Buck: "part of developing pitching is having guys who can defend"

[Frobby]

I believe that. I also believe that guys with big arms were always better than soft tossers.

Do you say extreme things like this just to provoke me into blind rage? True or false: Scott McGregor >>> Daniel Cabrera?

[weams]

Based on what analysis? I am waiting for the day -- not far off, in my opinion -- when someone comes up with a flavor of FIP that factors in how hard the ball was hit using hit f/x data or something similar. That's going to be very educational on both sides of the FIP debate.

But that would no longer be independant. The folks who like FIP like to deal in absolutes. It's just not completely useful by itself.

[El Gordo]

A good pitcher with a 9 K/9 only has control over a third of the outs he gets? The rest is chance?

[Beef Supreme]

Fangraphs, defending FIP: ''Research has shown that pitchers have very little control on the outcome of balls in play, so while we care about how often a pitcher allows a ball to be put into play, whether a ground ball goes for a hit or is turned into an out is almost entirely out of their control.''

Reminds me of a recent Portlandia skit: ''Recent studies have shown that ancient studies have been confirmed that hot tubs can significantly increase your income.''

I think they're both ''asking some answers,'' rather than providing impartial observation.

[Can_of_corn]

A good pitcher with a 9 K/9 only has control over a third of the outs he gets? The rest is chance?

Once again no.

Why do folks not actually listen to what the stat guys say and instead install absolutes that are not there?

The only folks saying pitchers have zero influences are the guys misquoting the stat guys.

[Beef Supreme]

Once again no.

Why do folks not actually listen to what the stat guys say and instead install absolutes that are not there?

The only folks saying pitchers have zero influences are the guys misquoting the stat guys.

The absolutes are found in the formula itself.

[Can_of_corn]

The absolutes are found in the formula itself.

And no one is saying that it is 100% accurate.

Folks on the other side of the debate love to accuse folks of that but it isn't true.

[weams]

Do you say extreme things like this just to provoke me into blind rage? True or false: Scott McGregor >>> Daniel Cabrera?

Scott was far superior to Daniel. I always liked guys who could throw hard though. A big arm is like a power hitter. You always have the puncher's chance.

[El Gordo]

''Research has shown that pitchers have very little control on the outcome of balls in play, so while we care about how often a pitcher allows a ball to be put into play, whether a ground ball goes for a hit or is turned into an out is almost entirely out of their control.''

I don't think this is true. They have control over the type of ball put in play, whether it is hard hit or soft and towards a shift or away from one, e.g. Pretty sure that the BABIP for poorly hit balls is lower than average.

[Can_of_corn]

''Research has shown that pitchers have very little control on the outcome of balls in play, so while we care about how often a pitcher allows a ball to be put into play, whether a ground ball goes for a hit or is turned into an out is almost entirely out of their control.''

I don't think this is true. They have control over the type of ball put in play, whether it is hard hit or soft and towards a shift or away from one, e.g. Pretty sure that the BABIP for poorly hit balls is lower than average.

Then why wouldn't they choose for the batter to hit the ball on the ground, softly, into a shift? That way hitters would only have about a .090 wOBA.

Seems silly they are choosing to let the batter hit smoked line drives where there aren't any fielders.

[Beef Supreme]

And no one is saying that it is 100% accurate.

Folks on the other side of the debate love to accuse folks of that but it isn't true.

I'm on board with it not being 100% accurate. I'm also on board with it being of some use.

The formula speaks for itself more than any words from defenders or naysayers. If we really thought that the outcomes of batted balls were purely luck, we may as well watch some guy flip a coin for entertainment.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm on board with it not being 100% accurate. I'm also on board with it being of some use.

The formula speaks for itself more than any word from defenders or naysayers. If we really thought that the outcomes of batted balls were purely luck, we may as well watch some guy flip a coin for entertainment.

Once again no one is saying it is purely luck.

FIP is a simple formula that gives useful information. There is no need for it to try and do more then it already does.

It is a tool.

It is not 42.

No one is saying that it is 42.

[DrungoHazewood]

Once again no one is saying it is purely luck.

FIP is a simple formula that gives useful information. There is no need for it to try and do more then it already does.

It is a tool.

It is not 42.

No one is saying that it is 42.

When you start off with the conclusion and work backwards towards some evidence to support your conclusion sometimes you have to take some liberties. Like continually saying "FIP and the stats guys think pitching is all luck".

If someone wants to show me some data that suggests there are pitchers with a consistent ability to induce soft contact or significantly lower BABIP I'm all ears. But everything I've seen says the most extreme BABIP-limiting pitchers of all time cut maybe .010 or .015 points off their BABIP over a long career. Yes, there's an ability there. And that ability might mean a few tenths of a run a game in the extreme cases.

[Beef Supreme]

Once again no one is saying it is purely luck

Jonah Keri, re FIP: "Our understanding grew, to the point where we also could describe a batted ball as neither the result of pitching nor defense but rather pure luck''

[Can_of_corn]

Jonah Keri, re FIP: "Our understanding grew, to the point where we also could describe a batted ball as neither the result of pitching nor defense but rather pure luck''

And you really think he was being literal? Or are you just trying to defend a losing position?

As Drungo already stated there are stats that show that some pitchers can reliably suppress BABIP. I find it extremely hard to believe that Keri doesn't know that.