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vs. MARINERS 5 / 12


OFFNY

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Well, he did give up two bloopers in game one to blow a one run save, but he pitched fine in that game too. He just got unlucky. He has pitched quite well over several weeks though so you're on point.

Forgot that one. Or wiped it from my memory. :P

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A website called The Book — Playing The Percentages In Baseball did the math, and found that the run expectancy for a runner on first with no outs is 0.972. That number for a runner on second with one out — 0.746. So the odds go down, meaning that sacrifice bunting really makes no sense.

Here is the entire table:

Situation No Outs One Out Two Out

Empty 0.551 0.295 0.111

1st 0.972 0.576 0.252

2nd 1.228 0.746 0.337

3rd 1.424 0.980 0.394

1st/2nd 1.649 1.027 0.478

1st/3rd 1.845 1.261 0.535

2nd/3rd 2.101 1.431 0.620

Loaded 2.522 1.717 0.761

I got the same book, but there's more things at play here. They're going for one run, not a rally. What's the chance of three Mariners hitters moving a guy three bases, as opposed to one guy getting a hit out of the infield? The bats are anemic today, so I think they're moreso looking for luck.

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I got the same book, but there's more things at play here. They're going for one run, not a rally. What's the chance of three Mariners hitters moving a guy three bases, as opposed to one guy getting a hit out of the infield? The bats are anemic today, so I think they're moreso looking for luck.

I just used a source to back up the statement of scoring from first with no outs as opposed to second with one.

I would assume with a runner on first, the defensive alignments are different, first base holding the runner, infielders at DP depth, would make it easier to hit. Move a guy from first to third.

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