A look at the Orioles, by month

[Frobby]

I'm a few months late with this, but the breakdown is pretty interesting, so better late than never.

 

September/October 2016

 

17-12 record

 

12-11 vs. AL East

 

7-7 at home

 

10-5 on the road

 

1-0 in extra innings

 

6-3 in one run games

 

 

4.14 runs scored per game was 10th in the AL

 

.719 OPS was 8th in the AL

 

.305 OBP was 13th in the AL

 

.235 BA was 14th in the AL

 

.414 SLG was 8th in the AL

 

1.52 HR/game was 2nd in the AL

 

.612 OPS with RISP (.205/.269/.343, 245 PA, 210 AB, 43 H, 72 TB, 66 TOB)

 

 

3.02 ERA was 1st in the AL

 

3.38 RA was 2nd in the AL

 

0.83 HR allowed/game was best in the AL

 

3.79 starter ERA

 

5.64 IP/start

 

1.70 bullpen ERA

 

9 save opportunities was tied for 11th in the AL

 

8 saves was tied for 6th in the AL

 

1 blown save was 2^nd best in the AL

 

0.59 errors/game

 

11 unearned runs allowed tied for 9^th best in the AL

 

+11 Rtot

 

Fangraphs defense +4.1, UZR +3.1 (+0.5 OF, +2.6 IF)

 

 

Cumulative through September/October 2016

 

4.60 runs scored per game was 7th in the AL

 

.760 OPS was 3rd in the AL

 

.317 OBP was 10th in the AL

 

.256 BA was 9th in the AL

 

.443 SLG was 2nd in the AL

 

1.56 HR/game was 1st in the AL

 

.754 OPS with RISP was 10th in the AL (.260/.329/.425 (1305 PA, 1129 AB, 293 H, 480 TB, 427 TOB)

 

 

4.22 ERA was 10th in the AL

 

1.13 HR allowed per game was 5th best in the AL

 

4.41 RA was tied for 8th in the AL

 

4.72 starters' ERA was 13th in the AL

 

3.40 bullpen ERA was 1st in the AL

 

5.47 IP/start was 12th in the AL

 

68 save opportunities was 4th in the AL

 

54 saves was 2nd in the AL

 

14 blown saves was 2nd fewest in the AL

 

80 errors was 4th best in the AL

 

33 unearned runs allowed was tied for 4th fewest in the AL

 

-12 Rtot

 

-12.6 UZR (+24.1 IF, -36.7 OF) was 11th in the AL

 

-12.6 fangraphs defense was 11th in the AL

 

 

Conclusion:    Improbably, the pitching carried the day for the Orioles down the stretch.    The team was 10th in runs/game in September/October, in the lower half in most offensive categories other than homers, and had a miserable month hitting with runners in scoring position, which had been a strength for most of the season.   On the other hand, both the starters (3.79 ERA) and relievers (1.70 ERA) had an excellent month and the team led the league in ERA in September/October despite finishing 10th on the year (13th through August).    The defensive metrics were in conflict, with the Orioles committing quite a few errors and allowing a lot of unearned runs, but the advanced metrics showing that the defense was above average for the month, and even slightly positive in the outfield (thank you, Michael Bourn).    It just goes to show you, it's a team game and sometimes the parts of the team that are considered weak links can come through at the right time.

 

Another thing that was a bit improbable was the home/road breakdown.    Going into September, the O's were 43-24 at home and 29-37 on the road.   But down the stretch, the Orioles dominated on the road, winning every series they played (all the AL East teams plus Detroit) to go 10-5.    They struggled at home, going 7-7 and getting swept in a four-game home series by Boston a week after winning a road series against them. 

 

It all goes to show, in baseball, you just never know what's going to happen next.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Frobby

[Ohfan67]

Thanks for sharing. Lots of work!

This goes along well with some of your other threads. Baseball seasons can be really weird and this team seems particularly weird. The home runs has led many fans to believe that the team's success is built on offense, but a lot of your analyses suggest that it's the age old adage of pitching and defense. 

I also think Buck Showalter means a lot. A whole lot. The team typically performs late in the year despite how hard he rides the regulars. I think that has a lot to do with him. 

[Frobby]

April 2017

15-8 record

13-7 vs. AL East

8-3 at home

7-5 on the road

6-1 in one-run games

4-1 in extra innings

Batting

4.39 runs/game was tied for 7th in the AL

.243 BA was 7th

.307 OBP was 9th

.406 SLG was 6th

.713 OBP was 8th

1.30 HR/G was 3rd

.287/.382/.483 with RISP (173 PA, 143 AB, 41 H, 69 TB, 66 TOB)

Pitching

4.19 ERA was 13th in the AL

4.35 RA/G was 11th

1.17 HR/G was 9th best

4.26 starter ERA

5.61 IP/start

4.09 bullpen ERA

10 saves was 1st

15 save opportunities was 1st

5 blown saves was tied for 4th most

Defense

2 unearned runs was best in the AL

0.52 errors/game (12 errors)

-4.8 fangraphs defense

-3.6 UZR (as of May 5) (-3.5 OF, -0.1 IF)

-0.3 dWAR (as of May 5)

+1 Rtot (as of May 5)

-5 Rdrs (as of May 5)

Conclusion:  No aspect of the Orioles' offensive, pitching or defensive performance was outstanding in April, but somehow, they produced an outstanding 15-8 record.   Obvioulsy, the excellent performance in one-run games and extra-inning games put them well ahead of their Pythagorean record.    They only outscored their opponents by 1 run in the month.   But guess what, we don't have to give those wins back!   Considering we played 20 games against the AL East (going 13-7), it was a great month for the Orioles even if no particular aspect of their game was great.

 

[Frobby]

Leaders and trailers for April 2017

BA - Castillo .314, Jones .309....Hardy .195, Gentry .194, Joseph .182

HR - Schoop 5, Mancini 5

RBI - Schoop 16, Machado 13

OBP - Jones .369, Kim .350...Mancini .245, Hardy .225, Joseph .182

SLG - Mancini .545, Schoop .538...Trumbo .298, Hardy .273

OPS - Schoop .863, Jones .848, Mancini .823

ERA (starters) - Bundy 1.65, Miley 2.32, Jimenez 7.43, Gausman 7.50 (nobody else started more than once)

[backwardsk]

Will both Givens and Bundy be 20 game winners? Lol.

[Frobby]

May 2017

12-16 record

6-4 vs. AL East

9-5 at home

 3-11 on the road

3-7 in one-run games

3-0 in extra innings

Batting

4.57 runs/game was 9th in the AL

.262 BA was 7th

.314 OBP was 12th

.429 SLG was 9th

.743 OBP was 9th

1.39 HR/G was 7th

.330/.376/.521 with RISP (242 PA, 215 AB, 71 H, 112 TB, 91 TOB)

Pitching

4.48 ERA was 10th in the AL

4.79 RA/G was 11th

1.32 HR/G was 9th best

5.16 starter ERA was worst in the AL

5.17 IP/start was tied for worst in the AL

3.53  bullpen ERA

7 saves was tied for 8th

10 save opportunities was tied for 9th

3 blown saves was tied for 4th fewest

Defense

10 unearned runs tied for 7th fewest in the AL

0.64 errors/game (18 errors)

+1.0 fangraphs defense

+0.3 UZR  (-2.6 OF, +2.9 IF) (May 6-31)

-0.3 dWAR (May 6-31)

0 Rtot (May 6-31)

+1 Rdrs (May 6-31)

 

Cumulative through May

Batting

4.49 R/G was 9th in the AL

.254 BA was 5th

.311 OBP was 13th

.419 SLG was 6th

.730 OPS was 5th

1.35 HR/game was 5th

.313/.380/.506 with RISP (415 PA, 358 AB, 112 H, 181 TB, 157 TOB) (.886 OPS was 1st in AL)

Pitching

4.35 ERA was 11th in the AL

4.59 RA was 10th

4.74 starter ERA was 14th

5.37 IP/start was 14th

3.77 reliever ERA was 6th

17 saves was tied for 2nd

25 save opportunities was 2nd

8 blown saves was tied for 7th fewest

Defense

30 errors was 5th fewest in the AL

12 unearned runs was tied for 3rd fewest

-3.3 fangraphs defense was 11th in the AL

-3.3 UZR was 11th (-6.1 OP, +2.8 IF)

-0.6 dWAR

+1 Rtot

-4 Rdrs

 

Conclusion:   While every facet of the team faltered at one time or another in May, starting pitching was the biggest problem, with both the worst ERA and the worst IP/start in the AL during the month.    The offense was pretty good for the first 18 games, but slumped over the next 9 before breaking out a bit yesterday.   The bullpen was decent overall but had a few egregious failures; it seems to be back on track now.    Defensively, it was a "meh" month.   We lost 7 one-run games in a row at one point Overall, I think we're all ready to turn the page and hope for better things in June.   

 

[Frobby]

Notable performances in May:

OPS: Trumbo .899, Mancini .877, Castillo .846, Davis .824 (though incredibly inconsistent); Jones .646, Machado .629.

HR: Davis 8, Machado 6, Trumbo 5, Jones 5

RBI: Davis 16, Trumbo 15, Jones 15

Starters: Bundy 3-2, 3.92; Miley 0-2, 3.97; Gausman 2-2, 4.30; Tillman 1-2, 5.87; Jimenez 0-1, 5.96 (includes a relief outing).   Asher also started 2 games and Wilson 1.  

Relievers: O'Day 1.64 ERA and 0.82 WHIP; Givens 4.73 ERA and 1.43 WHIP; Brach 5.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

[sportsfan8703]

June: 1-0

[Frobby]

June 2017

12-16 record

6-8 vs. AL East

7-7 at home

5-9 on the road

3-0 in one-run games

2-1 in extra innings

Batting

4.43 runs/game was 13th in the AL

.253 BA was 11th

.305 OBP was 14th

.438 SLG was 10th

.743 OPS was 12th

1.50HR/G was 5th

.263/.308/.511 with RISP (211 PA, 186 AB, 49 H, 95 TB, 65 TOB)

Pitching

6.27 ERA was last in the AL by a lot

6.64 RA/G was last, by a lot

1.93 HR/G was last, by a lot

7.18 starter ERA was worst in the AL

5.01 IP/start was worst in the AL

5.06  bullpen ERA

5 saves was tied for 7th

6 save opportunities was tied for 13th

1 blown save was 3rd fewest

Defense

14 unearned runs tied for 11th fewest in the AL

0.57 errors/game (16 errors)

+2.6 fangraphs defense

+0.6 UZR  (+0.2 OF, +0.4 IF)

-0.7 dWAR

-2 Rtot

-8 Rdrs

 

Cumulative through June

Batting

4.47 R/G was 10th in the AL

.253 BA was 9th

.309 OBP was 14th

.426 SLG was 7th

.735 OPS was 10th

1.41 HR/game was 6th

.296/.357/.507 with RISP (626 PA, 544 AB, 161 H, 276 TB, 222 TOB) (.864 OPS was 1st in AL)

Pitching

5.02 ERA was last in the AL

5.32 RA was 14th

5.57 starter ERA was last, by a lot

5.24 IP/start was last

4.24 reliever ERA was 8th

22 saves was tied for 4th

31 save opportunities was tied for 4th

9 blown saves was tied for 6th fewest

Defense

46 errors was tied for 7th fewest in the AL

26 unearned runs was tied for 5th fewest

-0.7 fangraphs defense was 11th in the AL

-2.7 UZR was 11th (-5.9 OP, +3.2IF)

-0.6 dWAR

-1 Rtot

-12 Rdrs

 

Conclusion:    The O's were outscored by 62 runs this month, and were fortunate to finish 12-16.   The starting pitching gave the O's no chance to win in too many games this month, but no other aspect of the team was very good, either.    Until last night, the bullpen did a good job protecting the few leads they had, but they didn't keep games close in the games they were losing.    The offense was very inconsistent and didn't get on base much.     The fielding was a mixed bag, neither good nor awful.     The team allowed 14 unearned runs despite making only 16 errors, showing how the pitchers managed to pick up their teammates time after time.

The team has played a little better towards the end of the month, but I'm glad to turn the page on June.

[eddie83]

This team is still around .500 due to that improbable start. They need to pick things up across the board if they want to hang around.  

[Frobby]

July 2017

12-14 record

2-3 vs. AL East

7-6 at home

5-8 on the road

2-2 in one-run games

0-0 in extra innings

Batting

5.08 runs/game was 5th in the AL

.270 BA was 5th

.327 OBP was 6th

.442 SLG was 4th

.768 OPS was 5th

1.42 HR/G was 4th

..279/.340/.443 with RISP (235 PA, 201 AB, 56 H, 89 TB, 80 TOB)

Pitching

5.22 ERA was 13th in the AL

5.23 RA/G was 10th

1.50 HR/G was 14th

6.55 starter ERA was 14th

5.23 IP/start was 13th

3.20  bullpen ERA was 4th

4 saves was tied for 11th

5 save opportunities was tied for 13th (last)

1 blown save was 2nd fewest

Defense

5 unearned runs tied for 4th fewest in the AL

0.42 errors/game (11 errors)

-11.2 fangraphs defense

-9.2 UZR  (-6.6 OF, -2.6 IF)

-0.6 dWAR

-15 Rtot

+7 Rdrs

 

Cumulative through July

Batting

4.62 R/G was 8th in the AL

.257 BA was 7th

.313 OBP was 11th

.430 SLG was 5th

.743 OPS was 6th

1.41 HR/game was 5th

.291/.354/.490 with RISP (861 PA, 745 AB, 217 H, 365 TB, 302 TOB) (.844 OPS was 1st in AL)

Pitching

5.07 ERA was last in the AL

5.30 RA/G was last

5.81 starter ERA was last, by a lot

5.24 IP/start was last

4.00 reliever ERA was 7th

26 saves was 6th

36 save opportunities was 11th

10 blown saves was tied for 2nd fewest

Defense

57 errors was 6th fewest in the AL

31 unearned runs was  5th fewest

-11.9 fangraphs defense was 11th in the AL

-11.9 UZR was 12th (-12.5 OF, +0.6 IF)

-1.2 dWAR

-16 Rtot

-5 Rdrs

 

Conclusion:    The Orioles' third straight losing month was once again "highlighted" by horrible starting pitching (6.55 ERA, 5.24 IP/start), though we had a few more good starts than the previous month.    The offense actually was quite solid (5th in runs/game), as was the bullpen (3.20 ERA) but too often the starters simply gave us no chance to win.    The defensive stats are mixed, with the traditional stats saying we had a good month, but most of the advanced stats saying we were terrible in July.    Personally, I did not notice the defense being particularly bad in July, but maybe that's because I was only watching about 20% of the time.

[Frobby]

Hot bats in July:

Schoop .343/.377/.638, 9 HR 28 RBI

Smith .286/.386/.551, 3 HR, 7 RBI

Joseph .349/.391/.535, 2 HR, 6 RBI

Machado .327/.379/.490, 3 HR, 15 RBI

Jones .275/.316/.495, 6 HR, 16 RBI

[maybenxtyr]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hot bats in July:

Schoop .343/.377/.638, 9 HR 28 RBI

Smith .286/.386/.551, 3 HR, 7 RBI

Joseph .349/.391/.535, 2 HR, 6 RBI

Machado .327/.379/.490, 3 HR, 15 RBI

Jones .275/.316/.495, 6 HR, 16 RBI

Schoop has himself a month! That's all I have though.

[Frobby]

I've been looking forward to doing this month's report because of the gaudy offensive numbers we've been putting up.

August 2017

17-12 record

3-1 vs. AL East

10-6 at home

7-6 on the road

4-4 in one-run games

1-0 in extra innings

Batting

6.03 runs/game was 1st in the AL

.306 BA was 1st

.347 OBP was 3rd

.534 SLG was 1st

.882 OPS was 1st

1.97 HR/G was 1st

.340/.388/.557 with RISP (276 PA, 244 AB, 83 H, 136 TB, 107 TOB)

Pitching

4.12 ERA was 9th in the AL

4.28 RA/G was 8th

1.48 HR/G was 9th

4.86 starter ERA was 10th

5.66 IP/start was 6th

2.80  bullpen ERA was 4th

6 saves was tied for 8th

11 save opportunities was tied for 5th

5 blown saves was 2nd most

Defense

6 unearned runs was 4th fewest in the AL

0.66 errors/game (19 errors)

-0.5 fangraphs defense

-3.5 UZR  (-3.9 OF, +0.4 IF)

-0.3 dWAR

+13 Rtot

-11 Rdrs

 

Cumulative through August

Batting

4.93 R/G was 4th in the AL

.268 BA was 2nd

.319 OBP was 9th

.453 SLG was 2nd

.774 OPS was 4th

1.53 HR/game was 3rd

.303/.362/.507 with RISP (1137 PA, 989 AB, 300 H, 501 TB, 409 TOB) (.869 OPS was 1st in AL)

Pitching

4.86 ERA was 14th in the AL

5.07 RA/G was 12th

5.59 starter ERA was last

5.33 IP/start was last

3.76 reliever ERA was 5th

32 saves was 8th

47 save opportunities was tied for 11th

15 blown saves was 3rd fewest

Defense

76 errors was 6th fewest in the AL

31 unearned runs was  5th fewest

-12.4 fangraphs defense was 11th in the AL

-15.4 UZR was 12th (-16.4 OF, +1.0 IF)

-1.5 dWAR

-3 Rtot

-16 Rdrs

 

Conclusion:  The offense clearly was the story this month, leading the AL in virtually every category.    I believe the 57 homers was the 2nd highest total ever hit by a team in a month.    But homers were far from the whole story, as the team hit .306 for the month, including .340 with runners in scoring position.     Despite the poor performances by Tillman, Ubaldo and Hellickson over the last four days, the starting pitching was better than it's been for most of the year, which is to say, well below average (4.86 ERA, 10th in the league), but not historically bad as at other times this season.    They did manage to give us innings for most of the month (5.66 IP/start, which is solid), until the last few days.    The relief pitchers had an odd month, posting a solid 2.80 ERA and yet managing to blow 5 of 11 save opportunities.   Fortunately, the O's came back to win 3 of the 5 games where saves were blown, including Britton's first blown save in two years.    Defensively, it was a mediocre month, pretty much on par with the season.    Overall, 17-12 ain't too bad, but it could have been better considering the offensive barrage we witnessed.

[Frobby]

Notable performances in August:

Castillo 1.113 OPS, Beckham 1.062, Machado 1.039, Gentry 1.036, Jones .940, Smith .846, Schoop .828, Mancini .818

Machado 12 HR, Jones 7, Castillo, Beckham, Scoop and Mancini each with 6.

Machado 35 RBI, Schoop 23

Bundy 5 starts, 4-0, 2.00 ERA, 11.3 K/9

Miley 2.60 ERA