Davis thinks his poor performance was due to an injury

[foxfield]

A torn Rectus Abdominis. Like Henry Urrutia had last year.

Rectus hell, damn near killed us!

[Can_of_corn]

Ahh I thought that's where you might go. Huge oversimplification. Is defense not important because we would all pick Derek Jeter over Cesar izturis? In this case Dunn because the rest of his game makes up for the gap in BA. Average matters, it's just not the only thing that matters. If Dunn were to improve his BA while maintaining his walk rate and power, he would be a truly elite player. Something like BA can be important without it being the only thing that is important.

The oversimplification is when you look at and talk about Batting Average instead of the more important statistics.

There it plenty to be critical about without bringing up batting average.

And of course we were not talking about defense of else Schoop's offensive woes wouldn't be an issue.

[ledzepp8]

Ahh I thought that's where you might go. Huge oversimplification. Is defense not important because we would all pick Derek Jeter over Cesar izturis? In this case Dunn because the rest of his game makes up for the gap in BA. Average matters, it's just not the only thing that matters. If Dunn were to improve his BA while maintaining his walk rate and power, he would be a truly elite player. Something like BA can be important without it being the only thing that is important.

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Maybe Can of corn shouldn't have said BA isn't important at all but in the grand scheme of things, it's probably towards the bottom of the list of important things, somewhere near sacrifice flies or infield singles. I also don't see how his example was an oversimplification. That perfectly illustrates the lack of importance of BA. If everything else is equal when comparing players, maybe you give some extra weight to BA. But that's usually not the case. The point is that comparing BA gives you no context.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Maybe Can of corn shouldn't have said BA isn't important at all but in the grand scheme of things, it's probably towards the bottom of the list of important things, somewhere near sacrifice flies or infield singles. I also don't see how his example was an oversimplification. That perfectly illustrates the lack of importance of BA. If everything else is equal when comparing players, maybe you give some extra weight to BA. But that's usually not the case. The point is that comparing BA gives you no context.

Well that's the fault of the individual omitting context, then, right? The fact that some may use a number incorrectly or in an incomplete manner doesn't make the number useless or unimportant. Looking at BA, OBP, SLG, etc. help us paint a more complete picture of a player. Isn't part of the movement to more analytical/statistics-based approaches about having as much information as possible? Why try to close the door on certain data points? Maybe you think OBP or OPS is more important than BA, but trying to limit discussion to one super number seems to fly in the face of what we should be doing. I don't dispute that batting average is not the end-all-be-all, but I don't think anyone has taken that position...

[TonySoprano]

My prediction is a big bounce-back season from Davis under Coolbaugh.

[Redskins Rick]

My prediction is a big bounce-back season from Davis under Coolbaugh.

That would be great to see, especially with Cruz going to Seattle. Got to replace that missed production.

[Can_of_corn]

Maybe Can of corn shouldn't have said BA isn't important at all but in the grand scheme of things, it's probably towards the bottom of the list of important things, somewhere near sacrifice flies or infield singles. I also don't see how his example was an oversimplification. That perfectly illustrates the lack of importance of BA. If everything else is equal when comparing players, maybe you give some extra weight to BA. But that's usually not the case. The point is that comparing BA gives you no context.

If someone's first instinct is to cite batting average I'm going to be dismissive.

[Frobby]

The oversimplification is when you look at and talk about Batting Average instead of the more important statistics.

There it plenty to be critical about without bringing up batting average.

Let's go back to the context that started this silly debate. The poster said, "a .200 ave. isn't going to cut it." I think that's basically true. I think we can all agree that if Chris Davis repeated his 2014 season we'd all be very disappointed. If you compare his 2012 season (which most posters have said was satisfactory) with his 2014 season, what were the big differences?

BA: .270 vs. .197

BB/PA: .066 vs. .114

ISO: .238 vs. .201

A poor BA was the biggest failing. Davis' walk rate was actually much better in 2014 than in 2012, but not enough to overcome the huge drop in BA. ISO also was down, but .201 is still a very solid ISO. Put it this way, I'd rather see Davis have a .270 BA with a .201 ISO than have a .197 BA with a .238 ISO.

[cmurter]

This is a joke, right?

Unfortunately, it is not. Even though the majority of statistics that will be quoted as "important" are heavily influenced by a player's batting average.

...but posting something eye catching like "batting averages are not important" on the other hand is a phenomenal way to hijack a thread. Glad we're back on track

[Frobby]

Hold on...you think it's doable that he can hit .328 on bunt attempts?

Of course he can't. He'd be lucky to average .260. For the three weeks until they never shifted on him again.

I think he can bunt it past the pitcher 30 percent of the time. I think that he will strike out 30 percent of the time. I think the shortstop can get to it 10 percent of the time. I think the catcher plays the ball 8 percent of the time.

I think it's really hard to know how a hitter would do if he regularly bunted against the shift. I can't think of a single player who has actually tried it. However, in 2011, batters who bunted in non-sacrifice situations batted .438. http://www.billjamesonline.com/bunting_for_a_hit/

On the one hand, you have to assume that the players who attempt to bunt for a hit the most often are the players who are fast and good at bunting. On the other hand, one would assume that most bunt attempts are not against the crazy shifts we see today where the 3B is basically playing at the SS position.

My default guess is that a player like Davis probably could rack up a .350-.450 BA bunting against the shift. The next question is, would other teams move away from the shift if he had that success rate? At .350, they might not. At .400, I'm sure they would have to adjust.

Edit: Here's a really good article from 2007 discussing success rates when bunting for a hit. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6446 All kinds of data in this article.

[stomperspc]

It would be interesting to see Davis or a similar left-handed power hitter bunt a significant amount against the shift. I think it is difficult to just throw percentages out there because there are a lot of different situations Davis could come to the plate in. I would say Davis and the team would likely prefer for him to bunt in these situations (all else being equal):

* Nobody on, nobody out and the Orioles down by several runs

* The Orioles are in the lead later in the game by a comfortable margin

Davis and the team would probably prefer he didn’t bunt when:

* Runner on, tied game or the Orioles down by one

* Nobody on and a tied game of the Orioles down by one

* X runners on with the Orioles down by X runs

Basically, anytime where he has the potential to give the team the lead or tie the game, I think they would shy away from having him bunt. He’s too dangerous of a power hitter to be bunting in those situations unless it is a really poor match up for him. When the O’s need several base runners and/or are playing for tack on runs, they’d probably be more open to Davis bunting.

My guess is teams would still shift Davis in those sorts of high leverage situations. In a high leverage situation, he is likely going to swing away. If Davis is getting all of his bunt hits in relatively unimportant situations, I got to think teams will eventually notice. They will then have a decision to make on whether to continue shifting in those situations or adjust. So maybe Davis starts to lay down bunts behind by several runs, some teams stop ****ting him in those situations, and he is able to do some damage without having to worry about the shift. A lot of that is dependent on other variables, however. At a certain point, you probably get to overthinking it.

I do think Davis’ point about not having opposite field power last year (to the level he did in 2013) is valid. Looking at this spray charts, there are significantly more doubles, triples, and long outs to LF in 2013 than 2014. Whether that was because of his oblique or not, who knows, but

[bobmc]

It's actually one of the abdominal muscles. Not what it sounds like.

Rectus being "right" side - great Caesar's ghost!

[bobmc]

And I don't think Nick ever blamed anything on that injury. He thought he had a bone bruise. The torn stomach muscle was diagnosed after the "bruise" hadn't healed two months into the offseason.

I still recall a catch Nick made in game 161 that year on a shallow liner near the foul line where he laid out to make the catch and caught it sliding on his belly. It must have hurt like hell to make that move with a torn abdominal muscle. It might be my favorite Nick Markskis moment. He IS a tough SOB.

FTFY - we shall see as he roams RF in Hotlanta and other climes....

[Frobby]

And I don't think Nick ever blamed anything on that injury. He thought he had a bone bruise. The torn stomach muscle was diagnosed after the "bruise" hadn't healed two months into the offseason.

I still recall a catch Nick made in game 161 that year on a shallow liner near the foul line where he laid out to make the catch and caught it sliding on his belly. It must have hurt like hell to make that move with a torn abdominal muscle. It might be my favorite Nick Markakis moment. He was a tough SOB.

Here's a video of the catch I referenced. Still blows my mind that he did that with a torn abdominal muscle. Ouch! http://m.orioles.mlb.com/news/article/25865862/

[MdSooner]

If someone's first instinct is to cite batting average I'm going to be dismissive.

And if batting averages were not important, MLB would NOT keep track of such statistics

SMH