A look at the Orioles, by month

Just a reminder Frobby.

Just a reminder Frobby.

Don't worry, I'll get to it later today.

Before I get into April 2016, I've just noticed that I never did an entry for September 2015. I'll get back to that later.

And before I get into the April 2016 details, here are the Orioles' April records since I started this thread in 2011:

2011: 12-13

2012: 14-9

2013: 16-11

2014: 12-12

2015: 10-10

2016: 14-9

So, we matched our best April record of the last six years (5 games over .500, which we've done 3 times).

April 2016

14-9 record

7-4 vs. AL East

9-2 at home

5-7 on the road

1-0 in extra innings

3-2 in one run games

4.70 runs scored per game was 3rd in the AL

.796 OPS was 1st in the AL

.333 OBP was 2nd in the AL

.273 BA was 2nd in the AL

.463 SLG was 1st in the AL

1.48 HR/game was 1st in the A

.936 OPS with RISP was 1st in the AL (.329/.385/.551, 179 PA, 158 AB, 52 H, 69 TOB, 87 TB)

3.63 ERA was 7th in the AL

0.74 HR allowed/game was 2nd lowest in the AL (!)

4.55 starter ERA was 13th in the AL

5.25 IP/start was last in the AL

2.24 bullpen ERA was 2nd in the AL

13 save opportunities was most in the AL

7 saves was tied for 5th in the AL

6 blown saves was 2nd most in the AL (Brach 3, McFarland 2, O'Day 1; we won 4 of the 6 games where a blown save occurred, including all 3 of Brach's).

0.48 errors/game was 3rd lowest in the AL

5 unearned runs allowed was tied for 4th lowest in the AL

-1 Rtot

Fangraphs defense -7.6, UZR -4.8 (-8.1 OF, +3.3 IF)

Conclusion: The offense has been very strong across the board, though we did experience a cold streak in KC/Tampa. The numbers there are strong both overall and in RISP situations. In a way, it's surprising we are only 3rd in runs scored/game, considering the raw slash line stats and the RISP numbers. That may be a reflection on team speed and some baserunning mistakes. The starting pitching was very shaky in April, and we had very few games where our starters got deep into the game, but we didn't get blown out and the starting pitching did seem to get better towards the end of the month, with Gausman's return and some strong outings by others, especially Tillman. The pen was very good (despite last night's fiasco) and seems poised for another good year. The infield defense has been very good (despite last night's fiasco), but the corner OF defense has been abysmal and is something to keep an eye on. Overall, I feel very good about where the team is and feel we have room to improve.

May 2016

14-13 record

2-3 vs. AL East

8-8 at home

6-5 on the road

1-1 in extra innings

2-3 in one run games

4.07 runs scored per game was last in the AL

.725 OPS was 10th in the AL

.309 OBP was 12th in the AL

.242 BA was 12th in the AL

.416 SLG was 10th in the AL

1.30 HR/game was 7th in the AL

.662 OPS with RISP (.221/.299/.363, 221 PA, 190 AB, 42 H, 69 TB, 66 TOB)

4.15 ERA was 9th in the AL

4.59 RA was 8th in the AL

1.22 HR allowed/game was 8th fewest in the AL

4.69 starter ERA

5.90 IP/start

3.09 bullpen ERA

12 save opportunities was tied for 3rd in the AL

10 saves was tied for 2nd in the AL

2 blown saves was tied for fewest in the AL

0.67 errors/game

12 unearned runs allowed was 3rd highest in the AL

-8 Rtot

Fangraphs defense +0.3, UZR +3.9 (-2.6 OF, +6.5 IF)

Cumulative through May

4.33 runs scored per game was 6th in the AL

.757 OPS was 3rd in the AL

.320 OBP was 6th in the AL

.256 BA was 7th in the AL

.437 SLG was 3rd in the AL

1.38 HR/game was 3rd in the AL

.787 OPS with RISP was 4th in the AL (.270/.338/.448 with RISP (400 PA, 348 AB, 94 H, 156 TB, 135 TOB)

3.91 ERA was 5th in the AL

1.00 HR allowed per game is 3rd best in the AL

4.20 RA was 5th in the AL

4.63 starters' ERA was 11th in the AL

2.69 bullpen ERA was 3rd in the AL

5.60 IP/start was 11th in the AL

25 save opportunities was tied for 1st in the AL

17 saves was 2nd in the AL

8 blown saves tied for 4th most in the AL

29 errors tied for 8th best in the AL

17 unearned runs allowed was 5th most in the AL

-9 Rtot

-0.9 UZR (+10.8 IF, -11.7 OF) was 9th in the AL

-2.9 fangraphs defense was 9th in the AL

Conclusion: A pretty mixed bag for the month, and potentially troubling considering we played 16 of 27 games at home. The hitting was pretty solid though the first game of the last road trip, then really took a nosedive over the last 10 games, with the lack of hitting with runners in scoring position being a real sore spot. The starting pitching was uneven, but at least they started getting deeper into games (5.90 IP/start in May vs. 5.25 in April). The bullpen was good when we had the lead but allowed a few games that were close to get out of hand late. The defense was quite shaky and cost quite a few runs.

One point I wanted to make about the O's only scoring 4.07 runs/game, last in the AL for May. wildcard said elsewhere that this is "unacceptable." Actually, 4.07 R/G is not that low, and I'm surprised that was lowest in the league last month. Last year, the Orioles had 3.28 R/G in May, 3.72 in July. If 4.07 R/G turns out to be our low month for the year, I'll be very pleased with that. That said, I hope we break out soon, because the last ten days or so have been painful to watch.

o

Orioles Played .679 Ball in June, and Surged into First Place

(By Steve Melewski)

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2016/07/the-orioles-played-679-ball-in-june-and-surged-into-first-place.html

o

Orioles Played .679 Ball in June, and Surged into First Place

(By Steve Melewski)

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2016/07/the-orioles-played-679-ball-in-june-and-surged-into-first-place.html

APRIL: ).ll 14-9

MAY: )).llllll 14-13

JUNE: )l..,) 19-9

________

TOTAL: )).l 47-31

I've really been looking forward to writing this month's recap.

June 2016

19-9 record

13-6 vs. AL East

14-3 at home

5-6 on the road

0-1 in extra innings

3-3 in one run games

6.61 runs scored per game was 1st in the AL

.888 OPS was 1st in the AL

.357 OBP was 1st in the AL

.300 BA was 1st in the AL

.531 SLG was 1st in the AL

2.00 HR/game was 1st in the AL

.923 OPS with RISP (.336/.393/.530, 270 PA, 232 AB, 78 H, 123 TB, 106 TOB)

4.85 ERA was 9th in the AL

5.00 RA was 7th in the AL

1.32 HR allowed/game was 7th fewest in the AL

5.56 starter ERA

5.26 IP/start

3.79 bullpen ERA

12 save opportunities was tied for 4th in the AL

10 saves was tied for 2nd in the AL

2 blown saves was tied for fewest in the AL

0.54 errors/game

7 unearned runs allowed was 7th fewest in the AL

-7 Rtot

Fangraphs defense -14.7, UZR -8.3 (-6.1 OF, -2.2 IF)

Cumulative through June

5.17 runs scored per game was 2nd in the AL

.805 OPS was 2nd in the AL

.333 OBP was 2nd in the AL

.272 BA was 3rd in the AL

.472 SLG was 1st in the AL

1.60 HR/game was 1st in the AL

.841 OPS with RISP was 1st in the AL (.296/.360/.481 with RISP (670 PA, 580 AB, 172 H, 279 TB, 241 TOB)

4.25 ERA was 8th in the AL

1.12 HR allowed per game is 5th best in the AL

4.49 RA was 7th in the AL

4.95 starters' ERA was 12th in the AL

3.11 bullpen ERA was 2nd in the AL

5.49 IP/start was 11th in the AL

37 save opportunities was tied for 2nd in the AL

27 saves was 2nd in the AL

10 blown saves tied for 5th most in the AL

44 errors tied for 9th best in the AL

24 unearned runs allowed was tied for 7th fewest in the AL

-16 Rtot

-9.2 UZR (+8.6 IF, -17.8 OF) was 12th in the AL

-17.6 fangraphs defense was 10th in the AL

Conclusion: To say that the offense carried the team in June would be a huge understatement. The O's lead the league in every meaningful offensive category, and although the team broke the major league record for most homers in June, that was only one part of the story. The also got on base at a prodigious rate and had tremendous hitting with RISP. I honestly doubt I will ever see the Orioles have an offensive month that tops June 2016.

And, that's the worry, because the pitching well below average, and arguably, so was the defense (depending on whether you go by standard metrics or advanced metrics). The starting pitching was abysmal, with no starter posting an ERA under 4.00 and the group averaging 5.56 ERA in only 5.26 IP/G. Even the bullpen showed cracks, with Givens having several bad outings and the "B team" relievers like McFarland and Drake not holding up their end. Bundy was certainly a bright spot in June, however.

We can't expect the offense to perform again as they did in June, and we will need the pitching and defense to pick up considerably when the offense cools.

So far this year:

April: 4.70 R/G (3rd), 3.63 ERA (7th), 3.74 RA (5th)

May: 4.07 R/G (15th), 4.15 ERA (9th), 4.59 RA (8th)

June: 6.61 R/G (1st), 4.85 ERA (9th), 5.00 (7th)

(Note: the league ERA was 3.76 in April, 4.40 in May, 4.57 in June, so some of the Orioles' big ERA increase is just hitting conditions changing in favor of the hitters.)

Ironically, the pitching has been pretty consistent compared to the rest of the league. It's the offense that has fluctuated wildly. I guess this team is going to go as far as the bats will take them.

What a difference a month makes.

July 2016

12-14 record

4-6 vs. AL East

6-3 at home

6-11 on the road

3-0 in extra innings

4-2 in one run games

3.42 runs scored per game was 13th in the AL

.664 OPS was 14th in the AL

.293 OBP was 14th in the AL

.235 BA was 13th in the AL

.371 SLG was 14th in the AL

1.12 HR/game was tied for 9th in the AL

.573 OPS with RISP (.187/.263/.310, 213 PA, 187 AB, 35 H, 58 TB, 56 TOB)

4.27 ERA was 10th in the AL

4.42 RA was 9th in the AL

1.15 HR allowed/game was 6th fewest in the AL

5.18 starter ERA

5.28 IP/start

2.95 bullpen ERA

12 save opportunities was tied for 2nd in the AL

9 saves was tied for 1st in the AL

3 blown saves was tied for 4th most in the AL

0.27 errors/game

5 unearned runs allowed was 5th fewest in the AL

+2 Rtot

Fangraphs defense +12.5, UZR +4.1 (-5.7 OF, +9.8 IF)

Cumulative through July

4.73 runs scored per game was 6th in the AL

.770 OPS was 2nd in the AL

.323 OBP was 7th in the AL

.263 BA was 6th in the AL

.446 SLG was 2nd in the AL

1.48 HR/game was 1st in the AL

.776 OPS with RISP was 5th in the AL (.270/.336/.439 with RISP (883 PA, 767 AB, 207 H, 337 TB, 297 TOB)

4.25 ERA was 7th in the AL

1.13 HR allowed per game is 4th best in the AL

4.47 RA was 9th in the AL

5.00 starters' ERA was 13th in the AL

3.06 bullpen ERA was 1st in the AL

5.43 IP/start was 14th in the AL

49 save opportunities was tied for 1st in the AL

36 saves was tied for 1st in the AL

13 blown saves tied for 5th most in the AL

51 errors was 3rd best in the AL

29 unearned runs allowed was 6th fewest in the AL

-14 Rtot

-5.1 UZR (+18.4 IF, -23.5 OF) was 9th in the AL

-5.1 fangraphs defense was 9th in the AL

Conclusion: Lack of offense was the obvious key to the month, with the team scoring about half as many runs per game as they did in June. I cannot recall ever seeing such a drastic turnaround. All aspects of offense were way down, and accentuated by terrible hitting with runners in scoring position. All in all, a month to forget for the hitters. The starters continued to be at the bottom of the league, putting huge pressure on the bullpen by averaging less than 5.1 IP per start. But the bullpen was up to the challenge, posting a 2.95 ERA. Kind of under the radar, the defense had an excellent month, committing only 7 errors and scoring well on the advanced metrics, though a deeper look reveals that the infield did all the work, with the outfield continuing to be a negative. Overall, the O's should feel fortunate to have finished 12-14 in a month when the played 17 games on the road, didn't hit a lick and got outscored by 26 runs.

What a difference a month makes.

July 2016

12-14 record

4-6 vs. AL East

6-3 at home

6-11 on the road

3-0 in extra innings

4-2 in one run games

3.42 runs scored per game was 13th in the AL

.664 OPS was 14th in the AL

.293 OBP was 14th in the AL

.235 BA was 13th in the AL

.371 SLG was 14th in the AL

1.12 HR/game was tied for 9th in the AL

.573 OPS with RISP (.187/.263/.310, 213 PA, 187 AB, 35 H, 58 TB, 56 TOB)

4.27 ERA was 10th in the AL

4.42 RA was 9th in the AL

1.15 HR allowed/game was 6th fewest in the AL

5.18 starter ERA

5.28 IP/start

2.95 bullpen ERA

12 save opportunities was tied for 2nd in the AL

9 saves was tied for 1st in the AL

3 blown saves was tied for 4th most in the AL

0.27 errors/game

5 unearned runs allowed was 5th fewest in the AL

+2 Rtot

Fangraphs defense +12.5, UZR +4.1 (-5.7 OF, +9.8 IF)

Cumulative through July

4.73 runs scored per game was 6th in the AL

.770 OPS was 2nd in the AL

.323 OBP was 7th in the AL

.263 BA was 6th in the AL

.446 SLG was 2nd in the AL

1.48 HR/game was 1st in the AL

.776 OPS with RISP was 5th in the AL (.270/.336/.439 with RISP (883 PA, 767 AB, 207 H, 337 TB, 297 TOB)

4.25 ERA was 7th in the AL

1.13 HR allowed per game is 4th best in the AL

4.47 RA was 9th in the AL

5.00 starters' ERA was 13th in the AL

3.06 bullpen ERA was 1st in the AL

5.43 IP/start was 14th in the AL

49 save opportunities was tied for 1st in the AL

36 saves was tied for 1st in the AL

13 blown saves tied for 5th most in the AL

51 errors was 3rd best in the AL

29 unearned runs allowed was 6th fewest in the AL

-14 Rtot

-5.1 UZR (+18.4 IF, -23.5 OF) was 9th in the AL

-5.1 fangraphs defense was 9th in the AL

Conclusion: Lack of offense was the obvious key to the month, with the team scoring about half as many runs per game as they did in June. I cannot recall ever seeing such a drastic turnaround. All aspects of offense were way down, and accentuated by terrible hitting with runners in scoring position. All in all, a month to forget for the hitters. The starters continued to be at the bottom of the league, putting huge pressure on the bullpen by averaging less than 5.1 IP per start. But the bullpen was up to the challenge, posting a 2.95 ERA. Kind of under the radar, the defense had an excellent month, committing only 7 errors and scoring well on the advanced metrics, though a deeper look reveals that the infield did all the work, with the outfield continuing to be a negative. Overall, the O's should feel fortunate to have finished 12-14 in a month when the played 17 games on the road, didn't hit a lick and got outscored by 26 runs.

Worst Oriole month since the first Oriole team in 1954....or some such hockey puck :scratchchinhmm:

August 2016

13-16 record

2-6 vs. AL East

6-8 at home

7-8 on the road

0-0 in extra innings

3-3 in one run games

4.55 runs scored per game was 9th in the AL

.767 OPS was 7th in the AL

.306 OBP was 12th in the AL

.250 BA was 12th in the AL

.461 SLG was 2nd in the AL

1.90 HR/game was 1st in the AL

.825 OPS with RISP (.283/.358/.467, 179 PA, 152 AB, 43 H, 71 TB, 64 TOB)

5.33 ERA was 14th in the AL

5.47 RA was 14th in the AL

1.45 HR allowed/game was 4th most in the AL

4.68 starter ERA

5.44 IP/start

6.22 bullpen ERA

10 save opportunities was tied for 10th in the AL

10 saves was tied for 3rd in the AL

0 blown saves was best in the AL

0.41 errors/game

4 unearned runs allowed was fewest in the AL

-9 Rtot

Fangraphs defense -11.6, UZR -10.6 (-13.7 OF, +3.1 IF)

Cumulative through August

4.69 runs scored per game was 5th in the AL

.769 OPS was 2nd in the AL

.320 OBP was 9th in the AL

.260 BA was 7th in the AL

.450 SLG was 2nd in the AL

1.57 HR/game was 1st in the AL

.784 OPS with RISP was 4th in the AL (.272/.340/.455 (1062 PA, 919 AB, 250 H, 408 TB, 361 TOB)

4.44 ERA was 13th in the AL

1.20 HR allowed per game is 8th best in the AL

4.64 RA was 13th in the AL

4.93 starters' ERA was 14th in the AL

3.75 bullpen ERA was 5th in the AL

5.43 IP/start was 14th in the AL

59 save opportunities was 4th in the AL

46 saves was tied for 1st in the AL

13 blown saves tied for 3rd fewest in the AL

63 errors was 3rd best in the AL

33 unearned runs allowed was tied for 4th fewest in the AL

-23 Rtot

-15.7 UZR (+21.5 IF, -37.2 OF) was 11th in the AL

-16.7 fangraphs defense was 12th in the AL

Conclusion: Offensively, the story was lack of OBP and men in scoring position. The team hit a lot of homers and actually performed quite well in RISP situations, but there simply weren't enough guys on base or in scoring position to get the job done. As to pitching, the big story was horrendous middle relief that failed to keep the offense within striking distance in enough games. How else can you square a 6.22 bullpen ERA with a perfect 10/10 in save opportunities? And defensively, the OF is killing us. Night after night we see Manny, Hardy and Schoop making great plays, but the OF is letting balls drop in all over the place. That needs to be addressed this offseason.

August 2016

Conclusion: Offensively, the story was lack of OBP and men in scoring position. The team hit a lot of homers and actually performed quite well in RISP situations, but there simply weren't enough guys on base or in scoring position to get the job done. As to pitching, the big story was horrendous middle relief that failed to keep the offense within striking distance in enough games. How else can you square a 6.22 bullpen ERA with a perfect 10/10 in save opportunities? And defensively, the OF is killing us. Night after night we see Manny, Hardy and Schoop making great plays, but the OF is letting balls drop in all over the place. That needs to be addressed this offseason.

Overall run production is decent, but the consistency isn't there. That is what I expect from an all or nothing offense. By my count we scored 3 or less runs in 14 of the 29 games and went 1-13 in those games. The few times we have gotten guys on base we have failed to get them in with sac flies much less timely base hits.

Does anyone have #'s on % of runs scored by HR? Ideally you would want a lot of HR's but also have other ways of scoring. It just seems we are close to 100% reliant on the long ball.

Case in point, we have now had two recent losses where our guys have gotten meaningless HRs when the situation called for baserunners (solo by Trumbo, 2-run shot by Schoop). Even when we are down in the 9th these guys are swinging for the fences. Makes no sense.

The run production might look good overall, but a lot of it is coming in outbursts and/or when it doesn't really matter.

Our pitching seems to be the opposite. Our whole staff is bend-not-break guys. We have been getting "quality" starts fairly well but consistently give up at least a couple early runs forcing the offense to play from behind.

Overall run production is decent, but the consistency isn't there. That is what I expect from an all or nothing offense. By my count we scored 3 or less runs in 14 of the 29 games and went 1-13 in those games. The few times we have gotten guys on base we have failed to get them in with sac flies much less timely base hits.

Does anyone have #'s on % of runs scored by HR? Ideally you would want a lot of HR's but also have other ways of scoring. It just seems we are close to 100% reliant on the long ball.

While I think that the elite teams probably have offenses that are more consistent than ours, I would not say that our team is particularly all-or-nothing. So far this year, AL teams have scored 3 runs or less in 41.7% of their games; the O's are at 40.6%.

We are certainly more reliant on the long ball than the average team, but I don't necessarily see that as a bad thing so long as we are scoring an above average number of runs (which we didn't do in August, but have done on the season). The league scores 41.4% of its runs on homers; the O's are at 50.9% (which, I note, is not "close to 100% reliant on the long ball"). We have scored about 67 more runs than the average team via the home run, and about 47 runs fewer than the average team without hitting homers. So yes, hitting homers is a big part of our offense, but it does not lead us to being less consistent than most other teams.

As the numbers show, we have had a good year so far with runners in scoring position, both on the season and in August. That's not the issue. What's more of an issue is a low OBP, and hence, less RISP opportunities.

While I think that the elite teams probably have offenses that are more consistent than ours, I would not say that our team is particularly all-or-nothing. So far this year, AL teams have scored 3 runs or less in 41.7% of their games; the O's are at 40.6%.

We are certainly more reliant on the long ball than the average team, but I don't necessarily see that as a bad thing so long as we are scoring an above average number of runs (which we didn't do in August, but have done on the season). The league scores 41.4% of its runs on homers; the O's are at 50.9% (which, I note, is not "close to 100% reliant on the long ball"). We have scored about 67 more runs than the average team via the home run, and about 47 runs fewer than the average team without hitting homers. So yes, hitting homers is a big part of our offense, but it does not lead us to being less consistent than most other teams.

As the numbers show, we have had a good year so far with runners in scoring position, both on the season and in August. That's not the issue. What's more of an issue is a low OBP, and hence, less RISP opportunities.

Thanks for these numbers. I don't know where you get this stuff so quickly. I absolutely agree OBP is a huge part of the story. Hard to believe but we were #1 in MLB in June. The fact that we are now cumulatively below average underscores how bad we have been the last two months. .298 in July and .305 in August.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/153020-OBP-Tracker