Assuming we use a draft pick to get Jimenez or Santana, shall we go ahead and get Morales?

[DrungoHazewood]

What makes you come to that conclusion? He hit .277 last year with 23HR and 80RBI playing half his games in pitcher heaven Safeco. If we had that at DH last year we would have been a playoff team. The guy switch hits and hits for both average and power while driving in runs. Throw him behind Jones and Davis and you're talking about a difference maker.

The Orioles finished seven games out of the playoffs. The difference between Morales' .785 OPS and the O's DHs' .704 was maybe 2-3 wins. They may have still missed the playoffs with Evan Longoria or Josh Donaldson DHing.

[DrungoHazewood]

If we sign Morales, I would imagine that extensions for Hardy and Wieters would be off the table since a Davis extension appears to be the priority and we're almost certainly not going to be carrying a $120 million dollar payroll next year and Markakis' contract is the only notable deal coming off the books(and that's not even a guarantee).

Win today, for yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come.

And anyway, Angelos might be gone and someone else can pay up.

[Ripken]

I'm all for Morales. I've wanted him and one of Jimenez/Santana. I really thought that and the smaller signings would make this team a serious competitor. It would get them to around $107M or so, which is not that much.

Then, you keep all 2015 picks, keep building internationally, sign no major FA, and do the following:

Let Nick walk, extend Hardy and Davis, move Hank to starting corner OF, and let Wieters play out his final year:

2014: Davis (10M), Hardy (8M), Nick (15M), Urrutia (1M; bench) = $34M

2015: Davis (20M), Hardy (12M), Urruria (1M; starting OF) = $33M

Manny and Tillman still have some cheap years and when the time comes to sign them do so while filling in the rotation with cheaper, controlled players like Guasman and Bundy. Here you get picks/players, and salary savings, by moving on from a couple of Norris, Chen, and Gonzo.

This is all very doable, being competitive now and for the future, for reasonable money, using the system, and only losing Matt. I've been hoping that was the plan. We'll see, but I really don't think CD is leaving, Boras or not, and I do hope Morales is signed.

I trust DD/Buck to assemble a decent pen from random parts.

There are a bunch of good rotation options now and years out.

Batting 2-6 for several seasons: Machado-Davis-Jones-Morales-Hardy

1,7-9 options are Urrutia, Lough, Flaherty, Schoop, and whomever else.

A starting C is the only need... but the org has a bunch of options.

[Frobby]

The Orioles finished seven games out of the playoffs. The difference between Morales' .785 OPS and the O's DHs' .704 was maybe 2-3 wins. They may have still missed the playoffs with Evan Longoria or Josh Donaldson DHing.

Win today, for yesterday is gone and tomorrow may never come.

And anyway, Angelos might be gone and someone else can pay up.

So are you for going after Morales, or against it?

The way I feel, with Jiminez and Morales signed, we would have filled two major holes from last year. That might or might not be enough to get us back in the playoffs, but I think it improves our odds substantially and leaves us in much better position if someone goes down with an injury. At this point, I'm ready to give up the no. 55 pick.

[Singleton]

So are you for going after Morales, or against it?

The way I feel, with Jiminez and Morales signed, we would have filled two major holes from last year. That might or might not be enough to get us back in the playoffs, but I think it improves our odds substantially and leaves us in much better position if someone goes down with an injury. At this point, I'm ready to give up the no. 55 pick.

I just find it amusing that a week ago there was the talk that the sound reasoning against signing someone that cost a pick was that we were kickin' it old school and understood we could ONLY compete by building a strong farm system.

One risky signing later (that could work out) and we're ready to essentially sit out the draft.

I wouldn't sign Morales but then I wouldn't have signed Jimenez. I'd have signed a pitcher earlier in the offseason that had a decent shot to be just as good without losing my pick (Hudson or Kazmir) and I probably would have gone for someone like C. Hart for $5 mil to fill the DH spot and kept my 2nd round pick.

I don't think our odds are much better to compete this year by signing the pick costing players but I'm quite certain that losing our top 3 picks (I'm counting the supp pick we traded) is going to really weaken our system down the road.

Here's to hoping the all-in strategy works.

[DrungoHazewood]

So are you for going after Morales, or against it?

The way I feel, with Jiminez and Morales signed, we would have filled two major holes from last year. That might or might not be enough to get us back in the playoffs, but I think it improves our odds substantially and leaves us in much better position if someone goes down with an injury. At this point, I'm ready to give up the no. 55 pick.

For, but I have no illusions that it will be likely to add more than 1-2 wins.

[33rdst]

I've always liked Morales. That said, I don't see the O's making this move. Not because of the pick but more so the dollars. I see Duquette using some of the few million he has left to provide bonus money for Hardy's extension. The remainder will be kept for in season moves. The hitter we need will come from a trade. Likely Britton.

[33rdst]

I've always liked Morales. That said, I don't see the O's making this move. Not because of the pick but more so the dollars. I see Duquette using some of the few million he has left to provide bonus money for Hardy's extension. The remainder will be kept for in season moves. The hitter we need will come from a trade. Likely Britton.

...........

[Ruzious]

The Orioles finished seven games out of the playoffs. The difference between Morales' .785 OPS and the O's DHs' .704 was maybe 2-3 wins. They may have still missed the playoffs with Evan Longoria or Josh Donaldson DHing.

But we don't have Valencia, and I assume that if you take out Valencia's stats, that .704 goes down to something very not good. The O's need to get a competent DH. It doesn't have to be Morales, but you can't depend on a Valencia appearing out of nowhere like he basically did last season. That was luck. Relying on that kind of luck again would be fill in the blank.

[Frobby]

For, but I have no illusions that it will be likely to add more than 1-2 wins.

I don't look at WAR that literally. I look at the team as a whole and ask, where are the weak spots that can be attacked? How many are there? I think sometimes, adding a player who is worth 1-2 wins statistically can be worth more than that in reality, depending on what the needs of the team are.

As it stands now, we pretty much know what to expect at six spots, and have question marks at 2B, DH and LF. I feel like adding Moralez not only removes the question mark at DH, it makes LF more competitive. He also adds to depth in case of injuries to other DH/LF candidates. So, I think Morales could be worth more than 1-2 wins. Not to say he will be.

Also, I like his chances to hit significantly better playing in OPACY and the other AL East ballparks than he did in LA or Seattle.

[33rdst]

I don't look at WAR that literally. I look at the team as a whole and ask, where are the weak spots that can be attacked? How many are there? I think sometimes, adding a player who is worth 1-2 wins statistically can be worth more than that in reality, depending on what the needs of the team are.

As it stands now, we pretty much know what to expect at six spots, and have question marks at 2B, DH and LF. I feel like adding Moralez not only removes the question mark at DH, it makes LF more competitive. He also adds to depth in case of injuries to other DH/LF candidates. So, I think Morales could be worth more than 1-2 wins. Not to say he will be.

Also, I like his chances to hit significantly better playing in OPACY and the other AL East ballparks than he did in LA or Seattle.

This is an excellent point. The value a player brings beyond the numbers, though difficult to measure, exists nonetheless.

[srock]

This is an excellent point. The value a player brings beyond the numbers, though difficult to measure, exists nonetheless.

Also, WAR is not necessarily a great projection system. Just because someone puts up 3 WAR one season with a team does not mean they will put up 3 WAR the following season, especially with a different team.

Its an input in estimating future production, but far from a good predictor.

[El Gordo]

This is an excellent point. The value a player brings beyond the numbers, though difficult to measure, exists nonetheless.

Morales was worth 84 FB total runs last year. DH Ryan Doumit was worth 58 with .714 OPS. Assuming the O's DH at .706, was a few TR less, I'd say Morales is a 3 W upgrade over last season, not counting any residual effect his bat would have on the rest of the lineup.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah I don't understand the thinking that players "add" or "subtract" wins. WAR is a nice tool to gauge value, etc, but it's just not that simple from a loss column perspective.

I take it (usually) near face value to avoid falling into the "guy we just signed is obviously a positive WAR outlier" trap. Every player/team/fanbase can come up with reasons their guy will have a disproportionate impact.

[DrungoHazewood]

Also, WAR is not necessarily a great projection system. Just because someone puts up 3 WAR one season with a team does not mean they will put up 3 WAR the following season, especially with a different team.

Its an input in estimating future production, but far from a good predictor.

Right. There is no reason to believe last year's .785 OPS, 2-win 30-year-old will get to that level at 31.