

2015 - 31

2016 - 32

I count 5 years before age 32 assuming you trade for him and 6 including age 32. So if he's going to drop off at age 33, that gives you 6 years under a 8 year span.

[Sports Guy]

2011 - 27

2012 - 28

2013 - 29

2014 - 30

2015 - 31

2016 - 32

I count 5 years before age 32 assuming you trade for him and 6 including age 32. So if he's going to drop off at age 33, that gives you 5 years under a 8 year span.

I am talking about the contract extension, not the guarantee for next year.

[JTrea81]

I am talking about the contract extension, not the guarantee for next year.

There's still 5 years out of 7.

Cecil Fielder had an .834 OPS and hit 39 HR at age 32.

Mo Vaughn had an .864 OPS and hit 37 HR at age 32.

[Sports Guy]

And Jtrea, you are greatly exaggerating your Lee stuff and are showing no knowledge and very little intelligence when discussing it.

if you want more of a long term option, that's fine...but don't make up and exaggerate things to make your point.

BTW, what happens if both SD and Mil want more for their 2 first baseman than you think they are worth...What do you do then?

[JTrea81]

And Jtrea, you are greatly exaggerating your Lee stuff and are showing no knowledge and very little intelligence when discussing it.

if you want more of a long term option, that's fine...but don't make up and exaggerate things to make your point.

BTW, what happens if both SD and Mil want more for their 2 first baseman than you think they are worth...What do you do then?

Go with Luke Scott at 1B until after 2011 and upgrade LF instead.

[El Gordo]

I think trading for Fielder would be a horrible move, but I'm still not a fan of Lee, and I don't think the "premium bat" argument has been given enough credit. Looking around at the teams that made the playoffs this year, most have at least 1-2 players who are far, far superior to anything the Orioles have to throw out there. The Rays have Longoria and Crawford, the Yankees have...well, we all know who they have...and even if you want to point to the Giants as an example of a playoff team with a relative paucity of star power, you have to take the following into account: the Giants play in the NL West. The Orioles aren't going to make the playoffs out of the AL East with upgrades that are limited to the "35 year old D. Lee" range.

Lets say a premium bat is a .900 OPS player. If its at 1B then you have increased that position by about .270 points OPS. That's about .30 points team OPS. Spreading it around so that you have increased it to league average at 1B, SS, 3B, and LF you will raise the team OPS about .50 points. Most teams score more runs with a .750 team OPs than a .730. It may well be that by adding a Lee, Uribe, Bartlett and Rimold/Pie platoon you will do better tham .750 OPS. Since most stat guys wll tell you increasing team OPS is more inmportant than having a big bat in the middle of the order, I don't think the premium bat argument holdS much water. The most important thing is how much you are inreasing team offensive production, at what cost, for how many years.

[Moose Milligan]

That is never the right answer, as you end up paying more, value wise, than you would be back-loading or making it equal.

Yeah, you're absolutely right about this. I wasn't thinking that way.

In unrelated news, I continue to wonder why we engage the usual suspect. I'm as guilty as anyone here, I realize...I'll try to be better from here on out.

[Hank Scorpio]

LOL you guys are funny.

[Moose Milligan]

LOL you guys are funny.

Ahhh, Mr. Too Cool For School

[Sports Guy]

I know Jtrea has no interest in acknowledging any analysis that goes against big names but here is a piece FG did on Lee in August...This was before his improvement in his numbers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/derrek-lees-down-year/

[JTrea81]

I know Jtrea has no interest in acknowledging any analysis that goes against big names but here is a piece FG did on Lee in August...This was before his improvement in his numbers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/derrek-lees-down-year/

And I already posted this in another thread arguing against signing Lee, especially when you read this comment:

That could mean a few things. But having seen enough of his 464 plate appearances this year, I can tell you that the major meaning is that he’s expanding his zone and hitting pitcher’s pitches into easy outs. Weak grounders, soft line drives, lazy fly balls. He’s been getting himself out.

He seems unable to catch up to quality fastballs. I’d be interested in seeing how many pitches 94+ mph he’s even tipped this year. Maybe there’s a fountain of youth for him on the West Coast. But he looks old in a way that neither the Soriano of 2009 did nor the 2010 Ramirez does.

[LookinUp]

If the goal is to add premium players at positions of need, I don't understand why we don't sign one of Crawford/Werth/Beltre and trade for Furcal (assuming he's available). That would give us two damn close to premium upgrades and still leave money for a league average or better 1b like Lee for a stop gap.

Then, after next season, if you want to throw fort knox at Gonzalez or Fielder, we could do it w/o trading away our young and CHEAP talent.

[Sports Guy]

And I already posted this in another thread arguing against signing Lee, especially when you read this comment:

Except he ended the season well, so your theory is shot.

End of the day, even in a down year for him, he was worth 2 WAR. He is a smart risk for the Orioles to take.