Look out for Kevin Gausman

[Redskins Rick]

If he commands three pitches it will not matter how many starts he has at AAA.

Commanding pitches and facing major league hitters and getting them out is important task to master.

As Frobby pointed out, he hasn't shown that at either AAA or Major league level.

So let's not rush him, and let him develop at his pace.

[wildcard]

The safe move is for the O's to send him to AAA and let him prove that he can command three pitches. I don't consider a 4.04 ERA at Norfolk, or the 4.40 ERA he had in relief after returning to Baltimore on August 31, to establish a strong case to start the year in the Orioles' rotation. Yeah he flashed a good slider at times as a reliever, but that's not the same thing as throwing it well over 6-7 innings on a regular basis. That said, I think Gausman will get plenty of chances this spring to show how he is progressing, so I can't rule out the possibility that he wins a spot. I just don't think it's that likely.

I don't think what has happened in the past has much bearing of the situation. Wallace and Buck will determine how good Gausman's command of his three pitches is by watching him in games this spring. That is the determining factor. What is Wallace and Buck's judgement of how good Gausman's command is by the time they break camp.

[wildcard]

Commanding pitches and facing major league hitters and getting them out is important task to master.

As Frobby pointed out, he hasn't shown that at either AAA or Major league level.

So let's not rush him, and let him develop at his pace.

Its not rushing him if he can consistently command three pitches in Wallace and Buck's judgement.

[Frobby]

I don't think what has happened in the past has much bearing of the situation. Wallace and Buck will determine how good Gausman's command of his three pitches is by watching him in games this spring. That is the determining factor. What is Wallace and Buck's judgement is of how good Gausman's command is by the time they break camp.

I respectfully disagree. Gausman's performance in games will certainly be a factor, but it is far from the only factor. The fact that Gausman is inexperienced is a factor. The fact that Gausman has options is a factor. The fact that Norris is earning $5.3 mm, has a track record, and cost us Hoes, Hader and a competitive balance pick is a factor. Gausman would have to convince Buck that he is highly likely to be an above average major league starter this season in order to beat out Norris for the Opening Day rotation, in my opinion. Anything less than that and Buck will send him to AAA to start the season.

[wildcard]

I respectfully disagree. Gausman's performance in games will certainly be a factor, but it is far from the only factor. The fact that Gausman is inexperienced is a factor. The fact that Gausman has options is a factor. The fact that Norris is earning $5.3 mm, has a track record, and cost us Hoes, Hader and a competitive balance pick is a factor. Gausman would have to convince Buck that he is highly likely to be an above average major league starter this season in order to beat out Norris for the Opening Day rotation, in my opinion. Anything less than that and Buck will send him to AAA to start the season.

Totally agree with the bolded part. That is what I am saying. Wallace and Buck will determine if Gausman can command three pitches.

The rest of your post does not matter if Gausman can command three pitches. Because if he can the quality of his pitches are better the Norris. Who do the O's want in their rotation. The guy with the stuff and command to win or the veteran with less stuff who struggled for them last year. Gausman's superior stuff will win if he can command it.

The only way Gausman is sent down is if Wallace and Buck determine he can command his stuff or his slide is not ready. It will not be because of what another pitcher did.

[Redskins Rick]

Its not rushing him if he can consistently command three pitches in Wallace and Buck's judgement.

We shall see on March 31st, who is right.

[Frobby]

Totally agree with the bolded part. That is what I am saying. Wallace and Buck will determine if Gausman can command three pitches.

The rest of your post does not matter if Gausman can command three pitches. Because if he can the quality of his pitches are better the Norris. Who do the O's want in their rotation. The guy with the stuff and command to win or the veteran with less stuff who struggled for them last year. Gausman's superior stuff will win if he can command it.

I am just saying that, because of the other factors, Gausman would have to beat out Norris by a very clear margin. Let's remember, spring training games aren't always the best venue to prove anything, because there are a lot of minor league players, and rusty major leaguers just "trying to get their work in," in these games. We all know Gausman throws harder than Norris and has a more devastating change-up. Whether Buck and his staff can make a firm determination about whether his slider and his command have improved enough to make him an above average starter right now is debatable. If there are any questions in their minds, it will be Norris in the rotation.

[wildcard]

I am just saying that, because of the other factors, Gausman would have to beat out Norris by a very clear margin. Let's remember, spring training games aren't always the best venue to prove anything, because there are a lot of minor league players, and rusty major leaguers just "trying to get their work in," in these games. We all know Gausman throws harder than Norris and has a more devastating change-up. Whether Buck and his staff can make a firm determination about whether his slider and his command have improved enough to make him an above average starter right now is debatable.

If Wallace and Buck can't determine the quality of Gausman's pitches by watching him in ST, the O's have a big problem. I have more faith in both the manager and pitching coach than that.

[Frobby]

If Wallace and Buck can't determine the quality of Gausman's pitches by watching him in ST, the O's have a big problem. I have more faith is both manager and pitching coach than that.

In my opinion, this is a pretty absurd and simplistic statement. Buck and his staff are good at what they do, but they are not omniscient. You can watch bullpen sessions and spring training games all day, and there will still be uncertainty about how a guy is going to do when the bright lights are on, the major league batters are focused on beating the pitcher, and you want to run him out there every five days for 6-7 innings. I remember too well that year that Cabrera was utterly dominant all spring, the O's were drooling over him, and then he stunk it up the minute the season started.

[wildcard]

In my opinion, this is a pretty absurd and simplistic statement. Buck and his staff are good at what they do, but they are not omniscient. You can watch bullpen sessions and spring training games all day, and there will still be uncertainty about how a guy is going to do when the bright lights are on, the major league batters are focused on beating the pitcher, and you want to run him out there every five days for 6-7 innings. I remember too well that year that Cabrera was utterly dominant all spring, the O's were drooling over him, and then he stunk it up the minute the season started.

The away games in ST are against the other teams starter for at least 4 innings.

Wallace was the pitching coach of the 2003 World Champion Red Sox and helped develop the Braves young pitchers. He has demonstrated that he knows how to evaluate pitchers stuff. Its absurd to suggest he can't.

[Frobby]

The away games in ST are against the other teams starter for at least 4 innings.

Wallace was the pitching coach of the 2003 World Champion Red Sox and helped develop the Braves young pitchers. He has demonstrated that he knows how to evaluate pitchers stuff. Its absurd to suggest he can't.

I hope and expect that Wallace is good at his job. No pitching coach is infallible. Leo Mazzone proved that while he was here. I believe that Dan and Buck both think that Dave Wallace and Dom Chiti will be better pitching coaches than Rick Adair and Bill Castro, and will help our pitchers more. But I'm sure that Buck thought that Mark Connor would be better than Rick Kranitz. I'm generally skeptical that Dave Wallace or anyone else has some magical powers that will unlock the potential of all the underachievers on our pitching staff. Hopefully, he can help a couple of guys who didn't respond to Connor or Adair for whatever reason.

I have no reason to think that Wallace is not a good evaluator of pitchers. It still isn't a science to determine when a young pitcher is ready to perform well in the major leagues, and I don't think they'll start the year with Gausman in the rotation unless he absolutely knocks their socks off this spring, or if injuries dictate that they roll the dice with Gausman.

[Flosman]

I think the innings limit will also play into Gausman not being in the rotation out of ST. The O's are probably looking to limit him to around 180 or so and they will not want to have to worry about that in September. So I think they will hold him back a little early in the season.

[wildcard]

I hope and expect that Wallace is good at his job. No pitching coach is infallible. Leo Mazzone proved that while he was here. I believe that Dan and Buck both think that Dave Wallace and Dom Chiti will be better pitching coaches than Rick Adair and Bill Castro, and will help our pitchers more. But I'm sure that Buck thought that Mark Connor would be better than Rick Kranitz. I'm generally skeptical that Dave Wallace or anyone else has some magical powers that will unlock the potential of all the underachievers on our pitching staff. Hopefully, he can help a couple of guys who didn't respond to Connor or Adair for whatever reason.

I have no reason to think that Wallace is not a good evaluator of pitchers. It still isn't a science to determine when a young pitcher is ready to perform well in the major leagues, and I don't think they'll start the year with Gausman in the rotation unless he absolutely knocks their socks off this spring, or if injuries dictate that they roll the dice with Gausman.

If Gausman can command all three of his pitches and his slider is of high quality it will knock their socks off. If Gausman can't do that he probably goes to AAA. I think we agree on the substance of the discussion.

[NCRaven]

If Gausman can command all three of his pitches and his slider is of high quality it will knock their socks off. If Gausman can't do that he probably goes to AAA. I think we agree on the substance of the discussion.

The only real difference, it seams to me, is that you seem much more confident in Gausman's ability to prove himself during spring training than others do. If the O's do not sign a veteran starter, I think Gausman could well earn that spot over others like Britton, Matusz, Johnson, etal.. If they do sign a veteran starter (not including Yoon for the purpose of this conversation), I think Gausman is likely destined for Norfolk - almost despite anything he does in ST.

[Redskins Rick]

The only real difference, it seams to me, is that you seem much more confident in Gausman's ability to prove himself during spring training than others do. If the O's do not sign a veteran starter, I think Gausman could well earn that spot over others like Britton, Matusz, Johnson, etal.. If they do sign a veteran starter (not including Yoon for the purpose of this conversation), I think Gausman is likely destined for Norfolk - almost despite anything he does in ST.

Don't count Aceves out, he is a good pitcher, that can pitch, if his head is screwed on straight.