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JAKE Today


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I don't think today's loss is on Jake. Frankly, if he's allowed to face Shoppach he probably finishes with 6 IP, 3 ER against a tough offense on a day where he didn't have his best command, and we have a good chance of winning.

While it's true he was lucky to get out of the 2nd and 3rd without allowing more than 2 runs, the Nava solo HR is simply one of those things that happened. He could easily have thrown that slider with a bit more tilt and finished 6 IP, 2 ER, and everyone would be saying what a quality, gritty start it was. If we won, you can be sure people would be praising Jake for his ability to 'grind' through 6 IP and put us in a place to win, and people would be asking: just how good will he be when he puts it together, not, as they are now, when the $%!& is he gonna put it together?

This might sound apologetic, but the point is: looking at one start in a vacuum like this, we're dealing with very fine lines between what's labelled 'success' and 'failure', and we have to accept that some of it might even be down to luck. Hell, if you throw that same pitch to Nava in that same count 10 times, he probably doesn't hit a HR on it more than 3 of those 10. It's a ridiculous theoretical, sure, but I think it speaks to the point...

Long term I think Jake will always be rather inconsistent. People talking about him having ace/#2 potential I think are wearing rose-colored glasses. He doesn't induce GBs well enough to be a dominant GB pitcher, he doesn't strike people out enough to be a power pitcher, and he doesn't have good enough control to be a real pitcher's pitcher.

That, to me, is evident in today's performance: you saw, how against a team like the Red Sox, arguably his biggest problem was putting hitters away. The difference between Matusz and Jake today and yesterday is Matusz was able to put hitters away with 2 strikes, whereas Jake doesn't necessarily have the repertoire to consistently keep hitters off-balance with 2 strikes.

Jake, to me, is a valuable starter-- he can be a #4 on a good team, with upside of a #3. This year I would not be surprised to see him with an ERA under 4.50. But there's little that suggests that he will ever be the TOR starter that I think some are still holding out hope he can be. Frankly, I'm not sure where that idea entered people's heads--look at his ML/MiL track record, there's nothing that suggests TOR starter. Even in his 11 starts at 1.85 ERA at age 24 in Norfolk, take a look at the peripherals...chances are the ERA would've risen over a bigger sample size.

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I have to wonder how much Exposito behind the plate affected him. Anyone have the O's record with Expo behind the plate? Just wondering.

Staff ERA with Wieters catching: 3.25 (1418 PAs)

Staff ERA with Exposito catching: 5.46 (255 PAs)

Staff ERA with Paulino catching: 3.48 (192 PAs)

Weighted average, non-Wieters ERA: 4.61

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Jake, we need you to come up big tonight, similar to earlier this month when you were the stopper in the second game of the series against the Yankees in the Bronx. We needed that game badly, as we need this game badly.

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Jake, we need you to come up big tonight, similar to earlier this month when you were the stopper in the second game of the series against the Yankees in the Bronx. We needed that game badly, as we need this game badly.

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I echo this sentiment. We need a win tonight whether it comes from Jake pitching great or the offense overcoming a poor start.

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Was really hoping Joel Pineiro would not have gotten hurt. I like this rotation:

Hammel

Chen

Matusz

Pineiro

Britton

Keep Arrieta, Hunter, and Tillman in the minors to work out their problems. Way too inconsistent with their fastballs (Jake and Tommy).

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Was really hoping Joel Pineiro would not have gotten hurt. I like this rotation:

Hammel

Chen

Matusz

Pineiro

Britton

Keep Arrieta, Hunter, and Tillman in the minors to work out their problems. Way too inconsistent with their fastballs (Jake and Tommy).

I think it's time to send Jake out ... They brought up a guy that was a starter at AAA. Give him the ball and reward Jake for his poor performances.

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