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vs Yankees 8/31


Tony-OH

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Not to steal OFFNY's thunder here, but I wanted to post a good preview from baseball reference!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2012/NYA201208310.shtml

Miguel Gonzalez (28, RHP, 5-3, 3.66) vs Hiroki Kuroda (37, RHP, 12-9, 2.98)

O's lineup vs Kuroda:

                                                                                                              PA AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP   SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missGMark Reynolds      24 23  4  0  0  0   4  1 10 .174 .208  .174  .382  0  0   0   0         0Nate McLouth       12 12  2  1  0  0   1  0  1 .167 .167  .250  .417  0  0   0   0         1J.J. Hardy          6  6  0  0  0  0   0  0  1 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0Chris Davis         5  4  1  1  0  0   1  0  2 .250 .200  .500  .700  0  1   0   0         0Adam Jones          3  2  1  0  0  0   0  1  0 .500 .667  .500 1.167  0  0   0   0         0Nick Markakis       3  3  1  0  0  0   0  0  0 .333 .333  .333  .667  0  0   0   0         0Matt Wieters        3  2  1  0  0  0   0  0  0 .500 .667  .500 1.167  0  0   0   1         0Robert Andino       2  2  0  0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0Omar Quintanilla    2  2  1  1  0  0   0  0  0 .500 .500 1.000 1.500  0  0   0   0         0Taylor Teagarden    2  2  1  1  0  0   0  0  1 .500 .500 1.000 1.500  0  0   0   0         0Total              62 58 12  4  0  0   6  2 15 .207 .242  .276  .518  0  1   0   1         1

Yankees vs Gonzalez

                                                                                                               PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP   SLG   OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missGRobinson Cano        3  3 0  0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0Eric Chavez          3  3 2  0  0  1   2  0  0 .667 .667 1.667 2.333  0  0   0   0         0Curtis Granderson    3  3 0  0  0  0   0  0  2 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0Raul Ibanez          3  3 2  0  0  1   1  0  1 .667 .667 1.667 2.333  0  0   0   0         0Derek Jeter          3  3 1  0  0  0   0  0  0 .333 .333  .333  .667  0  0   0   0         0Ichiro Suzuki        3  3 1  0  0  1   1  0  0 .333 .333 1.333 1.667  0  0   0   0         0Nick Swisher         3  3 0  0  0  0   0  0  2 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0Mark Teixeira        3  3 0  0  0  0   0  0  3 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0Chris Stewart        2  2 0  0  0  0   0  0  0 .000 .000  .000  .000  0  0   0   0         0Total               26 26 6  0  0  3   4  0  8 .231 .231  .577  .808  0  0   0   0         0
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What would the score have to be to make up the run differential in one game?
The Yankees are in first place. Their RD is +96. The Rays are in third place behind us. Their RD is +72. Linearizing this, the midpoint between 72 and 96 is 84.

Since the Orioles are currently at a RD of -44, they would have to score 128 runs more than their opponent in one game in order to make their RD linearly consistent with the AL East rankings. Since the Yankees are our opponent and any runs they score would raise the midpoint, we would have to score an additional .5 runs for every run that the Yankees score in the game. So if the Yankees scored two runs, we'd have to score a new total of 129 runs. In one game. If we did that, I don't think the Yankees pitchers would be able to stand tomorrow. Joe Girardi would have to be the starter and the public address announcer would have to be the closer, with random fans in the lineup because all their position player would be so exhausted from trying to catch home runs and base hits and missing them.

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The teams that have the closest to the same RD as us are:

  • San Diego with -47, and they're 61-71 on the season
  • NY Mets with -36, and they're 61-70 on the season
  • Kansas City with -51, and they're 59-71 on the season
  • Toronto with -32, and they're 59-71 on the season

Noteworthy is that the only team on that list that is in last place in their division is Toronto. The rest are at least one rank up from last place. The last place teams in most divisions except the AL East and AL West have a run differential of -91 or worse, which means that even if we played to our pythag, we'd be better than the last place teams of every division except for the AL East and West.

If we played to our pythag, we'd have a better record than the Cubs, Astros, Padres, Rockies, Marlins, Twins, Indians, and Royals. We would be the 9th worst team in baseball. As it stands, we're easily in the top ten. So we crossed over the entire span of "middle" teams from the 10th worst to the 10th best (the 10 teams in the middle) while maintaining a pythag that would statistically befit a team in the bottom 10. Amazing.<p><p>Additionally, there are only three instances in the major leagues right now where a team with a lower run differential is ranked higher than a team with a better run differential. The other instances besides the Orioles are:

  • The Cardinals are 8.5 games back of the Reds in the NL Central, despite having a run differential difference of +27 over the Reds.
  • The Twins are 2.0 games back of the Indians in the AL Central, despite having a run differential difference of +47 over the Indians.

For comparison:

  • The Rays are 1.5 games back of the Orioles in the AL East, despite having a run differential difference of +116 over the Orioles.
  • The Red Sox are 11 games back of the Orioles in the AL East, despite having a run differential difference of +66 over the Orioles.
  • The Blue Jays are 13 games back of the Orioles in the AL East, despite having a run differential difference of +12 over the Orioles.

Let me say that another way. The Blue Jays have scored 12 more runs than they have allowed compared to the number of runs the Orioles have scored vs. the number the Orioles have allowed, and the Blue Jays would have to play us 13 times and win every time to tie us for second place in the AL East.<p><p>Last thing: not to pick on Houston, but while we're studying RD, let's look at theirs. Houston has allowed a whopping 194 more runs to score than they have themselves produced. A typical amount of time taken to run from home plate around the bases back to home is 14 seconds, with some players exceeding and some taking more time. If you were to let 194 typical players run the bases consecutively, it would take around 45 minutes. That means Houston (mostly the players and broadcasters, since the fans aren't watching) has spent 45 minutes of their lives this season alone, watching opposing players run around the bases to score more runs than them. And that's with players in a full run, not the triumphant kind of home run jog that players like Prince Fielder do.

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