Dave Cameron: Big Ticket Signings Don't Drive Attendance

[Roll Tide]

Back to the big ticket signings.... What I hear some posters say hang onto the money until the team is a player away. The problem with the Orioles is that once that money vanishes from the table its gone. Consider that the Orioles have been all but passing on free agents and the payroll is not relative to where they ranked in the mid 90s Angelos must have 100 of millions stuffed away in the rainy day fund.

In the Orioles case a couple of big signings Darvish, Fielder, and Cepedes would impact the end result. That coupled with the fact that the fan base hasnt has squat to be excited about since 1997. I'd be ok with adding a player when he's available rather than going after the top FA player just for the sake of him being the top player.

The Orioles need a cleanup hitter and a 1B. Fielder makes the most sense. I agree that its hard to imagine Angelos making it happen...But they havent had a good 1B or #4 hitter since Raffy signed here the 1st time and you'd have to go back to Murray the 1st time before that.

The Orioles havent had a TOR since Mussina and thats been a very long time now.

They could do both and it would likely add 10-15 wins to the club just for those two. I know the statmeisters here will want to look at Prince's war & project for Darvish and call it a day. But I think there will be a trickle down. If Markakis is batting 3 he would instantly see better pitches to hit. In addition since Prince is a on base machine the guys behind him will benefit from a rattled pitcher or jammed bases. I think you have to consider a adjustment for that.

For Darvish ...If he's truly a #1 And I get that theres a risk... He makes Guthrie better by not having to face the other teams ace every 5th day. The increased run support that the offense would provide can only help Guthrie and make it easier for him to relax & not worry if the 2 runs he got in the 4th inning will be enough.

The other guys we picked up so far probably give you 1-2 additional wins over their replacements.

I think its time for the Orioles to take some chances. Some excitement around the organization would be welcome by the fans & the Orioles and basically a Win/Win. It would be a commitment to the fans that they are serious about winning.

This is just my 2 cents.

[maybenxtyr]

I think they need to sign elite free agents at positions of need when they are available. Fielder is now... When is the next .300 40 homer 1b avail in fre agency? The Orioles don't currently have one in their system that they can bank on.

This is how I feel. Sign players that are available when you need them, and you can afford them. Then continue looking at international talent/rule v/and trades.

There really isn't a specific one size fits all method here. Prince fills a position of need. Sign him, and as much as I like AJ, explore the extension or trade market for him. Committing money for a free agent this off season does not mean sign a guy and ne done. It should mean a chance to open other doors to improve the team moving forward. Rome was not built in a day. This would take a couple of aggressive off seasons to really bear fruit.

[Roll Tide]

This is how I feel. Sign players that are available when you need them, and you can afford them. Then continue looking at international talent/rule v/and trades.

There really isn't a specific one size fits all method here. Prince fills a position of need. Sign him, and as much as I like AJ, explore the extension or trade market for him. Committing money for a free agent this off season does not mean sign a guy and ne done. It should mean a chance to open other doors to improve the team moving forward. Rome was not built in a day. This would take a couple of aggressive off seasons to really bear fruit.

I can hear the computer crickets chirping ... Cant believe no one wants to chime in on this very subject.

[allstar1579]

I think they need to sign elite free agents at positions of need when they are available. Fielder is now... When is the next .300 40 homer 1b avail in fre agency? The Orioles don't currently have one in their system that they can bank on.

Probably in 2 years, and we are much more likely to be contention ready then than now. Not that I'm saying I'm completely against signing Fielder, but pumping that money into other areas to produce more talent ready in 2 years seems like a better investment than paying one guy a lot of money and doing nothing else to improve the team.

[atomic]

How do you define stars? Who do the Rays have thats a star, aside from perhaps Longoria?

And what is there attendance like? Close to worst in the league, I believe

[SrMeowMeow]

I can hear the computer crickets chirping ... Cant believe no one wants to chime in on this very subject.

I'm chimed out on this topic. Prince Fielder is not a "generational talent". He's not the only slugger available for the near future, despite what people claim (wait, I thought Teixeira was the last...weird.) There are always 4-6 WAR players available. And, most importantly, and for the zillionth time, we'd be wasting his prime years and scores of millions of dollars on non-contending teams.

That's why it's not a good idea. If we can get him at a good price, then I'm interested for the surplus value. But he's not going to "pay for himself in ticket sales". That's what this thread is about. He's not going to elevate us to contention. That's what 500 other threads are about.

[JTrea81]

I can hear the computer crickets chirping ... Cant believe no one wants to chime in on this very subject.

I've always said the Orioles need to acquire the talent to win when it is available.

If you don't want to sign Fielder and compete with this core, then everybody, and that means Wieters and Jones needs to be dealt for maximum return to restock for 2014.

[JTrea81]

I'm chimed out on this topic. Prince Fielder is not a "generational talent". He's not the only slugger available for the near future, despite what people claim (wait, I thought Teixeira was the last...weird.) There are always 4-6 WAR players available. And, most importantly, and for the zillionth time, we'd be wasting his prime years and scores of millions of dollars on non-contending teams.

That's why it's not a good idea. If we can get him at a good price, then I'm interested for the surplus value. But he's not going to "pay for himself in ticket sales". That's what this thread is about. He's not going to elevate us to contention. That's what 500 other threads are about.

There will be no 4-6 WAR players available under 30 in FA for the next several years.

If we don't get one now, we don't get one period unless you want to start talking about trading Machado and Schoop.

Fielder is literally the last slugger that will be available on the FA market that has several prime years left for the next several years. Boras has pointed to that multiple times and he's right. If you pass on Fielder, you'd better have one heck of a Plan B that involves trading top prospects, or just blow the whole darn thing up.

[SrMeowMeow]

There will be no 4-6 WAR players available under 30 in FA for the next several years.

If we don't get one now, we don't get one period unless you want to start talking about trading Machado and Schoop.

Fielder is literally the last slugger that will be available on the FA market that has several prime years left for the next several years. Boras has pointed to that multiple times and he's right. If you pass on Fielder, you'd better have one heck of a Plan B that involves trading top prospects, or just blow the whole darn thing up.

I don't object to Fielder. I object to your arguments, which are always one part tailored to serve your own agenda and two parts wrong.

Remember when Mark Teixeira was the last premium bat ever? Too bad he's averaged 3.7 WAR the past two years. Oops! What about how Pujols and Fielder would definitely extend? Oops!

Next offseason, we could go after Josh Hamilton (32, all ages as of next offseason) or Andre Ethier (31) for LF. Mike Napoli (31) could establish himself as a top 5 hitter this season. Matt Cain, John Danks and Zack Greinke will be 28. Cole Hamels will be 29. There's a ton of potential premium talent on that list. And I'm sure you think they will all extend (you'd be wrong about that, like you were wrong about Pujols and Fielder), or that we need a fat 1B with a fat OPS to contend (disproven like fifty times on OH alone). Maybe fans dig the long ball and will flock to the park to see a star (not consistently), or maybe a star hitter more so than a star pitcher (nope).

You don't care. Basically, you've decided on what you want. And you're willing to manufacture any "argument" you can to justify why we should do what you want, or why we should get mad when it doesn't happen. That's called bad logic (if you do it once) or intellectual dishonesty (if you do it constantly and shamelessly).

[JTrea81]

I don't object to Fielder. I object to your arguments, which are always one part tailored to serve your own agenda and two parts wrong.

Remember when Mark Teixeira was the last premium bat ever? Too bad he's averaged 3.7 WAR the past two years. Oops! What about how Pujols and Fielder would definitely extend? Oops!

Next offseason, we could go after Josh Hamilton (32, all ages as of next offseason) or Andre Ethier (31) for LF. Mike Napoli (31) could establish himself as a top 5 hitter this season. Matt Cain, John Danks and Zack Greinke will be 28. Cole Hamels will be 29. There's a ton of potential premium talent on that list. And I'm sure you think they will all extend (you'd be wrong about that, like you were wrong about Pujols and Fielder), or that we need a fat 1B with a fat OPS to contend (disproven like fifty times on OH alone). Maybe fans dig the long ball and will flock to the park to see a star (not consistently), or maybe a star hitter more so than a star pitcher (nope).

You don't care. Basically, you've decided on what you want. And you're willing to manufacture any "argument" you can to justify why we should do what you want, or why we should get mad when it doesn't happen. That's called bad logic (if you do it once) or intellectual dishonesty (if you do it constantly and shamelessly).

You prove my point as you mentioned no players under 30. Hamilton will want a 6+ year deal. At 32 with his injury history, that's a bigger risk than Fielder. And Hamilton could extend anyway.

Ethier might as well be wearing a Red Sox uniform at this point.

And Napoli will have to have one more season like last season to prove he wasn't a fluke.

I never said Fielder would extend with the Brewers, and actually said I wouldn't have wanted to sign him to an extension if we did trade for him as we'd be able to get him cheaper on the FA market.

And as for pitching, I wasn't talking about pitching. The fact that the pitching will be better than the hitting after 2012 and that's the reverse this offseason, is actually a main factor for going after offense this offseason.

I'm not manufacturing anything, just stating fact.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm not manufacturing anything, just stating fact.

You've manufactured the requirement for a top-shelf major league free agent who is an offensive force in his mid-to-late 20s. Then you've made filling that requirement with Prince Fielder an absolute need by saying that exact type of player is rarely available.

The facts are that the real requirement is to win more baseball games, and there are lots of ways to do that without signing Prince Fielder to an insane contract that Angelos would never write the check to cover anyway. As SrMeowMeow stated, there are lots of other options available every offseason. There's no reason you couldn't fill that requirement with less-expensive players who are a bit older. Or by acquiring several players with lower ceilings to diversify risk. Or to build more through pitching and defense. Or to make a bunch of trades and retool the foundation of the organization.

Your myopic tunnel vision blinds you to a world of choices available to the organization.

[atomic]

Part of me actually hopes the Orioles get Fielder and win 72 games for the next 4 years just to see how Trea reacts and what the spin would be.

I think adding Fielder and subtracting Reynolds to the current team would probably put them at around 78 wins. That is what the 2004 club did and I would argue that the pitching staff on this team next year would be better than the 2004 team.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I think adding Fielder and subtracting Reynolds to the current team would probably put them at around 78 wins. That is what the 2004 club did and I would argue that the pitching staff on this team next year would be better than the 2004 team.

Just based on WAR it would be 74 wins. Why do you think there would be four additional wins?

[NewMarketSean]

I think adding Fielder and subtracting Reynolds to the current team would probably put them at around 78 wins. That is what the 2004 club did and I would argue that the pitching staff on this team next year would be better than the 2004 team.

Not so sure about that. The 2004 rotation was spit-balled together at many points in the season but Ray Miller got the most out of them. We haven't had a PC make as much of a difference since...except for MAYBE Kranitz.