Keri: 2015 Os Should Be Even Better

[primetime]

Ortiz in Boston was better, more popular, and had more of a history with the team, and they got him back on a series of 1-year deals (maybe one 2-year deal thrown in there somewhere) for less than $15M.

If David Ortiz gets 1/15 contracts in his mid-30s I don't see how either player or team could expect Cruz to get some of the 4/50 or bigger deals I've seen thrown around.

Do you think the run suppressed environment we're in may change other team's approaches this off season? In other words, with power becoming such a scarce commodity, could there be a team or teams will to pony up a multi-year deal for Cruz despite his age?

[Aristotelian]

That is so true. It may not be Wieters and Machado but somebody is going down next season; the law of averages demands it. I think the article on the whole is short sighted.

Yes, but that is just as true of every other team in MLB, possibly more so for veteran teams like the Yankees. The O's are starting as a playoff team plus Manny and Wieters. Not many teams can say that.

[DrungoHazewood]

Do you think the run suppressed environment we're in may change other team's approaches this off season? In other words, with power becoming such a scarce commodity, could there be a team or teams will to pony up a multi-year deal for Cruz despite his age?

I think value is still primarily assessed overall, and he'll be roughly assessed based on $6M x (projected value) x years. Cruz was good but he's still likely to decline, had months of almost zero productivity, is a bad fielder, and a zero baserunner. Teams aren't going to say, heck with it, I need power and I'm going to throw out his age and one-dimensional play and pay him like he's a 6-win player!

[weams]

I think value is still primarily assessed overall, and he'll be roughly assessed based on $6M x (projected value) x years. Cruz was good but he's still likely to decline, had months of almost zero productivity, is a bad fielder, and a zero baserunner. Teams aren't going to say, heck with it, I need power and I'm going to throw out his age and one-dimensional play and pay him like he's a 6-win player!

You do believe he is worth the 15.3 on a one year deal though?

If so, then he would have a second year value of close to 12.

And a final year value of 8 again.

So he is "Worth" 3/35?

[primetime]

I think value is still primarily assessed overall, and he'll be roughly assessed based on $6M x (projected value) x years. Cruz was good but he's still likely to decline, had months of almost zero productivity, is a bad fielder, and a zero baserunner. Teams aren't going to say, heck with it, I need power and I'm going to throw out his age and one-dimensional play and pay him like he's a 6-win player!

Some of the "reports" you hear are teams might throw 3-4 years at Cruz and anywhere between $13-16 mill per, which is nuts of course.

It makes you wonder if it can be written off as talking head speculation or will some team just see the bottom line of 40 HR and say "I gotta have that!'

[weams]

Some of the "reports" you hear are teams might throw 3-4 years at Cruz and anywhere between $13-16 mill per, which is nuts of course.

It makes you wonder if it can be written off as talking head speculation or will some team just see the bottom line of 40 HR and say "I gotta have that!'

There are 26 other teams that want what we had this year.

[primetime]

There are 26 other teams that want what we had this year.

I'm not following you. I know other teams would love to be a final four team but how does that relate to Cruz? Do you think if we lose him we won't get back to an ALCS?

[weams]

I'm not following you. I know other teams would love to be a final four team but how does that relate to Cruz? Do you think if we lose him we won't get back to an ALCS?

I mean they value what he brought to us. Not that we need that to succeed.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm not following you. I know other teams would love to be a final four team but how does that relate to Cruz? Do you think if we lose him we won't get back to an ALCS?

I think that resigning Cruz means there's a ~80% chance that you don't get 2014 Cruz' production from his ABs in 2015. Everyone wants the league HR leader and an .850 OPS hitter, but Cruz is highly unlikely to do that for anyone.

[Aristotelian]

I think that resigning Cruz means there's a ~80% chance that you don't get 2014 Cruz' production from his ABs in 2015. Everyone wants the league HR leader and an .850 OPS hitter, but Cruz is highly unlikely to do that for anyone.

Cruz's career OPS is not that far off of .850. If he will accept the DH role I think he can stay healthy. Might not get the 40 HR, but 30 HR with .260/.330/.500/.830 is completely doable for at least a couple years. The question is how much is that worth. Probably $12 million/year but not $15-$20 million.

[DrungoHazewood]

Cruz's career OPS is not that far off of .850. If he will accept the DH role I think he can stay healthy. Might not get the 40 HR, but 30 HR with .260/.330/.500/.830 is completely doable for at least a couple years. The question is how much is that worth. Probably $12 million/year but not $15-$20 million.

Do-able? Sure. But it's just as do-able that he follows the Boog Powell career path from 30-35: OPS+s of 129, 126, 129, 154, 90, 83, retired. Or Greg Luzinski, who had a 129 at 32, an 89 at 33, then retired. Or Reggie led the league in homers at 36 with a 147 OPS+, the next year he had a 74 OPS+ (although he oddly rebounded at 39/40). Or even more likely he just can't stay healthy - Canseco was great through 34, had a 134 OPS+, then never played 100 games again. Look at Cruz' "through age 33" comps on bb-ref: Gus Zernial, last season as a regular at 34. Josh Willingham, .890 at 33, has hit .211 with a .724 since. Phil Nevin, .859 at 33, played two more years with a .715. Wally Post had a 130 OPS+ at 31-32, played 31 games for the rest of his career.

Catastrophic collapse and inability to stay in the lineup is always a possibility in your mid-30s.

[Il BuonO]

He went after Cruz at a considerable discount. Jimenez contract was at a discount in years.

Jimenez was getting three years from everyone involved until the Orioles came into the picture. People scoffed at the idea that we would give him a 4th year. In fact, some believed we were bidding against ourselves.

[weams]

Jimenez was getting three years from everyone involved until the Orioles came into the picture. People scoffed at the idea that we would give him a 4th year. In fact, some believed we were bidding against ourselves.

There was supposedly evidence that he had the three year offer at close to 42. I forget where I had heard that at though so maybe I am mis-remembering.

[Il BuonO]

There was supposedly evidence that he had the three year offer at close to 42. I forget where I had heard that at though so maybe I am mis-remembering.

Maybe, in any case four years was in no way a discount in years. I'm encouraged by the work he did with his mechanics out of the BP at the end of the year though. Tells me he knows he needed to do something to improve. I don't see Dan dumping him before seeing if those improvements can be sustained in the rotation.

[Bradysburns]

C McCann

1B Teix

2B Prado

3B Hundley

SS Han Ram

LF Gardner

CF Elsbury

RF Beltran/Rasmus

DH ARoid

SP

Scherzer

Sheilds

Peneda

Greene

McCarthy

Tanaka?

CC?

Pen

Betances, Miller, Robertson, Kelly

etc.

Yeah, .500 team definitely.

If they get Scherzer AND Shields, that could be pretty rough for the division. They won't really need hitting at that point.

To me, the Orioles will be better just by getting back Machado, Davis and Wieters. That was a terrible 1-2-3 injury punch, and I think it killed us in the playoffs.

The real question is, what are we going to do to sustain the winning after 2015? That's where things could get weird.

Imagine though, the dream scenario. We sign Scherzer this offseason, and keep all our current guys, including Cruz. Is something like that even in the realm of possibility? Probably not. But that'd be a scary roster.