The O's have the better pitching

[pccp82]

9-2 and 7-1 are not that far apart.

Not to support the claim that the Tigers are vastly superior as some have implied.

...but that's winning the world series.

to represent the AL its 9/5 versus 13/4.

1.8:1 versus 3.25:1. those odds pay like its almost twice (3.25/1.8=1.8) as likely to occur. And that still not taking the direct head to head odds to win ALDS ( I cant find them easily for some awful reason)

I am not implying that Tigers are vastly superior....just that they are (rightfully) favored to advance. But baseball has more RNG than any other game, and 3-5 games are a small sample. The Orioles could easily outperform the Tigers in that span and be well within what could be expected to happen.

[DrungoHazewood]

OH I certainly agree we could win this. I'm just not sure walking into the stadium thinking your the team to beat is a great idea. This is going to be a challenge. Being a big stats guy like yourself, maybe you can help. But it seems very difficult to get head-to-head stats for SP vs projected hitters for this season. If you go to Yahoo and check the game logs, you could get a feel for it. I'm just not sure why those behind the curtains of these sites seemed to cutoff those stats during the playoffs. (during fantasy league I could see any pitcher vs an batter stats for this season, last season, etc.. not now though,). Do they want to hoard that information for themselves? What gives.?

bb-ref has all of this, such as here. But the samples are so small as to be meaningless. Even for someone like Markakis vs. Verlander he's only had 53 PAs spread over many years, which is about as many as he'd have in a good week and a half.

[Hallas]

I don't think it's right to say that the O's have better pitching. But when it comes to run prevention, the Orioles are almost certainly better.

Pitching

Tigers: 178.2 runs above replacement

Orioles: 134.1

Defense

Tigers: -42.2

Orioles: 55.4

Net:

Tigers: 136.0

Orioles: 189.5

RA9

Orioles: 3.65

Tigers: 4.36

The defense is basically why the Orioles present better pitching. The Tigers can't field. at. all.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think it's right to say that the O's have better pitching. But when it comes to run prevention, the Orioles are almost certainly better.

Pitching

Tigers: 178.2 runs above replacement

Orioles: 134.1

Defense

Tigers: -42.2

Orioles: 55.4

Net:

Tigers: 136.0

Orioles: 189.5

RA9

Orioles: 3.65

Tigers: 4.36

The defense is basically why the Orioles present better pitching. The Tigers can't field. at. all.

According to the Total Zone rankings on Fangraphs the only modern Oriole team with defense as bad as the 2014 Tigers was the 2003 Orioles*. All of the other O's teams since '54 have been better than -42 defense.

* Who doesn't fondly recall the glovework of Deivi Cruz, geriatric versions of Conine and Surhoff, Tony Batista, Jay Gibbons with 160 games in RF, David Segui, Bigbie, Matos...

[McLovin]

There's little evidence that pitching-heavy teams, or starter-heavy teams have any advantages in a short series over other kinds of good teams. If having good starters were the biggest key to winning in the playoffs then the '66 Dodgers wouldn't have lost. The 90s Braves would have won a lot more often. Pedro Martinez would have more than one ring.

OK then. There is probably evidence that says really good pitchers pitch really well, and the O's are about to face three really good pitchers.

[Hallas]

OK then. There is probably evidence that says really good pitchers pitch really well, and the O's are about to face three really good pitchers.

The Orioles have 4 slightly above average pitchers that pitch like aces because their defense behind them catches everything.

Right?

[McLovin]

The Orioles have 4 slightly above average pitchers that pitch like aces because their defense behind them catches everything.

Right?

So long as it's not to 3rd or the outfield seats.

[Malike]

This could be an interesting series. I could see the O's winning this series, but I think it's more realistic that they will get dominated by the Detroit starters. K pitchers and a free swinging, horrible OBP team usually aren't a good matchup.

[O's84]

According to the Total Zone rankings on Fangraphs the only modern Oriole team with defense as bad as the 2014 Tigers was the 2003 Orioles*. All of the other O's teams since '54 have been better than -42 defense.

* Who doesn't fondly recall the glovework of Deivi Cruz, geriatric versions of Conine and Surhoff, Tony Batista, Jay Gibbons with 160 games in RF, David Segui, Bigbie, Matos...

Please, I have to sleep at night.

[larrytt]

It boggles my mind that people still look at ERA as an individual statistic, when it is quite clearly a team stat over which individual pitchers have a fair amount of control.

I think you can say that the Orioles have the better run prevention. But it would be something of a stretch to say they have better starting pitching.

In the context, I'm really talking about our pitching with our defense - it's a package deal. Part of this comes from the MLB report that compares the Orioles and Tigers, position by position. There's a whole thread on that here. (I commented there as well, where the context was clearer.) When covering the position players, they basically ignored defense - it was all about offense. (The only mention of actual defense was for catchers catching base stealers, and a mention that Detroit was looking for better defense down the stretch. So when they got to the pitching, it can only be assumed they are talking about the pitching along with their defense. It's true, of course, that Oriole pitching looks better because of the defense, but to many of us it really is a package deal. And right now the Orioles "run prevention" skills (as someone put it) seem farther ahead of Detroit's than their run scoring skills are ahead of ours.

[O's are Legends]

Espn -

Pitcher Victor Martinez, who had just signed the paperwork, had a conversation with Cabrera in Spanish. Cabrera maintained his position, concluding by saying: "I just want the ring."

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11625438/miguel-cabrera-detroit-tigers-sign-paperwork-playoff-bonus

[LoyalBirdFan]

In the context, I'm really talking about our pitching with our defense - it's a package deal. Part of this comes from the MLB report that compares the Orioles and Tigers, position by position. There's a whole thread on that here. (I commented there as well, where the context was clearer.) When covering the position players, they basically ignored defense - it was all about offense. (The only mention of actual defense was for catchers catching base stealers, and a mention that Detroit was looking for better defense down the stretch. So when they got to the pitching, it can only be assumed they are talking about the pitching along with their defense. It's true, of course, that Oriole pitching looks better because of the defense, but to many of us it really is a package deal. And right now the Orioles "run prevention" skills (as someone put it) seem farther ahead of Detroit's than their run scoring skills are ahead of ours.

I think most reasonable people understood.

[O's84]

Espn -

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11625438/miguel-cabrera-detroit-tigers-sign-paperwork-playoff-bonus

He's no Chris Davis.

[Gettinmiggy]

I think Baltimore fans are undervaluing the factor of post season experience.

[Zerokarma]

I think Baltimore fans are undervaluing the factor of post season experience.

Actually, from a statistical perspective there isn't obvious value to experience in the playoffs. Nor is great starting pitching a predictor of success. It's in the playoff myths article on Grantland.

The best indicator would be regular season performance meaning the O's have a hell of a shot.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-playoff-myths-to-ignore/