Adam Dunn on the Block?

[Sports Guy]

Actually, Tejada is a much better hitter than Dunn.

When i say that, i am talking BA. Not saying that is how to measure it but if there was 2 outs in the ninth with a runner on third, i certainly think Tejada is more capable of getting the hit over Dunn.

[elextrano8]

You need to prioritize. No one is claiming Adam Dunn is flawless.

This is the key to the whole debate. Adam Dunn is flawed ballplayer, and he definitely has some major flaws, such as his defense, low BA, and high K rates. But these flaws are FAR outweighed by what he does well, namely hit for power and get on base.

And throw me into the Dunn for #2 in the order crowd. We could do worse than having Dunn batting clean-up ::coughJeffConinecough::, but I would certainly acquire him with a view of putting him second in the batting order.

[rolliefingers]

Actually, Tejada is a much better hitter than Dunn.

When i say that, i am talking BA. Not saying that is how to measure it but if there was 2 outs in the ninth with a runner on third, i certainly think Tejada is more capable of getting the hit over Dunn.

You're absolutely right. But Dunn is also capable of creating enough runs that you don't have to be tied in the bottom of the ninth in the first place.

[bryanman8]

1. Penn & Hoey for Dunn Meh. Maybe just Penn. Don't want to give another potentially great BP arm.

2. Cabrera Yes or Loewen No straight up for Dunn

3. Jay Gibbons & Kris Benson for Dunn Absolutely. Right away. I'd probably throw in another top 10-15 spect too.

^^

Letters to make the post work...

[Sports Guy]

Giving up DCab or Penn for one year of Dunn would be an awful decision.

Benson and Gibbons...Sure.

[elextrano8]

1. Penn & Hoey for Dunn

2. Cabrera or Loewen straight up for Dunn

3. Jay Gibbons & Kris Benson for Dunn

I'd do 3 without blinking an eye, and I'd do 1 if we could get an extension OR if there was sufficient evidence that Dunn would consider an extension once acquired. I wouldn't move D-Cab or Loewen for him, though.

[rolliefingers]

Okay. The guys who like Dunn the most are the guys who tend to believe in the statistical analysis. No problem there. Now show us how much value you place in him for the O's. Which of the following trades would you accept to get Dunn for the one guaranteed year that you'd have him.

1. Penn & Hoey for Dunn

2. Cabrera or Loewen straight up for Dunn

3. Jay Gibbons & Kris Benson for Dunn

Anyone can comment but I particulary want the stat guys (Drungo, Baltimoron, Stallion, Bryan, etc.) to tell how far they'd go to acquire him. Which of these deals is easy for you to do? Which are difficult? Remember, you get Dunn for one year, and you can assume the O's will try to make other deals but you don't know what they are. The assumption is that the O's are trying to compete next year.

Two caveats:

Obviously, we need a lot more than just Dunn in order to compete next year.

Also, if he's essentially a lock to test FA and not sign an extension, that would obviously affect my feelings. I don't know how much credence to give this "Dunn is a lock for HOU or TEX" conventional wisdom.

That said:

1.) No

2.) Maybe and No (change that to Absolutely and No if he would sign an extension)

3.) Absolutely, without hesitation (change that to "OMG are you sh!tting me?!" if he would sign an extension)

BTW, thanks for calling me a "stat guy". I'm flattered! But while I do very much value the power of numbers interpreted honestly, I cannot in good conscience accept that label just yet; I merely use and interpret numbers, I don't do any real analysis.

[rolliefingers]

Come on Stallion! Answer the way the question was posed. No extension in place and no guarantee that he signs one. You take your chances. Now answer it the right way!

Well the extension thing is a pretty big variable! Anyway, my "non-extension" answers are there.

[elextrano8]

Nothing against you but I hate when someone put's the "extension" qualifier in there. Assume that there is not extension in place.

Yeah...the extension qualifier is there to indicate that I wouldn't do the deal without an extension or sufficient evidence that he'd seriously consider one. I think it's pretty clear that without either of those two conditions, I would not do the deal.

[bryanman8]

Come on Stallion! Answer the way the question was posed. No extension in place and no guarantee that he signs one. You take your chances. Now answer it the right way!

I also think it needs more qualification. Even if you don't have one in place and no guarantees, each extension possibility is a case-by-case basis. I kind of answered the question with that assumption.

If I did not at least have slightly legitimate reason to believe that if we won, he would be glad to stay here and, coupled with my other offseason moves, we would be able to win, than I doubt I would do any for them except the third option. I'm not very high on dealing top pitching prospects for a one year rental.

However, if I'm the GM and I speak to Dunn beforehand and he expresses desire to stay here, or that, if we go out and get some guys to help us win, he'll stay...anything like that, and I'm much more likely to deal Penn or Cabrera for him.

I know qualifications can be annoying, but you're not making this trade in OOTP. The GMs will have some idea personally how likely he would be of resigning here even without a guarantee, knowledge that none of us would be privy to.

[rolliefingers]

You call "maybe' on Cabrera an answer? Don't be a pansy!

I'd do it, but I would explore several other names before I got to that point. But, gun to my head, if we make the other moves necessary to win, yeah, I do DCab for Dunn.

[rolliefingers]

You guys are being sissies! You know there's no guarantee that Dunn will sign an extension. Chances are that you won't even have a good idea when you get him. You can't assume he leaves after one year and you can't assume that he stays. Make the decision based on that. Happens all the time in the real world.

And you're being unrealistic. The reality is that if CIN allows us to talk to him and he goes, "Y'know guys, I really want to play in Texas. Nothing personal. The only way I sign with you is if HOU, TEX, both NY teams and BOS turn me down." then no way. But if he says, "I'd consider it, but you really have to make a commitment to winning, or else I'm out after one year." then that changes things considerably. That conversation is not impossible to have.

[rolliefingers]

You're qualifying again. You get to make this move as your first move of the winter. You can assume the team will try to make several other moves to compete. You guys are so wishy washy. Maybe ItalianFilly would be a better handle for you.

Aha! Look who's making qualifications now!

You can't ask a hypothetical unless you set the parameters.

[bryanman8]

And you're being unrealistic. The reality is that if CIN allows us to talk to him and he goes, "Y'know guys, I really want to play in Texas. Nothing personal. The only way I sign with you is if HOU, TEX, both NY teams and BOS turn me down." then no way. But if he says, "I'd consider it, but you really have to make a commitment to winning, or else I'm out after one year." then that changes things considerably. That conversation is not impossible to have.

Exactly. I can't believe RZNJ is using the line "That stuff happens in the real world" when he's trying to simplify it to a black-and-white, person-free, idea-free, discussion-free, knowledge-free land of "yes or no" like you're making a trade in a fantasy baseball league.

[Sports Guy]

Put it this way...Dunn wants to play in Texas, where he is from.

Assume no chance he signs an extension.