TT: Gausman's time will come, but it's not now

[Frobby]

I'm still mystified why Gausman induces so few swings and misses -- six yesterday in 96 pitches. Overall, he's getting a swinging strike only 5.6% of the time. You'd think that a guy with a 97 mph fastball and an 82 mph changeup would miss a lot more bats than that.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm still mystified why Gausman induces so few swings and misses -- six yesterday in 96 pitches. Overall, he's getting a swinging strike only 5.6% of the time. You'd think that a guy with a 97 mph fastball and an 82 mph changeup would miss a lot more bats than that.

I was thinking on this the other day. He might be lacking deception in his delivery allowing batters to get a good look at the ball.

[NickM21]

The other thing I've noticed is it seems like the changeup hasn't been close enough to the plate for batters to swing at it, especially to lefties, and especially on 2 strikes. It is far enough off the plate away that hitters are holding up.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I was pretty surprised to see that Brooks Baseball is classifying about 90% of his fastballs as 4 seamers so far. Doesn't seem like there was a difference between yesterday and the first two starts in that respect. I thought he might have been throwing more 2 seamers yesterday but it appears he may have been just been throttling back on his 4 seamer and locating it lower in the zone. Maybe that helps explain his low missed swing %. I do believe Brooks Baseball goes through and parses the automated pitch f/x classifications at some point, just not sure when.

If he is throwing more 2 seamers it would appear that pitch f/x is having some problems classifying them as such, particularly his fastballs do not seem to be generating much in the way of sink. If he's throwing more of a tailing 2 seam fastball, I'm not seeing that either. Even considering his better performance yesterday, that strikes me as problematic. If some of the smart Gausman and/or pitch f/x analysts could provide an explanation, I'd certainly appreciate hearing it.

http://brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=592332

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I'm still mystified why Gausman induces so few swings and misses -- six yesterday in 96 pitches. Overall, he's getting a swinging strike only 5.6% of the time. You'd think that a guy with a 97 mph fastball and an 82 mph changeup would miss a lot more bats than that.

The question I would have is, what was it in the minors for him?

[accinfo]

I'm still mystified why Gausman induces so few swings and misses -- six yesterday in 96 pitches. Overall, he's getting a swinging strike only 5.6% of the time. You'd think that a guy with a 97 mph fastball and an 82 mph changeup would miss a lot more bats than that.

Is it because he throws so few balls? Not trying to be too simplistic here but is he scouted such that they swing at more of his pitches then the average guy? Do they keep the stat of opposing players swinging at a pitchers first pitch at a higher rate then average?

[Tony-OH]

This was my first time getting to watch Gausman throw. I can tell you Tony is spot on in his analysis. The fastball constantly misses in the middle of the plate. His change is a plus pitch, slider needs a lot of work. What gets him out of his mistakes is the fact his fastball gets on people quicker than normal.

Today he made good pitches at times, but you could see where Snyder was setting up he was missing the spot quite a bit. At one point Snyder came out to talk to him about it.if Gausman can get control of that fastball and just improve that slider some. He can be a legit number 1 or 2 starter. Great thing about Gausman is he's so young and has a ton of upside.

Gausman was able to stay out of the middle of the plate more often on Sunday and kept the ball down better. To me, he did a much better job of keeping the ball on the corners of the zone for the most part. Obviously he threw a nice game, but it's still one start and I still see more work that needs to be done on his command. On top of it, I have some concerns about batters picking him up. I know some will take the time to say that this one start proves he was ready, but as I said all along, the key will be consistently doing this. That was the first game I've seen him pitch where he effectively stayed out of the middle of the plate. Hopefully, he'll continue to do so. I'll need to see him consistently do this until I'm ready to proclaim him ready.

Regardless, it was good to see him have a nice start against a tough lineup. It goes to show that he does have the raw stuff to compete at this level and why I said all along that I like his upside and long term prospects. Saying that, its still going to be tough to compete consistently without a better and more consistent breaking ball or something he can get swings and misses on in the strike zone. Hopefully he will continue to keep the ball out of the middle of the plate and have more starts like the one on Sunday.

[Tony-OH]

I'm still mystified why Gausman induces so few swings and misses -- six yesterday in 96 pitches. Overall, he's getting a swinging strike only 5.6% of the time. You'd think that a guy with a 97 mph fastball and an 82 mph changeup would miss a lot more bats than that.

It is a bit concerning honestly. Here's his WHIFF percentages by zone:

He's only recorded three swings and misses in the strike zone out of 70 swings on pitches in the strike zone (4.2% WHIFF rate).

He's much better outside of the zone getting 13 swings and misses out of 52 swings (25%).

If these numbers look low, look at Wei-Yin Chen's WHIF numbers.

Look at the difference in swing percentage in the zone. It's huge and honestly, I can't find a successful major league pitcher with such low WHIF percentages as Gausman so far.

I thought it was mainly because he was in the middle of the plate, but he doesn't garner many swings and misses anywhere in the strike zone.

Here's what batters are hitting against him in the zone:

Batters are hitting .400 (16-40) off him on pitches in the zone that they put into play. Scarily, batters are hitting .562 (9-17) on pitches in the middle of the zone and .400 (2-5) up in the zone whether inside, outside or down the middle. When he keeps the ball low in the strike zone batters are hitting just .263 (5-19).

He was much better keeping the ball down Sunday which contributed to his success, but right now, batters are picking him up way to well and he'll need to see those WHIF rates climb significantly.

Out of all major league starters this year who have thrown at least 100 pitches this year, Gausman has the 6th worse WHIFF per swing rate (13.11%). That needs to improve because out of the five pitchers who were below him, only Seatlle's Blake Beavan (0.88) has a worse GB/FB rate than Gausman's (1.28) so it's not like he's a ground ball machine that pitches to contact on purpose.

[Flosman]

It is a bit concerning honestly. Here's his WHIFF percentages by zone:

He's only recorded three swings and misses in the strike zone out of 70 swings on pitches in the strike zone (4.2% WHIFF rate).

He's much better outside of the zone getting 13 swings and misses out of 52 swings (25%).

If these numbers look low, look at Wei-Yin Chen's WHIF numbers.

Look at the difference in swing percentage in the zone. It's huge and honestly, I can't find a successful major league pitcher with such low WHIF percentages as Gausman so far.

I thought it was mainly because he was in the middle of the plate, but he doesn't garner many swings and misses anywhere in the strike zone.

Here's what batters are hitting against him in the zone:

Batters are hitting .400 (16-40) off him on pitches in the zone that they put into play. Scarily, batters are hitting .562 (9-17) on pitches in the middle of the zone and .400 (2-5) up in the zone whether inside, outside or down the middle. When he keeps the ball low in the strike zone batters are hitting just .263 (5-19).

He was much better keeping the ball down Sunday which contributed to his success, but right now, batters are picking him up way to well and he'll need to see those WHIF rates climb significantly.

Out of all major league starters this year who have thrown at least 100 pitches this year, Gausman has the 6th worse WHIFF per swing rate (13.11%). That needs to improve because out of the five pitchers who were below him, only Seatlle's Blake Beavan (0.88) has a worse GB/FB rate than Gausman's (1.28) so it's not like he's a ground ball machine that pitches to contact on purpose.

Tony I am looking at the info you provided and am seeing something different. With me not looking at a bunch of other pitchers data I would ask is the problem the batters picking up his stuff or is it simply just location. About half of his pitches where middle/middle or low/middle, pitchers can't live there and I would think most pitchers don't have great numbers there. This i would think is made worse because hitters know that is where he is going to be a large part of the time. I think you have provided evidence that if he would get out of the middle of the plate his numbers would be dramatically different.

[Tony-OH]

Tony I am looking at the info you provided and am seeing something different. With me not looking at a bunch of other pitchers data I would ask is the problem the batters picking up his stuff or is it simply just location. About half of his pitches where middle/middle or low/middle, pitchers can't live there and I would think most pitchers don't have great numbers there. This i would think is made worse because hitters know that is where he is going to be a large part of the time. I think you have provided evidence that if he would get out of the middle of the plate his numbers would be dramatically different.

Honestly, I think it's both. Obviously he gets hit hard in the middle of the plate as do most pitchers, but the lack of WHIFFS anywhere in the strike zone is pretty apparent to me. Look at him in comparison to Wei-Yin Chen.

[Frobby]

Honestly, I think it's both. Obviously he gets hit hard in the middle of the plate as do most pitchers, but the lack of WHIFFS anywhere in the strike zone is pretty apparent to me. Look at him in comparison to Wei-Yin Chen.

It's really bizarre to me. A guy throwing 97 mph and then dropping in 82 mph changeups should be getting a ton of whiffs. There must be no deception at all in his delivery, and not much movement on his fastball (I've never learned how to read the charts and stats that relate to movement on particular pitches).

[Frobby]

Again, I think this has a lot to do with deception. Steve Johnson throws plenty of 90 MPH fastballs with not a ton of movement and gets more swings and misses due to his deception.

I think the O's should tweak his windup over the offseason to add some deception.

Then again, why aren't we mystified about Tommy not getting a ton of whiffs off his 100MPH fastball?

Hunter is getting 9% whiffs, compared to Gausman's 5.6%.

[Can_of_corn]

Again, I think this has a lot to do with deception. Steve Johnson throws plenty of 90 MPH fastballs with not a ton of movement and gets more swings and misses due to his deception.

I think the O's should tweak his windup over the offseason to add some deception.

Then again, why aren't we mystified about Tommy not getting a ton of whiffs off his 100MPH fastball?

Or JJ or Strop.

[webbrick2010]

I really think the problem is that 15 mph difference between FB and Change is too much. I find it hard to believe that ML hitters would be decieved by such a wide velocity difference. Gausman needs a hard slider or cutter in the 88-90 mph range.

[LookitsPuck]

It's really bizarre to me. A guy throwing 97 mph and then dropping in 82 mph changeups should be getting a ton of whiffs. There must be no deception at all in his delivery, and not much movement on his fastball (I've never learned how to read the charts and stats that relate to movement on particular pitches).

Probably tipping his pitches. Not much deception. His success on Sunday was largely related to him keeping the ball low and mixing up some pitches. Let's compare Chen and Gausman for a second.

Gausman has thrown 252 pitches to date. 179 of them were fastballs (4 seamer). 71%.

Chen has thrown 718 pitches this year. 445 were fastballs (4 seamer). 62%.

He's pretty much throwing straight fastballs. Chen has a slider, change-up, curveballs, and a 2 seamer to boot. 5 total pitches.

Gausman has thrown pretty much all 4 seam fastballs, a forkball (which is his change-up, I believe), and a slider. 3 total pitches. He's only thrown a 2 seamer twice. He's apparently been working on his slider.

So, as a hitter most are going to be able to read it not only if he's tipping his pitches, but just by guessing. Major league hitters can hit fastballs regardless of speed. Especially if they know when it's coming.