Dave Cameron: Big Ticket Signings Don't Drive Attendance

[SrMeowMeow]

I read the original posting link and I didn't agree with everything stated.

My idea is that the increased revenues = increased interest which = more money and the cycle continues.

It seems that we've accepted the current cycle of awful signings and low expectations to the point where we argue for front office incompetency and frugality.

Right, that's one school of thought, but the article strongly suggests it's not correct.

[SrMeowMeow]

If we had two premium guys we'd be a 87-90+ win team. 90-95 wins would put you in the 2nd WC or pretty darn close.

We'd certainly be competitive, and the payroll would be high to start but would drop as you lose guys like Roberts and Markakis.

A three year deal to a guy like Beltran or Oswalt would also be off the books and they would hopefully be replaced by guys from our minors.

In effect they would be premium stopgaps.

So you boost the payroll, win more games, get more fans to attend games and then hike the price of tickets to pay for the increased payroll and for extra $ for international signings if you must. This is exactly what the Red Sox did.

I think we'd all pay more to see a winner and a playoff team.

No, I think two premium guys gets you to 85 wins. You can't just massage an already massaged number to 90-95 because you want it to be that high. To buy those extra 5-10 wins, we'd have to spend 20-40M in free agency or have 5-10 more wins come from cost-controlled players.

[JTrea81]

No, I think two premium guys gets you to 85 wins. You can't just massage an already massaged number to 90-95 because you want it to be that high. To buy those extra 5-10 wins, we'd have to spend 20-40M in free agency or have 5-10 more wins come from cost-controlled players.

Two premium guys gets you to 85 wins with no internal improvement from the roster. And I never said 90-95 rather 87-90+. We'd need some outstanding performance and some trade deadline pickups like most teams to get the "+" make it to the playoffs.

And of course you need to account for sub-replacement performance.

You do have a much better shot at the playoffs though with increased talent vs. treading water and hoping for cost-controlled overachievers like we have been doing for the past few years.

[allstar1579]

Two premium guys gets you to 85 wins with no internal improvement from the roster. And I never said 90-95 rather 87-90+. We'd need some outstanding performance and some trade deadline pickups like most teams to get the "+" make it to the playoffs.

And of course you need to account for sub-replacement performance.

You do have a much better shot at the playoffs though with increased talent vs. treading water and hoping for cost-controlled overachievers like we have been doing for the past few years.

Two premium players doesn't get you a thing. It gives you more talent on your team and a better CHANCE at more wins. Don't try to quantify it, it doesn't work like that. The Red Sox on paper should have won a ton more than they did last year, that didn't work out.

You have NO shot at the playoffs by putting 2 good players on a crappy team. Until you have the cheap pieces in place (or at least most of them) to go with those expensive players, you aren't going anywhere.

[BilboBaggins]

Right, that's one school of thought, but the article strongly suggests it's not correct.

I respect what you're saying as I respect the original article post. I said I didn't agree with everything stated.

I don't believe that signing one or two high-priced premium guys will catapult the Orioles into the playoffs. I do believe that signing some quality talent to plug glaring holes make us a better team and then makes it easier to improve by adding a couple of pieces the next year. Meanwhile, we can continue to strengthen our minors and international scouting (which is happening as we speak).

Why does it always have to be an "either/or" proposition?

[mweb]

Part of me actually hopes the Orioles get Fielder and win 72 games for the next 4 years just to see how Trea reacts and what the spin would be.

The spin would be that they didn't bring in any or enough other premium players.

[allstar1579]

I respect what you're saying as I respect the original article post. I said I didn't agree with everything stated.

I don't believe that signing one or two high-priced premium guys will catapult the Orioles into the playoffs. I do believe that signing some quality talent to plug glaring holes make us a better team and then makes it easier to improve by adding a couple of pieces the next year. Meanwhile, we can continue to strengthen our minors and international scouting (which is happening as we speak).

Why does it always have to be an "either/or" proposition?

This is a very good and accurate statement. I've seen the either/or thing about 100 times this weekend, and I don't think that's how it is at all. In 5 years I've learned a lot of these posters pretty well and a lot of them being accused of either or don't mean that, they would be ok picking up a guy here or there long term that would be around when everything else was ready. If we signed Fielder for example and he was going to be around for 7-8 years no one would complain, because he would be here when the team is built up around him. Where the disagreements come in is with wanting to run out and sign 4-5 guys in one offseason, and certain factions thinking that will make us a contending team next year. It just won't happen that way. Even in the Fielder scenario, people are afraid that the FO will sew the wallet shut after that big signing and will forgo signing a bunch of the IFA guys that are so key.

It's really going to be like this until the FO shows us that they are not going to do things they way they did before. The day I lost all respect for this org. was when I heard from a top official that he didn't think signing upper level IFA was a good investment so he wouldn't do that. When these upper level guys are going for $4m over 6 years control. Then they turn around and throw $6m for ONE YEAR of a middle of the pack RP.

[SrMeowMeow]

I respect what you're saying as I respect the original article post. I said I didn't agree with everything stated.

I don't believe that signing one or two high-priced premium guys will catapult the Orioles into the playoffs. I do believe that signing some quality talent to plug glaring holes make us a better team and then makes it easier to improve by adding a couple of pieces the next year. Meanwhile, we can continue to strengthen our minors and international scouting (which is happening as we speak).

Why does it always have to be an "either/or" proposition?

All I'm addressing in the OP is the mistaken idea that just signing a premium free agent will revitalize a fanbase. I'm not saying anything else.

[Frobby]

In a few minutes, the Angels will officially introduce Albert Pujols at Angels stadium in Anaheim.

There is a massive crowd waiting to welcome him to the team. It's going to be covered on MLB TV right now.

They sold 50% more season ticket packages already.

I refuse to believe that signing a major talent doesn't help the team.

Someone asked me for proof of increased season ticket sales for the Angels based on the Pujols and Wilson signings:

"In the three days since agreeing to terms with Pujols and Wilson, the Angels have sold more than 1,000 season tickets and received in excess of 500 online orders for ticket packages."

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/7339334/4000-plus-fans-watch-los-angeles-angels-present-albert-pujols-cj-wilson

Hmmm, I don't think that 1,000 season tickets and 500 order for ticket packages represents a 50% increase in ticket packages. So far as I can tell, this represents a possible attendance increase of between 80,000-120,000 compared to the 3.16 mm the Angels drew last year. And that assumes that all the packages purchased in the last 3 days are new customers rather than renewals, which probably isn't the case.

[allstar1579]

Hmmm, I don't think that 1,000 season tickets and 500 order for ticket packages represents a 50% increase in ticket packages. So far as I can tell, this represents a possible attendance increase of between 80,000-120,000 compared to the 3.16 mm the Angels drew last year. And that assumes that all the packages purchased in the last 3 days are new customers rather than renewals, which probably isn't the case.

Especially because ALL MLB teams are sending out renewals right now. It's PR spin to try to get people to jump on the bandwagon.

[Bradysburns]

I guess you just had some preconceived thought in your head when you wrote this in response to my post because it doesn't have anything to do with what I said.

I said in my post that it needs to be both ways, but it's about the timing. It does no good to waste money on FA when you don't have the core to go with them yet. You have a limited time window on the cheap controllable core you need, so you have to time them correctly with the additional pieces.

Name a FA signing that helped THIS team get to the playoffs. Or a team that was a top drafting team that went to the playoffs the next year after signing a big FA.

No one is saying all FA are bad, but wasting limited resources on FA when you still need a ton of other players isn't a smart investment.

You're right - my apologies for lumping you into that category. But I think there's a place for middling FA's like Vasquez, and even good ones like Cespedes, right now. I just don't think that an elite FA makes sense quite yet.

I would add that Palmeiro, Surhoff, Bordick, Eric Davis, Harold Baines, Randy Myers, Orosco, Alomar, Jimmy Key and others were all signed as free agents and took the Orioles deep into the playoffs. Not that I'm advocating that type of all-or-nothing approach to free agency - nor am I advocating the opposite. I think we need some kind of hybrid.

[Barnaby Graves]

You're right - my apologies for lumping you into that category. But I think there's a place for middling FA's like Vasquez, and even good ones like Cespedes, right now. I just don't think that an elite FA makes sense quite yet.

I would add that Palmeiro, Surhoff, Bordick, Eric Davis, Harold Baines, Randy Myers, Orosco, Alomar, Jimmy Key and others were all signed as free agents and took the Orioles deep into the playoffs. Not that I'm advocating that type of all-or-nothing approach to free agency - nor am I advocating the opposite. I think we need some kind of hybrid.

Back when we signed those players, our payroll was much higher relative to the rest of major league baseball.

[Roll Tide]

I think they need to sign elite free agents at positions of need when they are available. Fielder is now... When is the next .300 40 homer 1b avail in fre agency? The Orioles don't currently have one in their system that they can bank on.

[ma-grade]

for us to go after Fielder they would have needed to spend the money wisely they have wasted. i mean Brian Roberts is very injury prone and needs to be trade bait for a new second baseman. that could free up money for Fielder but the selling point is very hard to find with him. what can we show him to drive him here ? a big top free agent isn't going to come here unless they are all about the money and frankly i do not see us spending that kind of money on him. that is why Duquette said not to get our hopes up. and to tell you the truth i hope he is wrong and comes through for us

[DrungoHazewood]

for us to go after Fielder they would have needed to spend the money wisely they have wasted. i mean Brian Roberts is very injury prone and needs to be trade bait for a new second baseman. that could free up money for Fielder but the selling point is very hard to find with him. what can we show him to drive him here ? a big top free agent isn't going to come here unless they are all about the money and frankly i do not see us spending that kind of money on him. that is why Duquette said not to get our hopes up. and to tell you the truth i hope he is wrong and comes through for us

Trade bait? Roberts has been paid $20M for 1 win over the last two years, and he's owed another $20M for his age 34-35 seasons. He has negative value. The Orioles would have to eat $10-15M of his contract to have any hope of trading him. And that's if Angelos would even allow one of his guys and pretty much the de facto captain of the team to be traded.

Aside from miraculous heath, I think the best-case scenario for Roberts is a negotiated buyout where they save a few $million, and retirement.