Are the Orioles overrating Alvarez?

[purple@orange]

I seriously don't get why Duquette and the O's management are so high on Dariel Alvarez. This morning, for example, I heard Duquette compare him to a young Jose Bautista. Seriously? He really thinks this kid could be a 40 HR/year slugger?

I know the O's (like a lot of teams) overrate their own prospects but this seems like overkill. Most objective scouting sources rate Alvarez as a 4th outfielder at best, saying his strong throwing arm is his only dominant tool

[BohKnowsBmore]

I seriously don't get why Duquette and the O's management are so high on Dariel Alvarez. This morning, for example, I heard Duquette compare him to a young Jose Bautista. Seriously? He really thinks this kid could be a 40 HR/year slugger?

I know the O's (like a lot of teams) overrate their own prospects but this seems like overkill. Most objective scouting sources rate Alvarez as a 4th outfielder at best, saying his strong throwing arm is his only dominant tool

Two things.

1) Maybe. They could be overrating him. Hard to say. Young Jose Bautista wasn't viewed as a 40-HR guy, so it's not as though he's saying he was Trout or Harper-like as an OF prospect. Even if they are overrating him somehow, I don't see the harm in it. He's not written in pen as a starter for 2015 or 2016 at this point.

2) So what? DD went on a program and talked up one of his players. I really don't think you can expect ANY team to take the line of "objective scouting sources" in discussing their own players with the media.

[LA2]

I seriously don't get why Duquette and the O's management are so high on Dariel Alvarez. This morning, for example, I heard Duquette compare him to a young Jose Bautista. Seriously? He really thinks this kid could be a 40 HR/year slugger?

I know the O's (like a lot of teams) overrate their own prospects but this seems like overkill. Most objective scouting sources rate Alvarez as a 4th outfielder at best, saying his strong throwing arm is his only dominant tool

Duquette has an out--the young Jose Bautista was nothing special.

[murph]

Duquette has an out--the all natural Jose Bautista was nothing special.

ftfy

[Camden_yardbird]

I seriously don't get why Duquette and the O's management are so high on Dariel Alvarez. This morning, for example, I heard Duquette compare him to a young Jose Bautista. Seriously? He really thinks this kid could be a 40 HR/year slugger?

I know the O's (like a lot of teams) overrate their own prospects but this seems like overkill. Most objective scouting sources rate Alvarez as a 4th outfielder at best, saying his strong throwing arm is his only dominant tool

As someone who watched a young Bautista come up with Pittsburgh...the line on him was decent fielder, high doubles potential, may develop into 10-15 HR hitter in his peak years.

That's a perfectly legit major league player. Not everyone is going to be a star.

[Redskins Rick]

I believe his name has come up in talks with other MLB teams.

So maybe it's more of a case where his own fans are under-evaluating him?

[CA-ORIOLE]

LOL, I didn't hear it but it's been obvious that Duquette is really high on him.

[Ruzious]

A key difference between a young Jose Bautista and Alvarez is that a young Jose Bautista was young.

[Aristotelian]

If DD was truly high on Alvarez, we would not have brought in Travis Snider or gone to arbitration with De Aza. He may be overrating Alvarez in his words but in his actions he is treating Alvarez as he should--a prospect with upside but who has not yet proved himself capable of playing MLB. If Alvarez was taking playing time from somebody who should be higher on the organizational chart, then it might be time to worry.

[BohKnowsBmore]

If DD was truly high on Alvarez, we would not have brought in Travis Snider or gone to arbitration with De Aza. He may be overrating Alvarez in his words but in his actions he is treating Alvarez as he should--a prospect with upside but who has not yet proved himself capable of playing MLB. If Alvarez was taking playing time from somebody who should be higher on the organizational chart, then it might be time to worry.

This was what I was trying to say to some degree. It's not as though they're putting all of their eggs in the Alvarez basket or giving him time and attention over clearly superior options.

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[Ohfan67]

A key difference between a young Jose Bautista and Alvarez is that a young Jose Bautista was young.

Ha!!! I chuckled out loud. Very nice.

[MurphDogg]

So much this.

26 years old and barely played above AA, where he was average offensively. How they expect that to translate to a productive major league player is beyond me.

Alvarez was not average offensively in AA. 2014 Eastern League, league-wide OPS was .718, with a triple slash line of .261/.327/.392. Alvarez's line was .309/.332/.487. Hell, he was above average in his 44 games in AAA where the average triple slash line in the International League was .261/.331/.393 and his was .301/.328/.439.

Yes, age is working against him, but that is what happens when you don't sign with an MLB club until you are 24. It's tough to be young for your league when you sign with a big league club when you are 3-8 years older than everyone else. Despite that, Alvarez was still two years younger than the weighted average of International League players last season and he more than held his own, in fact he was above average over 44 games.

[25 Nuggets]

2009. Toronto moves Bautista to the outfield for his age 28 season. He puts up a 99 OPS+ (.235/.349/.408) and a 2.9 rWAR in just over 400 PA thanks to his best defensive year. If Alvarez does that I'll be very happy, but my guess is he will settle in as a 1.5-2 WAR player.

[Frobby]

No, only wildcard is overrating Alvarez.

I take everything Dan and Buck say about our minor leaguers with a huge grain of salt. I don't think they expect Alvarez to make the Opening Day roster or are counting on him making a significant contribution to the major league team this year. But it's their job to encourage these guys and build fan interest in them as well. Who knows, maybe he'll continue progressing and eventually help the big club. He has at least some tools.

[MurphDogg]

Right, I just feel like if he was really that good and highly thought of, he would've started at AAA at the very least. All the top tier Cuban guys either went straight to the majors or just did a brief stint in AAA.

Well that's an issue with the Orioles development style, not an issue with Alvarez. I don't think a half-season at Bowie will hurt him necessarily. The Orioles seem to prefer having their top prospects spend more time at Bowie than Norfolk, they have said in the past that they like to see how players top prospects as opposed to AAA retreads. And he did very well (not average) in Bowie and while he was old as a prospect for the league he was still near the average age overall.