Is it a stretch to think that Joseph could replicate the offensive output that Wieters has averaged?

[Flash- bd]

They are EXTREMELY rare. Without PEDS. Extremely. Almost never.

Indeed, he's in the right. But all rules have their exceptions, all cases their intricacies and complications.

I like 'em young!

BTW your guy is having quite the game today.

Every squirrel finds a blind nut.

[CA-ORIOLE]

There is no way, looking at his minor league resume, that I just assume he can handle the starter's job going forward.

Yes he is playing well now but this season screams outlier.

A week or two ago they (probably Thorne) made some comments about Joseph on an Orioles broadcast, quoting someone from the Orioles staff. I don't know who they quoted and the name may not have even been mentioned. The gist of it was (I may not be quoting exactly):

"Joseph has above average skills, so why isn't he an above average catcher? We're supposed to develop guys, so lets develop him".

At some point I think you just have to believe what you're seeing (objectively and subjectively) and mitigate the relevance of old scouting reports.

[Can_of_corn]

A week or two ago they (probably Thorne) made some comments about Joseph on an Orioles broadcast, quoting someone from the Orioles staff. I don't know who and they quoted and it may not have been mentioned. The gist of it was (I may not be quoting exactly):

"Joseph has above average skills, so why isn't he an above average catcher? We're supposed to develop guys, so lets develop him".

At some point I think you just have to believe what you're seeing (objectively and subjectively) and mitigate the relevance of old scouting reports.

I wasn't talking about scouting reports (although I should have mentioned them), I am talking about six years in the minors, 486 games at Catcher.

I have no issues with handing him the backup job and giving him more playing time then Buck has given backups in the past. I am OK with him being the #1 Catcher in April if Matt isn't healthy.

I am not ready to hand him the keys to the franchise.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I wasn't talking about scouting reports (although I should have mentioned them), I am talking about six years in the minors, 486 games at Catcher.

I have no issues with handing him the backup job and giving him more playing time then Buck has given backups in the past. I am OK with him being the #1 Catcher in April if Matt isn't healthy.

I am not ready to hand him the keys to the franchise.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I didn't insinuate we should hand him the keys to the franchise.

Past reports, past scouting reports, whatever. Past. The important part of that quote was that at least one evaluator (at a pretty high level) was questioning the assessments and development of this guy at the lower levels and thought that Joseph had above average defensive skills and that something was amiss. He pretty clearly appears to have been right. Is it so hard for you to believe that his development may have been mismanaged?

[jtschrei]

I'm starting to believe that Joseph could be a starter and I wonder if that makes Matt expendable. Joseph has been amazing!

[Can_of_corn]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I didn't insinuate we should hand him the keys to the franchise.

Past reports, past scouting reports, whatever. Past. The important part of that quote was that at least one evaluator (at a pretty high level) was questioning the assessments and development of this guy at the lower levels and thought that Joseph had above average defensive skills and that something was amiss. He pretty clearly appears to have been right. Is it so hard for you to believe that his development may have been mismanaged?

I don't think this guy stays in a system for six years and no one notices him.

Would be great if I'm wrong.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I don't think this guy stays in a system for six years and no one notices him. Would be great if I'm wrong.

I think his pedigree made him an easy guy to be overlooked and that doesn't surprise me a bit.

[Il BuonO]

I think his pedigree made him an easy guy to be overlooked and that doesn't surprise me a bit.

Agreed, not like they had a great track record of development.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm cautiously optimistic that Joseph can be a decent catcher in the majors for a while, maybe even a middling starter. His .671 OPS (before today's game) is probably sustainable for at least a few years.

I also know that a large fraction of his value is defensive, as measured by the metrics. And if an Oriole had been rated a -9 defender in half a year by bb-ref (as Joseph is a +9) or Fangraphs we'd have three threads a day about how stupid defensive metrics are. I think it's very unlikely, essentially impossible, that he's really a +18 defensive catcher as a regular.

So, I think Joseph will probably be a .650-.700 OPS hitter with slightly above average defense. Who's already at or past peak. That's a starter you can probably live with, or a very good backup.

[DrungoHazewood]

They are EXTREMELY rare. Without PEDS. Extremely. Almost never.

I wouldn't oversell that. In 1910 or 1940 there were guys who were stuck in the minors until they were 29 and had their best MLB season at 34. Not often. But it certainly happened. Dwight Evans had his best 3- or 5-year period in his mid-30s.

[zweem]

I'm cautiously optimistic that Joseph can be a decent catcher in the majors for a while, maybe even a middling starter. His .671 OPS (before today's game) is probably sustainable for at least a few years.

I also know that a large fraction of his value is defensive, as measured by the metrics. And if an Oriole had been rated a -9 defender in half a year by bb-ref (as Joseph is a +9) or Fangraphs we'd have three threads a day about how stupid defensive metrics are. I think it's very unlikely, essentially impossible, that he's really a +18 defensive catcher as a regular.

So, I think Joseph will probably be a .650-.700 OPS hitter with slightly above average defense. Who's already at or past peak. That's a starter you can probably live with, or a very good backup.

I see that you don't feel he will improve much with experience. Most rookies either improve with experience ---or they are caught up with by the league. I look for Joseph to improve to the .700-.750 range. And then there is the framing debate. I think Joseph wins this hands-down

[Ruzious]

Looking forward to Caleb starting 50 to 60 games next year and allowing Weiters to be the most effective player he can be - long-term and short.

[WV O's]

Joseph had a great year last year in the minors, so this isn't exactly a complete outlier.

I don't know if he can sustain it, but it sure looks like he has some consistently solid AB's to me.

[MurphDogg]

[/color]

I see that you don't feel he will improve much with experience. Most rookies either improve with experience ---or they are caught up with by the league. I look for Joseph to improve to the .700-.750 range. And then there is the framing debate. I think Joseph wins this hands-down

Most rookies aren't 28 years old. As for the framing debate, Joseph saved 10.2 runs in his first 42 games at catcher based on BP's pitch framing stat. Over his next 24 games he has saved 0.9 runs. Neither are a particularly large sample size but it is clear that he isn't going to save 25.3 runs per season via pitch framing as Camden Depot had hoped.

[DrungoHazewood]

Joseph had a great year last year in the minors' date=' so this isn't exactly a complete outlier.[/quote']

Last year Caleb Joseph was 13th in the Eastern League in OPS, and 11 of the 12 players ahead of him were younger. Some by as much as seven years. He was clearly outplayed by Xander Bogaerts and Maikel Franco, who were both in the same league and 20 years old. Joseph also played more games at other positions than he did catcher. Coming into 2014 if someone had said Joseph would be, on a per-game basis while playing 100ish games, one of the most valuable catchers in baseball you would have been laughed off the messageboard.

It is very rare for someone who was a) drafted out of college and subsequently b) spent most of four years in AA, to then become a solid major league player.