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Zach Tonight

OFFNY

By OFFNY
in Orioles Talk

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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Need to edit your post, OFFNY. It's now 4ER. Mclouth's error was taken away.

Betemit made an error that last inning, which prevented an out, plus allowed the runners to move up. I'll change it if it stands at 4.

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Flash- bd Veteran All-Star

Flash- bd

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I can't help but feel that the people who are hating on Zach after tonight's game didn't watch, or weren't watching carefully. I'll offer some reasons why he really was good tonight after the game but I just can't believe people really think it makes sense for him to be sent down for the likes of Steve Johnson or Dana Eveland after tonight's start. He was undeniably bad against the Yankees--and I understood (as far as I'm capable of understanding this kind of thing) the ourage and vitriol---but he rebounded nicely and made some good adjustments tonight, even though it doesn't show up in the results (well, in some sense...it does, though, in terms of his peripherals).

I think Britton has the attitude and confidence to make adjustments as he goes that Matusz and Arrieta might be lacking (for disparate reasons, mind), and it showed tonight, and I think will further show as the season goes along. It would be a mistake to take him out of the rotation at this point. I'd still start him every day over Tommy Hunter.

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Brendan25 All-Star

Brendan25

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Britton was sent down after the game, ultimately, when in a playoff race, results matter. I wonder how they are going to patch a 5th starter together. Hammel can't get back fast enough.

See what Steve Johnson has for 2-3 starts. By that time, Hammel wil be really close.

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Flash- bd Veteran All-Star

Flash- bd

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Right, so I promised a defense of Zach, and here it is:

First of all, like I said, I thought he looked really good last night and was hugely unfortunate. Although his ERA last night was 7.20 his xFIP was 3.05, which is pretty much congruent with the kind of performance I thought he put in. I said I thought he was better than Chris Tillman the night before, who, as it turns out had a 3.72 xFIP on the night.

Let's break it down by inning:

1st inning:

1. nubber about 2 ft past the plate, error made by Zach.

2. Swinging strikeout (5 pitches), changeup.

3. Swinging strikeout (5 pitches), slider.

4. First pitch ground ball to Betemit, which, while somewhat sharply hit, was pretty clearly an error.

Comment: So he's struck out 2 batters, taking control of his fate for 2 outs. He's elicited 2 GBs, one of which definitely qualifies as weak contact and the other, well, not qualifying as a LD, certainly. 2 Ks, and 2 GBs of that type will get you 3 outs probably, what, 95% of the time?

5. Zach throws ball one and then throws a 93 MPH 4-seemer high and in which is deposited in the seats for a 3-R HR.

6. First pitch 2-seemer, FB out.

(18 P, 11 S)

2nd Inning:

1. Soft grounder to Zach, 1 out.

2. HR by Olivo on the first pitch, high-and-outside 2-seemer.

3. Kawasaki dribbles first pitch through the hole into RF.

Comment: After seeing Montero swing first pitch on his FB in the first, Seager sit FB 1-0 and HR, Wells swing first pitch FB, and now both Olivo and Kawasaki swing at FBs on the first pitch, Zach makes the adjustment.

4. (First pitch slider)Dustin Ackley singles on 1-2 slider, sharply hit through the hole into RF.

5. (First pitch changeup) Robinson singles on a bouncer through the shifted right side of the infield, run scores.

6. (First pitch slider) 1-1 GB, 2 out.

7. IBB

8. (First pitch slider) Seager "lines" the ball into Zach's glove (this ball was not barreled up--go back and watch it--and was destined for JJ Hardy's mitt, probably on the bounce, as can be seen pretty clearly in the replays)

Comment: Zach allows 2 runs on 2 hard hit balls, one of which was a GB.

(20 P, 13 S)

3rd inning:

1. (First pitch slider) soft ground out.

2. (First pitch slider) soft ground out.

3. (First pitch changeup) Soft FB to center.

(8 P, 5 S)

4th Inning:

1. Kawasaki strikes out swinging (5 pitches), slider.

2. Dustin Ackley strikes out swinging (4 pitches), 2-seemer.

3. 3-2 walk surrendered to Robinson.

4. Robinson thrown out on 3rd pitch to Saunders.

(18 P, 9 S)

5th inning:

1. Saunders called out on strikes (4 pitches), 4-seemer.

2. Jesus Montero grounds out.

3. Kyle Seager called out on strikes (6 pitches), slider.

(12 P, 7 S)

Comment: So, through 5 innings we have: 15 outs, 6 Ks, 5 GB, 2 FB (one weakly hit, one which probably wouldn't have happened if Betemit or Britton make a play they both ought to make in the first), 1 "LD" (really a likely GB), 1 CS. We have 3 hard hit balls: 2 HR (one of which could've not happened) and a sharp ground ball, resulting in 5 R (3 ER).

6th Inning:

1. Casper Wells "triples" on a GB past Betemit at 3rd which Betemit did not even move for because he thought it was foul, which rolls into the corner only for Nate McClouth to slip, yet Zach is charged with a triple.

2. With the infield in, Mike Carp singles through the whole on a ball that is otherwise fielded with a runner on 2nd (with the runner likely held given that it was hit right to where JJ Hardy would've been)

*Buck, with the quick hook, pulls Britton. His runner left on 1st with 0 outs (due to the pulled in infield) goes on to score.

5 IP, 25 BF, 6 K, 12 GB (6 H, 5 Outs, 1 E), 4 FB (2 HR, 2 outs), 1 "LD", 2 BB (1 IBB). (And 3-5 hard hit balls, though this is subjective; I'll say 4: the 2 HRs (one of which shouldn't have happened), the "triple, and the Ackley single.

50% HR/FB%, just 5 outs recorded on 12 GB. 6:1 K:BB ratio (w/ 1 IBB). Relatively pitch efficient: 76 pitches through 5, despite having to get extra outs (83 in total). 11.5% SwSt (about double Tillman's the day before).

You tell me he wasn't unlucky, or that that same performance doesn't produce good results about 75% of the time. Seems to me you'd almost have to have some kind of personal grudge against Zach to do so.

Plot: &batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=

As we can see, did a good job of keeping the ball down. Not often you're punished with 2 HR when you 1) have good stuff and 2) aren't missing up in the zone very much. Compare this to Tillman's plot from the night before: &batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=

On the season Zach has a 8.10 ERA (this is with all 6 of his inherited runners having been allowed to score) 6.46 FIP, 5.00 xFIP, and 4.98 SIERA (best metric), and 5.89 tERA. All 4 of his Small sample, but it's fair to say he's been unlucky (he certainly is from the eye test). (He has had a

Amazingly, though, his peripherals are better in several significant categories as opposed to his (comparatively successful) rookie season:

GB/FB

2011: 1.86

2012: 2.43

LD%

2011: 18.8%

2012: 12.2%

GB + FB%

2011: 52.8%/ 28.4%

2012: 62.2%/ 25.6%

HR/FB%

2011: 8.6%

2012: 23.8% (<---bad luck)

K/9

2011: 5.66

2012: 6.56

LOB %

2011: 63.4%

2012: 57.5% (low, again, suggesting bad luck, anamolousness, whatever you want to call it)

Zach's big problems so far have been:

1) bad control (6.17 BB/9--way too high, but this has mainly been on a start-start basis. Against Minnesota he totally lost his control, against Cleveland--where he was completely dominant--he walked 2 in 6 IP, against Oakland he had 3 in 5 2/3, in NY he was awful, and he had 1 BB (+1 IBB) yesterday in 6 IP. His F-strike is too low (48.3%).

2) Ridiculously high HR/FB, helped by the fact that hitters have been sitting on 1st pitch FBs, to which he's just now making the adjustment.

My eyes tell me Zach's stuff is good, his control is not nearly as bad as people are making it out to be (his plot from the most recent outing is consistent with his other plots, he's done a very good job of staying down in the zone, and isn't missing by much. Control hasn't been a big issue across Zach's career, and I still don't see it as that big of an issue. There's huge improvements to be made in this area--no doubt--but there's little reason it would prevent success over the course of the rest of the season), and he's been extremely unlucky in 2 starts (OAK, SEA), excellent (as dominant as Tillman was against Seattle in his debut, IMO) in 1 start (CLE), nervy-but-not-disastrously-bad in 1 start (@MIN-debut), and really bad in 1 start (@NYY).

While it's clear Matusz and Arrieta had a ton to work on--and could benefit greatly from being down at AAA, I just don't see that being the case with Zach. He's improved his breaking ball since last year and throwing it more (18.7% this year to 12.2% last year), his 2-seemer is fantastic but still touch-and-go command wise, and his change-up is about average.

I have a hard time believing Tommy Hunter is a better option than him. Steve Johnson is no great shakes either but he arguably has 3 ML pitches, whereas Tommy has 1, and hitters seem to get about as good swings off of his one ML pitch (FB) as they off of Johnson's.

Zach is still our 4th best starter, IMO, and needs to be making his next start in Baltimore. When Hammel comes back whoever between he and Johnson pitches better can move to the 5 starter role. I don't think there's any debating that Tommy is better suited for the bullpen.

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Flash- bd Veteran All-Star

Flash- bd

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6 ER on 3 H, and 7 total base-runners? And 7 K?

I don't think the effect of being sent down should underestimated here. Zach probably feels a little hard done by and you could imagine his concentration might not be there (reading between the lines, seems like the stuff was definetely there tonight). I really think Zach is a guy that needs to work things out at the big league level.

(Now, go ahead and complain about my apolog-ism:D)

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