1B Possibility?

[MrOrange82]

There will be healthy competition between Daric Barton and Chris Carter, and Carter can get a little time in the outfield and at DH. He's not a good defensive outfielder, though, and Barton is a very good defensive first baseman, so it's tough to see Carter getting a ton of at bats. The A's now have Willingham, DeJesus and Matsui in the fold.

Carter's got holes in his swing and might compete with Reynolds for strikeout king, but he's got a ton of power.

I doubt the A's let him go cheaply, though.

What would you guess would be the cost? Willingham, DeJesus and Matsui could all be gone after next year, so I doubt 2011 overcrowding (given the players) would prompt the A's to move Carter.

[RVAbird]

What would you guess would be the cost? Willingham, DeJesus and Matsui could all be gone after next year, so I doubt 2011 overcrowding (given the players) would prompt the A's to move Carter.

Yep, you're right about the three muskateers, which is why Beane would probably prefer to stash Carter in AAA until/unless one of those guys gets hurt. Carter is probably a DH long-term, anyway. He's certainly not an outfielder.

I think the cost would be prohibitive, and basically agreed with you on that.

It's worth asking, though.

[wildcard]

Do you know how many high ceiling pitching prospects to which we could compare Tillman who fizzled out?

Fact is pitching prospects bust at higher rates than positional prospects.

I think you are overrating BAL prospects, again.

Prospects are unproven players. Some don't make it. However, Tillman has done pretty much everything he needs to at the AAA level at a young age.

Alonso has yet to show power at a power position.

Right now Tillman is a better bet to have a long major league career than Alonso IMO.

The fact that the O's can pick up a FA first baseman and keep Tillman while trading for Alonso would cost the O's Tillman seals the evaluation for me.

Tillman and Derrek Lee vs Alonso (who has limited power at a power position)

Its an easy choice.

[RVAbird]

Prospects are unproven players. Some don't make it. However, Tillman has done pretty much everything he needs to at the AAA level at a young age.

Alonso has yet to show power at a power position.

Right now Tillman is a better bet to have a long major league career than Alonso IMO.

The fact that the O's can pick up a FA first baseman and keep Tillman while trading for Alonso would cost the O's Tillman seals the evaluation for me.

Tillman and Derrek Lee vs Alonso (who has limited power at a power position)

Its an easy choice.

I fundamentally disagree with this statement.

Upside? I'll allow Tillman the advantage.

But, to say that an unproven pitching prospect like Tillman is a better bet to have a long major league career than is a positional prospect like Alonso is to misunderstand the uncertainty principal of pitchers vs. positional players.

Pitchers are far more likely to injure themselves than positional prospects. Translations from MiL to ML prove far more difficult for pitchers than hitters. Pitchers have a significantly higher bust rate than do hitters.

Add in the fact that Tillman has made 23 starts to the tune of a 5.61 ERA and 6.00 FIP, and consider the fact that Alonso has very good bat control and plate discipline which gives him a much higher 'floor' than Tillman, and I think it's obvious that safety does not fall in Tillman's favor.

Still more, add in the fact that starting pitching is a relative area of strength for BAL, while the organization has no serious first base prospects (please don't bring up Joe Mahoney), and I think the cards fall in Alonso's favor.

I don't think Tillman is exactly what Cincy is looking for, however, and I think he could be obtained without sacrificing a piece of our future like Tillman, but I don't think it's wise to bet on Tillman providing value over Alonso at this point.

[RVAbird]

Just like in the Floyd thread, I can understand not favoring the specifics of this hypothetical.

But, I am getting more and more frustrated by an unwillingness to take risks in the trade market that I see evidence of in both the front office and some of the fan base.

This team is not going to be able to compete by being decent in the amateur draft, poor in international spending, an afterthought in the FA market, and safe in trades.

This method of operation will not bring enough talent into the organization to seriously compete in the AL East. At some point, you've got to identify a need, and find a way to go get it with a legitimate, long-term option. Even if that comes at the risk of a bad value contract or egg on your face for giving away a good prospect.

We don't have to take monumentally stupid risks, but trading value for value to fill positions of need is something the organization needs to be willing to do. We need to be creative and proactive.

[wildcard]

I fundamentally disagree with this statement.

Upside? I'll allow Tillman the advantage.

But, to say that an unproven pitching prospect like Tillman is a better bet to have a long major league career than is a positional prospect like Alonso is to misunderstand the uncertainty principal of pitchers vs. positional players.

Pitchers are far more likely to injure themselves than positional prospects. Translations from MiL to ML prove far more difficult for pitchers than hitters. Pitchers have a significantly higher bust rate than do hitters.

Add in the fact that Tillman has made 23 starts to the tune of a 5.61 ERA and 6.00 FIP, and consider the fact that Alonso has very good bat control and plate discipline which gives him a much higher 'floor' than Tillman, and I think it's obvious that safety does not fall in Tillman's favor.

Still more, add in the fact that starting pitching is a relative area of strength for BAL, while the organization has no serious first base prospects (please don't bring up Joe Mahoney), and I think the cards fall in Alonso's favor.

I don't think Tillman is exactly what Cincy is looking for, however, and I think he could be obtained without sacrificing a piece of our future like Tillman, but I don't think it's wise to bet on Tillman providing value over Alonso at this point.

And Alonso looks like the second coming of Casey Kotchman only not as good. So his major league career is not very promising.

Yes, Tillman has pitched in the majors at 21 and 22 years old. Alonso is 23 and has 29 unimpressive at bats in the majors. I'll take Tillman's chances for a long career over a powerless Alonso. In order for a position player to have a long career he has be able to perform to the standards of that position. Limited power will not keep Alonso as an everyday player in the majors very long.

[MrOrange82]

Just like in the Floyd thread, I can understand not favoring the specifics of this hypothetical.

But, I am getting more and more frustrated by an unwillingness to take risks in the trade market that I see evidence of in both the front office and some of the fan base.

This team is not going to be able to compete by being decent in the amateur draft, poor in international spending, an afterthought in the FA market, and safe in trades.

This method of operation will not bring enough talent into the organization to seriously compete in the AL East. At some point, you've got to identify a need, and find a way to go get it with a legitimate, long-term option. Even if that comes at the risk of a bad value contract or egg on your face for giving away a good prospect.

We don't have to take monumentally stupid risks, but trading value for value to fill positions of need is something the organization needs to be willing to do. We need to be creative and proactive.

My opinion on trading is nothing new/groundbreaking. The ML roster is thin, and the minors are thinner. The Orioles can't really afford to lose on trades right now, whereas they "can" (theoretically) increase spending and invest in better draft practices at almost any time. As for picking up bad value contracts...I was practically climbing the walls trying to convince people that signing Dunn was a good idea given the state of things. I don't love the ideas of Lee or LaRoche (I don't want Lee for 2 years or LaRoche for 3), but would I revolt if either contract happened? No.

[RVAbird]

And Alonso looks like the second coming of Casey Kotchman only not as good. So his major league career is not very promising.

Yes, Tillman has pitched in the majors at 21 and 22 years old. Alonso is 23 and has 29 unimpressive at bats in the majors. I'll take Tillman's chances for a long career over a powerless Alonso. In order for a position player to have a long career he has be able to perform to the standards of that position. Limited power will not keep Alonso as an everyday player in the majors very long.

And a starting pitcher doesn't?

I'm sure no player has ever kept a 1st base job with a .160-.180 ISO-P and a .360+ OBP. I'm sure no team would be interested in pursing a player like that in this day and age

And, no willingness to address the bust rate and unpredictability of pitchers vs. hitters?

Whatever, this is pointless because you've made up your mind that you like Tillman and you don't like Alonso.

[RVAbird]

My opinion on trading is nothing new/groundbreaking. The ML roster is thin, and the minors are thinner. The Orioles can't really afford to lose on trades right now, whereas they "can" (theoretically) increase spending and invest in better draft practices at almost any time. As for picking up bad value contracts...I was practically climbing the walls trying to convince people that signing Dunn was a good idea given the state of things. I don't love the ideas of Lee or LaRoche (I don't want Lee for 2 years or LaRoche for 3), but would I revolt if either contract happened? No.

I think that, because the ML and MiL rosters are thin, you could just as easily argue that the Oriales can't really afford to miss the opportunity to win trades. Resting on our laurels isn't going to be enough to get us to contention.

Sure, AM can say that he will buy the bats and that we will draft and develop well and invest in international spending, but, to this point, none of that has really happened, at least not to the extent that it needs to, and unless we see a change in GM/Scouting Director, I don't expect it to.

[Scrat1]

And, no willingness to address the bust rate and unpredictability of pitchers vs. hitters?

Whatever, this is pointless because you've made up your mind that you like Tillman and you don't like Alonso.

I'm not nearly as down on Alonso as Wildcard is, but I prefer Tillman over Alonso as well, even taking into consideration your point about position players and hitters. Alonso is probably more of a sure thing than Tillman, but I think it's more difficult to find a pitcher of Tillman's potential than it is to find a first baseman of Alonso's potential. There are almost always Branyan types available in free agency, and although I'd obviously much rather have Alonso over Branyan, the likely gap in production between the two isn't as significant as the likely gap in production between what Tillman and a free agent starter willing to come to Baltimore would give us. Pitchers flat out don't want to come here unless we grossly overpay.

Of course this is all moot: The Red have starters coming out of their ears, and Dusty doesn't trust youth anyways, so Tillman isn't going anywhere.

[MrOrange82]

I think that, because the ML and MiL rosters are thin, you could just as easily argue that the Orioles can't really afford to miss the opportunity to win trades. Resting on our laurels isn't going to be enough to get us to contention.

Sure, AM can say that he will buy the bats and that we will draft and develop well and invest in international spending, but, to this point, none of that has really happened, at least not to the extent that it needs to, and unless we see a change in GM/Scouting Director, I don't expect it to.

I guess it depends on who gets shipped off. Losing another pitcher doesn't worry me as much as losing a position player (even an older one like Scott...a point I made earlier).

Just seems to me this is all illusory, regardless...we're clamoring over what should be done, but the reins remain in AM's hands (what I mean by that is...I guess trading seems more likely to happen because AM has made trades, as opposed to his abject reticence to improve scouting/drafting...but it's still up to AM).

My strong preference would be to hold off on trading and expend resources on international/domestic scouting and the draft. I don't like the idea that cheering for the "worst" option (just trading) is what I (we) have to do just because it seems like the only thing AM might do.

[RVAbird]

I'm not nearly as down on Alonso as Wildcard is, but I prefer Tillman over Alonso as well, even taking into consideration your point about position players and hitters. Alonso is probably more of a sure thing than Tillman, but I think it's more difficult to find a pitcher of Tillman's potential than it is to find a first baseman of Alonso's potential. There are almost always Branyan types available in free agency, and although I'd obviously much rather have Alonso over Branyan, the likely gap in production between the two isn't as significant as the likely gap in production between what Tillman and a free agent starter willing to come to Baltimore would give us. Pitchers flat out don't want to come here unless we grossly overpay.

Of course this is all moot: The Red have starters coming out of their ears, and Dusty doesn't trust youth anyways, so Tillman isn't going anywhere.

I guess it depends on who gets shipped off. Losing another pitcher doesn't worry me as much as losing a position player (even an older one like Scott...a point I made earlier).

Just seems to me this is all illusory, regardless...we're clamoring over what should be done, but the reins remain in AM's hands (what I mean by that is...I guess trading seems more likely to happen because AM has made trades, as opposed to his abject reticence to improve scouting/drafting...but it's still up to AM).

My strong preference would be to hold off on trading and expend resources on international/domestic scouting and the draft. I don't like the idea that cheering for the "worst" option (just trading) is what I (we) have to do just because it seems like the only thing AM might do.

I disagree with some of the details of these posts, but I can respect the basic ideology behind the two.

Re: Scrat -

The advantage of Alonso is service time and cost control. To get averageish production from 1B using the FA market, you have to continuously spend 7-12 MM dollars and sometimes commit to contracts that are too long (IE, the predicament we seem to be in with LaRoche and Lee). Alonso gives you a cheap, long-term solution, which fills a hole for years and gives us the payroll flexibility to maximize the talent we can afford in FA.

Re: MrOrange

I agree that I'm rooting for better drafting, developing, and international spending, but why would you want to completely cut yourself off from an avenue by which you can acquire talent? Saying "no trades" as a blanket statement seems to be shooting yourself in the foot, no?

Why is trading the "worst" option? Even good organizations that draft/develop well and spend big in FA also make shrewd trades to improve their rosters.

[MrOrange82]

I disagree with some of the details of these posts, but I can respect the basic ideology behind the two.

Re: MrOrange

I agree that I'm rooting for better drafting, developing, and international spending, but why would you want to completely cut yourself off from an avenue by which you can acquire talent? Saying "no trades" as a blanket statement seems to be shooting yourself in the foot, no?

Why is trading the "worst" option? Even good organizations that draft/develop well and spend big in FA also make shrewd trades to improve their rosters.

Trading alone, IMO, is the worst option. Put another way, trading despite the perceived fact that AM won't do what it takes to improve the Orioles' international presence and beef up the minor league system via the draft seems like the worst option.

I'd feel much more comfortable trading from what little depth we have if we could also rest assured that the system would be replenished through other sources. Given the options that seem "possible" (making a trade or signing a player to a bad-value contract without assurances of improvements in other areas), I'd rather take on the bad contract (addition without subtraction).

[RVAbird]

Trading alone, IMO, is the worst option. Put another way, trading despite the perceived fact that AM won't do what it takes to improve the Orioles' international presence and beef up the minor league system via the draft seems like the worst option.

I'd feel much more comfortable trading from what little depth we have if we could also rest assured that the system would be replenished through other sources. Given the options that seem "possible" (making a trade or signing a player to a bad-value contract without assurances of improvements in other areas), I'd rather take on the bad contract (addition without subtraction).

Ah ok, that clears up your post for me a bit.

That's a reasonable stance, but I'm of the opinion that if you think you have a trade that will make your team better without sacrificing much long-term, you make it.

If the organization is going to continue to treat FA and international spending the way it has, I think it needs to be able to take more risks in the trade market to fill holes long term. We can both agree that relying solely on this avenue is a bad idea, but I don't think the organization can afford to be risk-averse in all areas.

[MrOrange82]

Ah ok, that clears up your post for me a bit.

That's a reasonable stance, but I'm of the opinion that if you think you have a trade that will make your team better without sacrificing much long-term, you make it.

If the organization is going to continue to treat FA and international spending the way it has, I think it needs to be able to take more risks in the trade market to fill holes long term. We can both agree that relying solely on this avenue is a bad idea, but I don't think the organization can afford to be risk-averse in all areas.

Definitely. I think we can look at AM's trades this offseason as well-calculated risks to improve the ML team. Perhaps my mild aversion to Alonso has as much to do with a relative lack of familiarity as anything else (Hardy and Reynolds obviously have track records that make them easier to project for someone like me).