Baldelli revisited

[nadecir]

Not a bad idea buddy, but I'm satisfied as long as we can go back and dig up these threads in one or two years. LOL Even if I look bad.

The big disadvantage, of course, is the work to find everyone's predictions in the threads. I'm sure you'd go through the work to find your predictions even if they were bad. And of course no one would ever say "Don't you remember, I wanted to make that trade in the offseason", without really posting it, right?

I'd like to know who the true Orioles' Nostradamus is at the end of this year.

[wildcard]

And you think if we traded Penn, we'd have a hard time getting a 5.25 ERA from Guthrie, Burres, or Bell?

What makes Olson a finesse pitcher and Penn not a finesse pitcher, a few mph? They both have 3 pitches and need good command of at least two to succeed. I don't think there's a big difference between what types of pitchers they are, although I concede that Penn is further along in development.

Penn is a long term pitcher for the O's in my view. 5.25 in 2007, 4.50 in 2008. under 4.00 in 2009. Do I think Guthrie, Burres or Bell project like that. No I don't. Why? Guthrie has shown a difficult time in adjusting at higher levels. So he does not project to be the pitcher that Penn can be. Burres and Bell do not have Penn's ceiling.

A lively fastball is a great thing to have in a pitcher's arsenal. I think Penn's is significantly better than Olson's. I also think Penn is ready now. Olson needs a year at AAA.

[wildcard]

And I say, that if Penn projects to be a 4th starter, you don't hold onto him like he's hard to replace. You hold onto guys who project as #1 and #2 starters. There will be more guys in the system who can become #4 starters. Now saying that, I'm not conceding that that's Penn's ceiling. If the cost of a possible impact player (do you think that's Baldelli's ceiling?) is a #4 starter and a good closer, I gotta do it.

This is the fun point about Penn. There are #4's and then there are #4's. In Penn's case he projects as a #4 because Bedard, Cabrera and Loewen all are better and have more experienced then he does, not because he deserves the title of #4.

Pat Dobson was the #4 in 1971 when the O's had 4 twenty game wins. Having Palmer, McNally and Cuellar will make most anyone a #4. There are #4's and then there are #4's.

[Frobby]

Penn is a long term pitcher for the O's in my view. 5.25 in 2007, 4.50 in 2008. under 4.00 in 2009. Do I think Guthrie, Burres or Bell project like that. No I don't. Why? Guthrie has shown a difficult time in adjusting at higher levels. So he does not project to be the pitcher that Penn can be. Burres and Bell do not have Penn's ceiling.

A lively fastball is a great thing to have in a pitcher's arsenal. I think Penn's is significantly better than Olson's. I also think Penn is ready now. Olson needs a year at AAA.

Looks like both will start the year at AAA, and we'll see how both perform. Penn and Olson are different style of pitchers. I have high hopes for both of them. I think they will both get 50+ innings in the majors this year when all is said and done. In Penn's case, maybe closer to 100 innings.

Penn will pitch on Wednesday and I hope he has a stellar outing that will wipe away some of the negative vibes from his poor showing last September. There's no question in my mind that the kid will eventually be a solid major league starter. The only question is how soon. He's much better than he showed last September.

[wildcard]

It's kind of funny to me that there use to be discussions about trading Bedard or Cabrera or Loewen and I always said no, these guys are our backbone. They will make the difference for us. Now people don't want to trade them so much.

Now I have to justify why not to trade Penn. Same discussion. Same answer. And in a year, people will stop suggesting it. Patience is a viture.

[Frobby]

It's kind of funny to me that there use to be discussions about trading Bedard or Cabrera or Loewen and I always said no, these guys are our backbone. They will make the difference for us. Now people don't want to trade them so much.

Now I have to justify why not to trade Penn. Same discussion. Same answer. And in a year, people will stop suggesting it. Patience is a viture.

You were hardly alone in suggesting that we hold on to our young pitchers. I'd say that has been the majority view around here, for the most part. And rightly so.

But at the same time, you have to acknowledge that the team has lots of promising young pitchers and is woefully short on the young offensive talent. And so if you can trade your 4th-best young pitcher for a center fielder who is locked up for several years, you have to at least look at it.

[Leitch]

You were hardly alone in suggesting that we hold on to our young pitchers. I'd say that has been the majority view around here, for the most part. And rightly so.

But at the same time, you have to acknowledge that the team has lots of promising young pitchers and is woefully short on the young offensive talent. And so if you can trade your 4th-best young pitcher for a center fielder who is locked up for several years, you have to at least look at it.

It still depends on what you think Penn will be vs. What you think Baldelli would be. I would assume that having a 4th starter significantly better than that of most teams would net you a big advantage, but so would a game changer in CF. Do you think Baldelli will be that guy? Do you think Penn will be that guy?

[Frobby]

It still depends on what you think Penn will be vs. What you think Baldelli would be. I would assume that having a 4th starter significantly better than that of most teams would net you a big advantage, but so would a game changer in CF. Do you think Baldelli will be that guy? Do you think Penn will be that guy?

The picture on Baldelli is much clearer than the picture on Penn. If he's healthy, Baldelli is going to be at least average offensively for a CF, and potentially much better than that. And defensively he'll be solid, though not a gold glove candidate.

Penn could be anything from a very solid no. 3 to a very shaky no. 5. Put a gun to my head and I'll peg him as having a Kris Benson-type career.

Even up, I'd take Baldelli over Penn. But if I don't think I'd give up both Penn and Ray for him.

[geschinger]

It's kind of funny to me that there use to be discussions about trading Bedard or Cabrera or Loewen and I always said no, these guys are our backbone. They will make the difference for us. Now people don't want to trade them so much.

Now I have to justify why not to trade Penn. Same discussion. Same answer. And in a year, people will stop suggesting it. Patience is a viture.

I've always and continue to want to hold onto young pitching as nothing is more important when trying to compete with teams that have payrolls tens to even more than one hundred million more than the O's payroll. However if you have the opportunity to acquire a 25 year old OF with superstar potential you have to at least think twice about it. Especially with Penn who IMO doesn't have quite as high of a ceiling as Bedard, Cabrera and Loewen have.

[wildcard]

You were hardly alone in suggesting that we hold on to our young pitchers. I'd say that has been the majority view around here, for the most part. And rightly so.

But at the same time, you have to acknowledge that the team has lots of promising young pitchers and is woefully short on the young offensive talent. And so if you can trade your 4th-best young pitcher for a center fielder who is locked up for several years, you have to at least look at it.

Alone, heck no I was not alone. But the subject keeps come up and I keep trying to knock it down. Sometimes I am in the majority and some times not.

Trading Penn is not smart unless he is being traded for better pitching. How can the O's have short term pitchers like Wright and Trachsel in the rotation and people be talking about trading Penn. It's way beyond me.

Pitchers get hurt all the time. I'd like to have 6th starter that are quality. Right now they have three. The O's can get offensive in the FA market. Hernandez, Miggy, and Huff where all FA's. Its darn near impossible to get a Bedard, Cabrera, Loewen or Penn on the FA market. There either not there or they are not coming to Baltimore.

Give me a team of very good pitchers, good defense and average offense and the O's will beat the Yankees and Red Sox. Pitching Rules.

[geschinger]

Trading Penn is not smart unless he is being traded for better pitching. How can the O's have short term pitchers like Wright and Trachsel in the rotation and people be talking about trading Penn. It's way beyond me.

It's not about trading him just to trade him... If there is an established player available who has a ceiling as high as Baldelli who has his peak years still ahead of him one would have to consider it. Penn and Ray... I would do it but understand the argument that it's too much. Now if by some miracle beyond comprehension Tampa Bay came to us and said Penn for Baldelli straight up we'd be nuts not to pull the trigger as fast as humanly possible.

[wildcard]

The picture on Baldelli is much clearer than the picture on Penn. If he's healthy, Baldelli is going to be at least average offensively for a CF, and potentially much better than that. And defensively he'll be solid, though not a gold glove candidate.

Penn could be anything from a very solid no. 3 to a very shaky no. 5. Put a gun to my head and I'll peg him as having a Kris Benson-type career.

Even up, I'd take Baldelli over Penn. But if I don't think I'd give up both Penn and Ray for him.

A huge question mark.

[wildcard]

Is there no offensive player that you would trade Penn & Ray for? I'm just trying to find out if you have a line drawn somewhere. Also, calling someone a #4 type starter usually denotes a certain level of ability and performance. I wouldn't call someone a #4 type starter just because he was the 4th best starter on his team just the same as I wouldn't have called Rodrigo Lopez a #1 starter when he was our best. So again, what do you think Penn will become?

Also, two points I haven't seen you address. What do you think Baldelli's ceiling is? And what did you think of the O's trying to trade Roberts & Penn for LaRoche and Giles?

I think in three years Penn will be equal to Bedard, Cabrera and Loewen. A 15 game winner with an ERA under 4.00. I base that projection on his minor league stats, his age, his arm strength and what has been said about the movement of his stuff.

I am leary of Baldelli injury history. The colors his future potential. For the most part I was against trading Penn and Roberts. There was a time right after it was announced that discussion were happening that I thought it made some sense, but after thinking about it the O's have no replacement for Roberts and Penn is going to give someone six very good years of pitching.