Baldelli revisited

[davearm]

I don't think i would trade Ray and Penn for all 4 of those guys.

Unbelievable.

Yet so typical.

Well the good news is that there's zero chance of that 2-for-4 deal happening anyway. Boston would be getting absolutely annihilated. Their four guys are way more valuable than the O's two.

[Sports Guy]

Unbelievable.

Yet so typical.

Well the good news is that there's zero chance of that 2-for-4 deal happening anyway. Boston would be getting absolutely annihilated. Their four guys are way more valuable than the O's two.

I know Ellsbury is a good prospect but i would prefer the pitching prospect(Penn) to him right now.

LEster is a big risk....Hansen is probably going to be a good one but guys like him aren't impossible to find.

Pena is good and i have always liked him but he has alot of difficiencies in his game.

Dave, don't get me wrong, i don't think this is a bad deal for the Orioles, just not a deal i would go after.

[CrimsonTribe]

I'm more worried about whether or not he is going to start taking walks than his injury history. A few more walks and he's an MVP candidate.

This is exactly where I stand. I'm quite worried about the injuries too though.

[davearm]

I know Ellsbury is a good prospect but i would prefer the pitching prospect(Penn) to him right now.

LEster is a big risk....Hansen is probably going to be a good one but guys like him aren't impossible to find.

Pena is good and i have always liked him but he has alot of difficiencies in his game.

Dave, don't get me wrong, i don't think this is a bad deal for the Orioles, just not a deal i would go after.

Just to get a sense of exactly how insane you are on this one, I went ahead and checked with our friend PECOTA. Here are the 5-year WARP and MORP values for these six guys.

Player: WARP, MORP

Ray: 14.6, $30.575M

Penn: 7.2, $10.375M

Total: 21.8, $40.950M

Player: WARP, MORP

Ellsbury: 22.2, $56.325M

Pena: 17.6, $39.675M

Lester: 10.3, $17.850M

Hansen: 6.6, $9.250M

Total: 56.7, $123.100M

Congratulations. Your gross overvaluing of O's talent just cost your team around 7 wins per year for the next 5 years.

[Fairfax Bird]

Congratulations. Your gross overvaluing of O's talent just cost your team around 7 wins per year for the next 5 years.

Holy crap, you mean they actually offered the deal and SG turned them down.

Not that I agree with SG, but he has some good points. Will Pena ever have more than 300 ABs in a season? Can he do what does in a limited fashion for an entire season? Will Hansen be what he has been hyped to be? Will Lester come back from cancer treatments? Is Ellsbury really the next Damon or just another in a long line of bad Red Sox position prospects?

[Sports Guy]

Just to get a sense of exactly how insane you are on this one, I went ahead and checked with our friend PECOTA. Here are the 5-year WARP and MORP values for these six guys.

Player: WARP, MORP

Ray: 14.6, $30.575M

Penn: 7.2, $10.375M

Total: 21.8, $40.950M

Player: WARP, MORP

Ellsbury: 22.2, $56.325M

Pena: 17.6, $39.675M

Lester: 10.3, $17.850M

Hansen: 6.6, $9.250M

Total: 56.7, $123.100M

Congratulations. Your gross overvaluing of O's talent just cost your team around 7 wins per year for the next 5 years.

Using WARP and MORP to determine the value of players who have barely played is a joke.

I know all about these guys and i know how they project but i would prefer Baldelli to all of them. I would prefer other guys to them as well.

You make it sound like i am saying its not a fair deal...That's not my point. I just want more established talent for Penn and Ray, that's all.

We have pitchign prospect as good or better than Lester and they don't have his risk...We just spent alot of money on the pen and have Hoey, who is probably every bit as good as Hansen, so Hansen is not a team need.

Pena would be a nice addition but can he stay healthy?

[far from home]

This whole thing is being blown out of proportion.

1. Baldelli has yet to do anything to be worth 2 superstar caliber prospects. I'm not saying he's not a good player, but Ray in one season has done waay more than Baldelli has done (comparable to position) to this point. If the Rays were so convinced that he was worth what they are asking for, he wouldn't be on the trading block. He's a very good player that has yet to achieve the full potential that he's been hyped to. I mean, The Angels were only offering Santana (who's only had one good season), and Aybar (who may be a good player, but know one knows yet) for Tejada, who is a former MVP and a bonafide superstar.

2. When the O's originally inquired, they wanted Bedard...which would be ridiculous to trade. The same for Loewen, or Cabrera. Having the three of those guys on a staff, with the way it looks like they're coming together, would probably put this team over .500 alone, much less be an outstanding foundation for true contention next year and for years to come.

This group of pitchers the O's have is the best group I've seen since the last time they've contended...and one of the better ones talent-wise I've seen in a while since the A's.

To trade that away for a guy that hasn't even been able to stay in the lineup would be Glenn Davis-esque.

[Crazysilver03]

Using WARP and MORP to determine the value of players who have barely played is a joke.

I know all about these guys and i know how they project but i would prefer Baldelli to all of them. I would prefer other guys to them as well.

You make it sound like i am saying its not a fair deal...That's not my point. I just want more established talent for Penn and Ray, that's all.

We have pitchign prospect as good or better than Lester and they don't have his risk...We just spent alot of money on the pen and have Hoey, who is probably every bit as good as Hansen, so Hansen is not a team need.

Pena would be a nice addition but can he stay healthy?

You want more established talent for Penn and Ray?? Penn isnt established so I dont really see your argument there.

Hoey or Baez replaces Ray at closer, so we are okay there. Hansen adds a good bullpen arm.

Lester is more "proven" then Penn.

Ellisbury and Pena would be good additions. Ellisbury would be ready in a year or two and could be used as the CFer, in leui of Patterson.

Getting a relief pitcher, starting pitcher, center fielder, and OF/DH for a closer and starting pitcher would be a good deal.

[Lucky Jim]

Well, the Penn PECOTA is obviously painfully low - it's projecting him at 26 with a 5+ ERA and a WARP of 1.3. Rodrigo Lopez had a WARP of 5+ last year. So, if we actually believe that Penn will be no better than R-Lo, he'll have a WARP of at least 25.

Ellsbury is a good prospect. I'm not as sold as, say, Sickels (low power, good contact guy.)

Lester is coming off a battle with lymphoma.

Pena is high-risk high reward - pretty known quantity with miserable defense.

Hansen is a reliever with eye-popping numbers but small samples and a very good but not spectacular K-rate.

I'm with SG. I wouldn't budge on that trade either - though I don't think that there wouldn't be value coming back in return. It comes down to how we assess risk. We obviously don't like the risk inherent in Lester. Hansen and Pena are role-players at this point. That leaves Ellsbury...who could be very good. But I'm still in the group that think Penn is going to be very very good as well.

[Sports Guy]

You want more established talent for Penn and Ray?? Penn isnt established so I dont really see your argument there.

Hoey or Baez replaces Ray at closer, so we are okay there. Hansen adds a good bullpen arm.

Lester is more "proven" then Penn.

Ellisbury and Pena would be good additions. Ellisbury would be ready in a year or two and could be used as the CFer, in leui of Patterson.

Getting a relief pitcher, starting pitcher, center fielder, and OF/DH for a closer and starting pitcher would be a good deal.

Never said it wasn't...Try reading.

And want does Penn not being established yet have to do with anything? If i am trading him, i want an established young player. THat player is not in this deal(same with Ray)

[Crazysilver03]

Never said it wasn't...Try reading.

And want does Penn not being established yet have to do with anything? If i am trading him, i want an established young player. THat player is not in this deal(same with Ray)

Can YOU read?

I stated I thought it would be a good trade, no need to get all ballsy about it.

And what, are you in that .01% that can't infer? You want to trade Penn for an established major leaguer, even though Penn himself isnt established.

Why should other teams want to trade non established players for established players. Yes I know it happens so no need for you to throw a fit when you respond.

Lester, Hansen, Pena, Ellisbury>>>>>Baldelli

[Lucky Jim]

Lester, Hansen, Pena, Ellisbury>>>>>Baldelli

For the record, I don't trade for Baldelli, either.

[geschinger]

Well, the Penn PECOTA is obviously painfully low - it's projecting him at 26 with a 5+ ERA and a WARP of 1.3. Rodrigo Lopez had a WARP of 5+ last year. So, if we actually believe that Penn will be no better than R-Lo, he'll have a WARP of at least 25.

Ellsbury is a good prospect. I'm not as sold as, say, Sickels (low power, good contact guy.)

Lester is coming off a battle with lymphoma.

Pena is high-risk high reward - pretty known quantity with miserable defense.

Hansen is a reliever with eye-popping numbers but small samples and a very good but not spectacular K-rate.

I'm with SG. I wouldn't budge on that trade either - though I don't think that there wouldn't be value coming back in return. It comes down to how we assess risk. We obviously don't like the risk inherent in Lester. Hansen and Pena are role-players at this point. That leaves Ellsbury...who could be very good. But I'm still in the group that think Penn is going to be very very good as well.

I wouldn't hesitate to do that 4 for 2 trade although it's ridiculous to even speculate as Boston's FO is not incompetent. Yes there is risk with those Boston players but is there is no less risk w/Hayden Penn. Lester has the ability to be as good or better than Penn. It's basically a wash between the two and with Lester's prognosis I don't see his health being any more of an issue than Penn's head/confidence.

Ray is a solid closer but Hansen has the potential to be just as good. Ray benefited from time to develop in the minors while Hansen has been rushed. Would it really suprise anyone if he develops into a solid closer w/his stuff? Ellsbury would be waiting in the wings to take Patterson's slot and be a solid leadoff guy for the next half dozen years at a great price and Pena even if he only got 300 ABs a year would make this team better.

It seems to me that sometimes that when it comes to risk assesment we all undersetimate the risk w/O's prospects and overestimate the risk w/other team's prospects. When it comes to risk management, I'd take the 4 guys with the upside (and risk) over the two guys with the upside (and in Penn's case, the risk).

[Lucky Jim]

That was my point. It's about perspective. But that doesn't defeat my point.

You can say what you want about Lester's prognosis - but I wouldn't write the risk off so easily.

So, let's recap:

1. It wouldn't be a bad deal.

2. Boston won't offer it.

3. I wouldn't accept it.

4. It won't happen regardless.

It's not so difficult. I can see the O's getting burnt in the deal. You see great potential. These aren't mutually exclusive.

[geschinger]

That was my point. It's about perspective. But that doesn't defeat my point.

You can say what you want about Lester's prognosis - but I wouldn't write the risk off so easily.

So, let's recap:

1. It wouldn't be a bad deal.

2. Boston won't offer it.

3. I wouldn't accept it.

4. It won't happen regardless.

It's not so difficult. I can see the O's getting burnt in the deal. You see great potential. These aren't mutually exclusive.

I would change 1. to it would be a ridiculously good deal but agree with the rest of the points. Sure the O's could get burnt but I'd say that if we look back five years from now, the odds are heavily in the favor those 4 Red Sox players outproducing and being more valuable than Penn and Ray.

And about Penn... While I'm still very high on him I can't say that I'm not worried about long term effects of the disaster that was his 6 starts last year. I'm not willing to write that risk off so easily. They need to pick their spot when he gets his next ML starts... If he gets rocked in his first couple of starts this season things could get really tough for him.