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Per Gammons: "Orioles culture... back to reality."

MemorialStadKid

By MemorialStadKid
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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Yeah, I don't really disagree that not all of the increase in JJ's BABIP was due to bad luck. He had a few spells this season where his command wasn't as sharp as usual and was getting behind in counts and/or leaving the ball up in the zone, and that leads to harder contact, which leads to higher BABIP. I feel it was a combination of "true" downgrade of performance and some bad luck at times.

I just spent a little time studying Jim Johnson's baseballsavant.com pages for 2012 and 2013, and what I found there was that JJ was much less effective on pitches up in the zone (or out of it) in 2013 compared to 2012.

2012: 387 pitches in the upper 1/3 of the strike zone or higher, 12 singles, 1 double, 3 homers.

2013: 385 pitches in the upper 1/3 of the strike zone or higher, 20 singles, 4 doubles, 4 homers.

Also interesting that JJ threw almost the same number of pitches in the upper third or higher (385/387), and in the middle part of the zone (161/158), but threw 89 more pitches in the lower part of the zone or lower (564/475). He was almost equally effective both years in those two regions, but hitters hit his high stuff better this year.

His arm slot was different.

He lost his sink.

His velocity was down.

I think he is a bit sore.

Don't you?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Yeah, JJ is a sore spot with me. I tend to wonder how many more, if any, games the Orioles could have won last year were it not for JJ, it just bugs me that Buck insisted on throwing him out there, Hell or high water. It also got to me how often he made wins semi-nerve wracking. And now that the 2013 dust has settled and his numbers, based on a visual inspection, don't exactly look atrocious, it bugs me further when his 2013 is defended, despite the number of games he "saved" that, at the time, felt more like "near misses," not to mention the games he actually did lose.

Apologies for being overzealous.

That is interesting. Given how often JJ found himself behind in the count last season, it seems like more hitters might have been sitting on "get me over" fastballs in the upper part of the strike zone. Total speculation on my part, but regardless...interesting.

At bats resolved with the batter ahead in the count, even count, batter behind in the count:

2012: 106, 99, 64

2013: 103, 99, 89

As you can see, JJ actually resolved a higher percentage of at bats while the batter was behind in the count in 2013 than in 2012. But he was less successful than in 2012 both when the batter was ahead (.683 OPSA in 2012, .917 in 2013) and when the batter was behind (.219 OPSA in 2012, .614 in 2013). It's especially interesting since JJ raised his strikeout rate considerably in 2013.

Some things just defy an easy explanation, so I'll just say that in my opinion, JJ had more outings in 2013 where the pitches didn't go quite where he intended.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I expect him to have significant struggles within the next two seasons.

So. Since he is playing for his BIG contract, do you think he will try to throw a bit harder, even though it hurts? Do you think he will look to have the spring training of his career? Do you expect his issues to manifest themselves before June?

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NJ BIRD FAN Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

NJ BIRD FAN

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You inexplicably criticize JJ as if HE was the main reason we did not make the playoffs with the poor logic that six less blown saves means we gain FIVE games in the standings. First off, unless all of these were against TB or CLE, we would only gain 3 games in the standing (6 half games).

Additionally, you conveniently choose to criticize a player traded DD and PA, yet you refuse to criticize poor performers that DD has left on the roster who were responsible for the team not making the playoffs.

For instance, are you aware that Ryan Flaherty OPS'ed .683 last season?

Are you aware that Tommy Hunter allowed a home run in a 5-4 loss the Rays the day Manny got hurt? That was a loss - one less loss... see my point? He also blew a game against the White Sox when he allowed a walk off HR to Dunn.

My point is, several people, other than Johnson, contributed to the Orioles' failure to reach the playoffs in 2013.

Me, personally? If the $10M is not actually reallocated into making the team better, I think we are worse off without JJ than we are with him. I think a good portion of the board would agree.

I would not.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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So. Since he is playing for his BIG contract, do you think he will try to throw a bit harder, even though it hurts? Do you think he will look to have the spring training of his career? Do you expect his issues to manifest themselves before June?

I expect his heavy workload to catch up to him.

I don't think it will be self induced pressure that does it.

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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

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In 2012 the MASN deal with the O's and Nats reset and there is legal battle ongoing about what is fair market value for the Nats tv money and the O's tv money. This problem was well known since 2007. Both sides ignored in until last year. It's still not resolved. So no money is gonna be spent and I don't think any money lined the pocket of the owners for the last 4 years due to this reset.
No money spent? They still have the $29M in rights fees under the original agreement to spend. All the legal battle will determine is how much those fees will increase.
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