Per Gammons: "Orioles culture... back to reality."

[Can_of_corn]

JJ had a few "tightrope games," but so do most closers. In any event, when I analyze what to expect JJ to do in 2014, I don't just look at 2013, I look at his entire career for the Orioles. I wouldn't expect him to blow 9 saves (or 15% of his opportunities) in 2014, even knowing he wasn't that great in his most recent season.

I look at the prior closers to have 50 save seasons and think JJ is a serious candidate to either be injured or regress.

[MrOrange82]

JJ had a few "tightrope games," but so do most closers. In any event, when I analyze what to expect JJ to do in 2014, I don't just look at 2013, I look at his entire career for the Orioles. I wouldn't expect him to blow 9 saves (or 15% of his opportunities) in 2014, even knowing he wasn't that great in his most recent season.

OK...he's only had two seasons as a full time closer, the most recent of which was pretty "meh." His production has also been up and down over the course of his career as a reliever for the O's. By my non-scientific count, his seasons were mediocre (2008), bad (2009), mediocre/injured (2010), good (2011), lights-out (2012), and mediocre (2013).

IMO, his entire career doesn't tell me that his struggles in 2013 were somehow aberrant. At best, I think his career production is inconclusive. Accordingly, I feel comfortable looking at his most recent season and saying "no big loss."

Regarding "a few tightrope games," JJ had at least 22 games in 2013 in which he allowed two or more base runners. So, in just under a third of his games, he was putting opposing runners in scoring position. I think that counts as more than a few, and I didn't drill down far enough to check how many games he allowed, for example, a leadoff double in a one-run game, etc. JJ was simply shaky out there for much of 2013.

[MrOrange82]

Well, he gave up 9 doubles in 74 appearances, so it couldn't have happened often.

That's fine...I also didn't drill down on every other possible scenario. Leadoff walks that advanced to second on a fielder's choice. Singles followed by steals. There are other ways to find yourself in trouble during an inning.

And none of that changes the number of times he found himself with multiple runners on base, regardless of the number of doubles, in a vacuum, that he gave up last season.

Do you think he wasn't shaky because he didn't give up many doubles?

[El Gordo]

OK...he's only had two seasons as a full time closer, the most recent of which was pretty "meh." His production has also been up and down over the course of his career as a reliever for the O's. By my non-scientific count, his seasons were mediocre (2008), bad (2009), mediocre/injured (2010), good (2011), lights-out (2012), and mediocre (2013).

IMO, his entire career doesn't tell me that his struggles in 2013 were somehow aberrant. At best, I think his career production is inconclusive. Accordingly, I feel comfortable looking at his most recent season and saying "no big loss."

Regarding "a few tightrope games," JJ had at least 22 games in 2013 in which he allowed two or more base runners. So, in just under a third of his games, he was putting opposing runners in scoring position. I think that counts as more than a few, and I didn't drill down far enough to check how many games he allowed, for example, a leadoff double in a one-run game, etc. JJ was simply shaky out there for much of 2013.

So in over 2/3 of his appearances he didn't put runners in scoring position and you say that he was shaky much of the time?

[Frobby]

That's fine...I also didn't drill down on every other possible scenario. Leadoff walks that advanced to second on a fielder's choice. Singles followed by steals. There are other ways to find yourself in trouble during an inning.

And none of that changes the number of times he found himself with multiple runners on base, regardless of the number of doubles, in a vacuum, that he gave up last season.

Do you think he wasn't shaky because he didn't give up many doubles?

I think we can all agree that JJ allowed more baserunners than we would have liked last year. His WHIP (1.28) was much higher than the two previous seasons (1.11 and 1.02 in 2011-12). At the same time, I felt that JJ was vicitmized by more than the usual share of seeing eye singles, as his .330 BABIP suggests. I liked the fact that he allows very few extra base hits. For his career, opposing hitters have an ISO of only .090, and last year it was .091. So basically, a lot of singles got through the infield.

[MrOrange82]

So in over 2/3 of his appearances he didn't put runners in scoring position and you say that he was shaky much of the time?

In just under a third of his games he put two or more runners on base. I don't know how many appearance he had in which one or more runners were in scoring position.

So yeah, I'd say that qualifies as shaky. Thanks for reading the entire post.

[MrOrange82]

I think we can all agree that JJ allowed more baserunners than we would have liked last year. His WHIP (1.28) was much higher than the two previous seasons (1.11 and 1.02 in 2011-12). At the same time, I felt that JJ was vicitmized by more than the usual share of seeing eye singles, as his .330 BABIP suggests. I liked the fact that he allows very few extra base hits. For his career, opposing hitters have an ISO of only .090, and last year it was .091. So basically, a lot of singles got through the infield.

I don't think they were all seeing eye singles or dying quails. JJ's LD% went up last year, while his GB% dropped, his FB% stayed about the same, and his IFFB% dropped. He gave up a lot of singles, perhaps more than he should have factoring in some bad luck. But he was also hit fairly hard, even if those hits didn't go for extra bases all that often.

[weams]

I don't think Bruno was talking just about the Cuban guys. The O's don't pay for the top-tier Dominican talent, either. I'm not necessarily advocating the strategy of going after the highest-priced Dominican talent, but it's certainly true that the Orioles have stayed away from that market for years. Of course, the game has changed now. Before there was no limit on international spending, and now every team has a set maximum.

Andy MacPhail himself was terribly upset with what he discovered in the Dominican Republic during his investigation for MLB. He equated it to child slavery. It was very tough to convince him to spend there.

[scOtt]

Pot, meet kettle.

Kettle, meet pot.

Happy Holidays from the Official Peter Angelos Does Nothing Wrong Fan Crew a.k.a. PASS (Peter Angelos Stockholm Syndrome).

MSK

Better than you and the screaming hater crowd a.k.a. PISS (Peter is Satan's son)

[MemorialStadKid]

Better than you and the screaming hater crowd a.k.a. PISS (Peter is Satan's son)

Pointing out the most likely reality of the situation is not being from the "screaming hater crowd."

Feel free to continue giving the man a PASS. Making excuses for reclusive billionaire owners is a full-time job apparently.

MSK

[Frobby]

I don't think they were all seeing eye singles or dying quails. JJ's LD% went up last year, while his GB% dropped, his FB% stayed about the same, and his IFFB% dropped. He gave up a lot of singles, perhaps more than he should have factoring in some bad luck. But he was also hit fairly hard, even if those hits didn't go for extra bases all that often.

Yeah, I don't really disagree that not all of the increase in JJ's BABIP was due to bad luck. He had a few spells this season where his command wasn't as sharp as usual and was getting behind in counts and/or leaving the ball up in the zone, and that leads to harder contact, which leads to higher BABIP. I feel it was a combination of "true" downgrade of performance and some bad luck at times.

I just spent a little time studying Jim Johnson's baseballsavant.com pages for 2012 and 2013, and what I found there was that JJ was much less effective on pitches up in the zone (or out of it) in 2013 compared to 2012.

2012: 387 pitches in the upper 1/3 of the strike zone or higher, 12 singles, 1 double, 3 homers.

2013: 385 pitches in the upper 1/3 of the strike zone or higher, 20 singles, 4 doubles, 4 homers.

Also interesting that JJ threw almost the same number of pitches in the upper third or higher (385/387), and in the middle part of the zone (161/158), but threw 89 more pitches in the lower part of the zone or lower (564/475). He was almost equally effective both years in those two regions, but hitters hit his high stuff better this year.

[Yardball85]

So Jim Johnson is league average and not an All-Star.. okay we agree on that. His closing duties didn't rise dramatically from 2012 to 2013. Just 3 games more. But his blown saves increased by 300%.

Those 5 make the O's 90 and 72. 1 game back going into the last week. Now not saying those 5 put us in. But those 6 blown saves over 2012 does.

2 games below .500 over 36 games stretch that included AL east teams. A blooper hit by Boston and a 16 or 17 inning game against Tampa. I don't mind that as much. That's dumb luck, but going into the 9th with the lead and losing it 6 times more then you did the year before. That BUGS me.

You inexplicably criticize JJ as if HE was the main reason we did not make the playoffs with the poor logic that six less blown saves means we gain FIVE games in the standings. First off, unless all of these were against TB or CLE, we would only gain 3 games in the standing (6 half games).

Additionally, you conveniently choose to criticize a player traded DD and PA, yet you refuse to criticize poor performers that DD has left on the roster who were responsible for the team not making the playoffs.

For instance, are you aware that Ryan Flaherty OPS'ed .683 last season?

Are you aware that Tommy Hunter allowed a home run in a 5-4 loss the Rays the day Manny got hurt? That was a loss - one less loss... see my point? He also blew a game against the White Sox when he allowed a walk off HR to Dunn.

My point is, several people, other than Johnson, contributed to the Orioles' failure to reach the playoffs in 2013.

Me, personally? If the $10M is not actually reallocated into making the team better, I think we are worse off without JJ than we are with him. I think a good portion of the board would agree.

[scOtt]

Pointing out the most likely reality of the situation is not being from the "screaming hater crowd."

Feel free to continue giving the man a PASS. Making excuses for reclusive billionaire owners is a full-time job apparently.

MSK

Operative word. And I do believe it to be true. But it is no way the absolute truth you try to make it out to be. It's just circumstantial.

[MrOrange82]

You seem to get so angry when debating JJ. Easy my friend. Of course they weren't all or even mostly lucky. We're simply saying that some of the difference in performance last year is likely attributable to luck.

Yeah, JJ is a sore spot with me. I tend to wonder how many more, if any, games the Orioles could have won last year were it not for JJ, it just bugs me that Buck insisted on throwing him out there, Hell or high water. It also got to me how often he made wins semi-nerve wracking. And now that the 2013 dust has settled and his numbers, based on a visual inspection, don't exactly look atrocious, it bugs me further when his 2013 is defended, despite the number of games he "saved" that, at the time, felt more like "near misses," not to mention the games he actually did lose.

Apologies for being overzealous.

Yeah, I don't really disagree that not all of the increase in JJ's BABIP was due to bad luck. He had a few spells this season where his command wasn't as sharp as usual and was getting behind in counts and/or leaving the ball up in the zone, and that leads to harder contact, which leads to higher BABIP. I feel it was a combination of "true" downgrade of performance and some bad luck at times.

I just spent a little time studying Jim Johnson's baseballsavant.com pages for 2012 and 2013, and what I found there was that JJ was much less effective on pitches up in the zone (or out of it) in 2013 compared to 2012.

2012: 387 pitches in the upper 1/3 of the strike zone or higher, 12 singles, 1 double, 3 homers.

2013: 385 pitches in the upper 1/3 of the strike zone or higher, 20 singles, 4 doubles, 4 homers.

Also interesting that JJ threw almost the same number of pitches in the upper third or higher (385/387), and in the middle part of the zone (161/158), but threw 89 more pitches in the lower part of the zone or lower (564/475). He was almost equally effective both years in those two regions, but hitters hit his high stuff better this year.

That is interesting. Given how often JJ found himself behind in the count last season, it seems like more hitters might have been sitting on "get me over" fastballs in the upper part of the strike zone. Total speculation on my part, but regardless...interesting.

[71Dadandme]

Point taken, he blew the final 2. Allowing the tieing run is as good as a blown save..

Your thinking is broken and distorted. Is a tying run on base the same thing as a blown save (meaning the run crossed the plate)? No. If it was, they would change th standard of how blown saves are attributed.

Tired of emotion-driven subjective thinking.