Marlins Trying to Trade Nolasco ASAP

[stomperspc]

O's trade pieces according to value for the Marlins who want cheap, close to ML ready/ML ready talent:

Britton

Arrieta

Schoop

Urrutia

Wright

Rodrigez

Hader

Hoes

Avery

Remember no team is giving up top prospects for a two month rental. If we are willing to bite the bullet we have enough to get Nolasco. He does one thing no Orioles pitcher currently does; he averages 19 outs a game.

Gonzalez does. 81 2/3's innings pitch X 3 outs per innings = 245 outs/13 starts = 18.847 outs per game. Nolasco averages 18.812. Not to nitpick, just throwing that out there.

The top four Orioles starters collectively average 17.809 outs per start. A pitcher like Nolasco would certainly help in that regard but I am not sure if it is that big of a difference maker.

[schmed77]

Probably get killed for this but here goes... What does Nolasco really do for the Orioles??? He is not a TOR or a #2 in my opinion... Is he better than Hammel? Probably. Is he better than Chen? not really. Is he better than Tillman? not really. Is he better than Gonzo? Nope. Gonzo in my opinion is the O's ace followed closely by Tillman.

My conclusion, trade for Nolo BUT do not give up an A or B prospect. If I was DD I stand pat and see what happens closer to the deadline...

Hammel

Chen

Tillman

Gonzo

Britton/Arrieta/Gausman/Johnson

Is not terrible! I think I am crotchety and don't like acquiring fringe talent/Veterans for prospects...

Go O's!!!

[centralpaosfan]

At this rate the O's will officially enter the "are they buyers or sellers" realm and will wait around long enough for all the quality arms to be taken before they decide.

[El Gordo]

The chance to give you a QS, not necessary get a QS each time out.

That's not what you said, but I get the idea. Right now we can expect that from Tillman, Gonzo, and Chen.

[Ornithological]

The Marlins are shopping him aggressively because they have to get rid of him for

whatever they can get, including salary relief. The Marlins are one of the cheapest

teams in baseball, and have to salvage whatever value they can before they lose

him to free agency.

I'd offer two of: Arrieta, Hoes, Avery, Wright or Strop.

I don't expect the Marlins to get much for him. They will not get any A rated

prospect.

[AlbionHero]

Probably get killed for this but here goes... What does Nolasco really do for the Orioles??? He is not a TOR or a #2 in my opinion... Is he better than Hammel? Probably. Is he better than Chen? not really. Is he better than Tillman? not really. Is he better than Gonzo? Nope. Gonzo in my opinion is the O's ace followed closely by Tillman.

What he does is fixes our #5 starter black hole problem. If we have Nolasco out there, we don't have to worry about constantly bringing up new guys every week to do spot starts. He makes the rotation as a whole better just because we don't have to deal with that issue anymore.

[xKHx]

Looks like its between the Giants and Dodgers I doubt we have much a chance in this. We just don't have the farm system to let people go.

[schmed77]

Another negative Nolo stat:

Check out his three year splits v. the AL East... good grief its pretty bad... I think it would be a mistake to add him unless you don't have to give A or B prospects...

I say NO to NOLO!

[El Gordo]

Probably get killed for this but here goes... What does Nolasco really do for the Orioles??? He is not a TOR or a #2 in my opinion... Is he better than Hammel? Probably. Is he better than Chen? not really. Is he better than Tillman? not really. Is he better than Gonzo? Nope. Gonzo in my opinion is the O's ace followed closely by Tillman.

My conclusion, trade for Nolo BUT do not give up an A or B prospect. If I was DD I stand pat and see what happens closer to the deadline...

Hammel

Chen

Tillman

Gonzo

Britton/Arrieta/Gausman/Johnson

Is not terrible! I think I am crotchety and don't like acquiring fringe talent/Veterans for prospects...

Go O's!!!

These guys and the other usual suspects covering for Chen in his absence, and covering the #5 spot. have combined to average 14.1 outs per GS. That alone is enough to kill your bullpen, especially when the rest of the rotation is doing little better than 17.

[Three Run Homer]

Probably get killed for this but here goes... What does Nolasco really do for the Orioles??? He is not a TOR or a #2 in my opinion... Is he better than Hammel? Probably. Is he better than Chen? not really. Is he better than Tillman? not really. Is he better than Gonzo? Nope. Gonzo in my opinion is the O's ace followed closely by Tillman.

My conclusion, trade for Nolo BUT do not give up an A or B prospect. If I was DD I stand pat and see what happens closer to the deadline...

Hammel

Chen

Tillman

Gonzo

Britton/Arrieta/Gausman/Johnson

Is not terrible! I think I am crotchety and don't like acquiring fringe talent/Veterans for prospects...

Go O's!!!

You've just given us the argument for why we should trade for Nolasco. Right now we have three good starters (once Chen returns from health), one ok starter (Hammel) and a black hole in the #5 slot. That doesn't mean we have to trade for Nolasco, but we need to trade for someone who will stabilize the rotation if we want to have any hope of remaining in the race.

I agree that we shouldn't trade an A or B prospect for him, because he's only a rental, but we have major league ready cost controlled players who the Marlins would like who I'd be willing to give up, starting with Reimold and Hoes.

[El Gordo]

Besides Gausman what A prospects do we have? How many B's?

[DrungoHazewood]

You have an espresso craving? Long night of Nolasco speculation?

[InsideCoroner]

You have an espresso craving? Long night of Nolasco speculation?

That's a ground coffee maker, it sort of functions like a stove-top percolator. I have almost the exact same thing (a little different, but a Bialetti). It's great. Perfect for west coast games.

[e16bball]

Probably get killed for this but here goes... What does Nolasco really do for the Orioles??? He is not a TOR or a #2 in my opinion... Is he better than Hammel? Probably. Is he better than Chen? not really. Is he better than Tillman? not really. Is he better than Gonzo? Nope. Gonzo in my opinion is the O's ace followed closely by Tillman.

My conclusion, trade for Nolo BUT do not give up an A or B prospect. If I was DD I stand pat and see what happens closer to the deadline...

Hammel

Chen

Tillman

Gonzo

Britton/Arrieta/Gausman/Johnson

Is not terrible! I think I am crotchety and don't like acquiring fringe talent/Veterans for prospects...

Go O's!!!

No sense in anyone killing you for this post. Nolasco is being tremendously overrated in this thread, which I suspect stems largely from a desire to bring in the devil we DON'T know, because we're so tired of the ones we do know.

I think it probably also stems from overreliance on his career peripherals. Nolasco is sort of a rich man's version of Jake Arrieta. Like our own star-crossed and TTTP-scarred conundrum, Nolasco has a miserable track record of performance with runners on base. Among pitchers with 1000 IPs since 2000, Nolasco's 68.7% strand rate is the 10th worst --- and it bears noting that the rest of those pitchers had poor strand rates because they were simply terrible pitchers; Nolasco isn't always terrible, but he falls apart when runners reach base against him.

Bases Empty: 8.04 K/9, 1.55 BB/9, 1.24 HR/9, 3.71 FIP, 3.55 xFIP

Men on Base: 6.36 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9, 3.94 FIP, 4.07 xFIP

Men in Scoring: 6.90 K/9, 3.73 BB/9, 0.76 HR/9, 4.00 FIP, 4.30 xFIP

This decline in performance once runners reach base is the primary reason why his peripherals (3.81 FIP, 3.79 xFIP) are a mirage --- because he performs worse when opposing teams have scoring situations, he will inevitably give up more runs than a pitcher who performs consistently in all situations. For this reason, his career 4.43 ERA (94 ERA+) is much more telling than his metrics, much the same way that Arrieta's career 5.46 ERA is much more telling than his metrics (4.72 FIP, 4.45 xFIP).

They may make a move for Nolasco. But given the facts that he's had extremely mediocre results in his career, he carries a substantial salary, and we'd be asking him to move into the AL East and a hugely more difficult park to pitch in, I would think they shouldn't go beyond a C prospect for him. The potential upgrade simply isn't worth more.

[DrungoHazewood]

That's a ground coffee maker, it sort of functions like a stove-top percolator. I have almost the exact same thing (a little different, but a Bialetti). It's great. Perfect for west coast games.

It's a stovetop espresso maker. Very popular in Italy. I used to think it was like a percolator until I was in Italy and drank 3-4 full mugs of espresso for a couple mornings. Pretty sure that's close to a legal way around the greenie ban.