Just don't understand the optimism about Tillman

[The Rick]

Also, his "intangibles" seem to be lacking. His body language and the way he carries himself exudes a total lack of confidence and his pace is simply atrocious. His delivery is long, slow and it's clear that he's aiming the ball, which is killing velocity and movement. I would be ok with the velocity if I felt like he could hit his spots and effectively utilize his off speed pitches consistently but he's not there yet.

I can understand why folks would think this, but I'm not convinced that's the case. Tillman is a pretty laid back guy and always has that "look" on his face, whether the bases are loaded or he's in the dugout. I think he's shown a lot of poise as he's worked through his control issues. Some of the mechanical issues you mentioned are valid, but that's a separate point. I'm not sure it's necessarily fair to characterize him as having any lack of intangibles or confidence, however.

Again, I think the issue on the message board here is that he's frustrating to watch - but for his last several starts he's kept his team in the game, despite struggling with his command. There's potential there, and the O's of all teams are in no position to now allow Tillman to realize that potential.

[EutawStreet]

Here is one counter-argument from another thread.

1. Again, I will take 5 innings and 1 ER from a #5 starter any day of the week. Like I said, would you rather have 4 or 5 innings with 1 run or 6 or 7 innings with 5 runs?

2. Again, I don't care how many hits, walks, or walked batters he gives up. I don't care that "line drives were luckily hit right at defenders". The point of this game is to win and when it comes down to it, if he is getting the job done then it would be foolish to stop using him in place of a guy who has given up atleast 5 runs in 3 of his last 6 starts.

[El Gordo]

I'm always intrigued at the way Palmer speaks about Tillman whenever he pitches. Palmer never seems like he's anything other than brutally honest and he seems pretty optimistic that Tillman can become a good pitcher once he is more consistent with his mechanics. He's mentioned a few times that his velocity also has a good chance of increasing along with better control obviously. This is all based on what Palmer sees in his mechanics and what I guess he knows Tillman is working on with Connor, which gives me more hope than just looking at his numbers.

Palmer said something interesting last night. He said Tillman's curveball was just like his and he could never get it over for strikes. He said for it to be effective he needed FB command. And that's what Tillman needs. I think Tillman is best served working on his mechanics and secondary pitches in Norfolk where he has less pressure. Clearly he doesn't have the make up of some of our more competitive SP and he needs to develop confidence before he gets thrown to the wolves. If Bergesen has a QS today I think that's what happens.

[Hank Scorpio]

Agreed. Arrieta challenges hitters and Tillman is apparently afraid to do so. There is night and day between their approach right now.

I generally agree with this myself. But to me, Arrieta doesn't challenge hitters enough when he's ahead in the count. I think he's a little too in love with the strikeout and that adversely affects his pitch count. His fastball is plenty good enough to get outs early in counts.

This is admittedly picking nits, Arrieta has been very solid.

I'm with you regarding Tillman. His stuff just doesn't pass the sniff test for me. I know his peripherals look tidy, but his HR/FB ratio is staggeringly low and unsustainable. I'm not claiming that Bergesen would be a significantly better option, but I haven't been impressed with Tillman. There's time, he's young... but I just don't see the stuff right now.

[DrOrioles90210]

Palmer said something interesting last night. He said Tillman's curveball was just like his and he could never get it over for strikes.

Didn't he also say part of the problem was that umpires didn't know how to call it?

Clearly he doesn't have the make up of some of our more competitive SP and he needs to develop confidence before he gets thrown to the wolves.

How do you get to this conclusion?

[El Gordo]

I generally agree with this myself. But to me, Arrieta doesn't challenge hitters enough when he's ahead in the count. I think he's a little too in love with the strikeout and that adversely affects his pitch count. His fastball is plenty good enough to get outs early in counts.

This is admittedly picking nits, Arrieta has been very solid.

I'm with you regarding Tillman. His stuff just doesn't pass the sniff test for me. I know his peripherals look tidy, but his HR/FB ratio is staggeringly low and unsustainable. I'm not claiming that Bergesen would be a significantly better option, but I haven't been impressed with Tillman. There's time, he's young... but I just don't see the stuff right now.

But he wouldn't be significantly worse, and if he finds the sinker, which he has done in the past with some success, he can be significantly better, at least for the short term. I just can't take much more of young Steve Trachsel.

[The Rick]

But he wouldn't be significantly worse, and if he finds the sinker, which he has done in the past with some success, he can be significantly better, at least for the short term. I just can't take much more of young Steve Trachsel.

I hear ya on Bergy. He's one of my favorite O's so it's a tough call for me, but I still think Tillman should get the chance to ride it out based on the fact that he's still got more upside. It's a tough one.

[Sports Guy]

Tillman has a ways to go, but I've very much enjoyed watching him start to figure things out this year. It's disappointing to me that a fanbase that has watched terrible baseball for a decade can't show enough patience to allow a talented young arm to make adjustments and attempt to grow into a useful future piece.

He has 34 career MLB starts. That is fewer than a healthy pitcher would typically make in a single MLB season. I get it -- it's a results-oriented business when you are talking about fans. I just wish folks in general could get behind the idea that development is not always linear.

I could go off on how Matusz was treated the first half of last year and how Wieters has been treated the past two seasons, but I guess it's not really the point.

Thank goodness you came into this thread..Intelligence and sanity is always a welcomed trait into a thread full of impatience and ignorance.

[El Gordo]

Didn't he also say part of the problem was that umpires didn't know how to call it?

How do you get to this conclusion?

Because he doesn't challege hitters like Britton or Arrieta or Guthrie, he nibbles.

[El Gordo]

I hear ya on Bergy. He's one of my favorite O's so it's a tough call for me, but I still think Tillman should get the chance to ride it out based on the fact that he's still got more upside. It's a tough one.

Yes but he's sooooooooooo "young"! he still has plenty of time to work things out in the MiL so I don't have to watch him nibble.

[primetime]

I can understand why folks would think this, but I'm not convinced that's the case. Tillman is a pretty laid back guy and always has that "look" on his face, whether the bases are loaded or he's in the dugout. I think he's shown a lot of poise as he's worked through his control issues. Some of the mechanical issues you mentioned are valid, but that's a separate point. I'm not sure it's necessarily fair to characterize him as having any lack of intangibles or confidence, however.

Again, I think the issue on the message board here is that he's frustrating to watch - but for his last several starts he's kept his team in the game, despite struggling with his command. There's potential there, and the O's of all teams are in no position to now allow Tillman to realize that potential.

Quite simply, this is where I'm at with Tillman. If he can continue to perform around the level he's at now (5-6 innings, 2 ER or less per start) for the remainder of the season, that's very solid for a back end rotation guy. I'm holding on to hope that he's growing and learning but it's just not very "pretty" to watch yet.

One more thing, and bear in mind, this is coming from someone who's just scratching the surface of learning about advanced stats and that little bit of knowledge is on collision course with only following "traditionals stats for 30ish years....... I cannot wrap my head around any metric (FIP, xFIP) that can have Tillman as outperforming Guthrie.

I don't see how Gut's performance (mind you, a level he's been out for 3 out of the last 4 seasons and he's performing at a fairly high level so far this year) can be classified as "lucky" and Tillman's ERA is higher because he's deemed "unlucky". Having watched both Guthrie and Tillman pitch, guys may put the ball in play more often vs. Guts but Tillman has more "loud" outs. The distinct advantage that Tillman has over Guthrie is keeping the ball in the park.

Not trying to stir anything up, I'm just having a hard time understanding it. I suppose it will make more sense to me as I learn more of the SABR stuff.

[DrOrioles90210]

Because he doesn't challege hitters like Britton or Arrieta or Guthrie, he nibbles.

Should he really be challenging hitters with his stuff at this point, though? Not throwing an 88-91 mph fastball down the middle of the plate to challenge hitters shows me he's not an idiot more than it shows me he's lacking confidence or that he's not competitive.

[Malike]

Tillman is frustrating to watch, I agree. I don't think he's a washed up has-been, but I don't enjoy watching him pitch. He works too slowly, he just looks uncomfortable out there on the mound. His stuff is flat, and he doesn't seem to have much confidence in it. I dread the Bergesen/Tillman games.

[El Gordo]

Tillman is frustrating to watch, I agree. I don't think he's a washed up has-been, but I don't enjoy watching him pitch. He works too slowly, he just looks uncomfortable out there on the mound. His stuff is flat, and he doesn't seem to have much confidence in it. I dread the Bergesen/Tillman games.

This.:agree:

[now]

There are a lot of "clearly"s on both sides of this debate; so what is more clear is that most folks (myself included) have made up their mind already and not changing it based on a couple of starts.

So back into the fray...

Clearly he doesn't have the make up of some of our more competitive SP and he needs to develop confidence before he gets thrown to the wolves.

What is clear to you is not clear to me here. I draw a different conclusion from what I see... that Tillman does have a bulldog makeup (bulldog vs. wolves), that he - here goes:) doesn't "give in" - and that more often than not, he finds a way to get out of the jams he creates.

Because he doesn't challege hitters like Britton or Arrieta or Guthrie, he nibbles.

Right, so the learning curve is longer (see above: pitching). Because he lacks that put-away FB his arsenal is broader; he has more to work on. It's a work in progress, not a given from the get-go. I for one actually do enjoy watching him learn on the job, despite the anxiety it creates, pitch by pitch, along the way.