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Sabermetrics, My Take

brianod

By brianod
in Orioles Talk

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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My problem with saber-metrics and the people who use stats as the primary basis of their argument is that not all stats are quantifiable. Stats should be used as a barometer instead of as a definitive answer. It is obnoxious when "stat guys" are smug and talk down to the other person.

And it's obnoxious when non stat guys blithely ignore evidence and insult the other posters.

Btw I am pretty sure you can quantify all the statistics.

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Phantom Major Leaguer

Phantom

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Here is a good (or at least fun) use of sabermetrics, from our very own team. Ubaldo is obviously a lot better this year than last. Is this a breakout, luck, or something in between?

FiP and xFip, when compared to ERA, are usually fairly easy ways to spot luck, or at least a regression candidate. Ubaldo's are right in line his ERA this season, so maybe we have a true breakout?

2015 is Ubaldo's career best Str%. That?s the good news. And on the surface, his strikeout rate is up, as are his ground balls. But his swinging strike rate sits at a career low and his strikeouts are currently boosted by a career high looking strike rate, which is at a level that won?t be sustained. It?s true some of those looking strikes may become swinging strikes, but some of them will also be put in play, eliminating the possibility for a strikeout.

So, while I think a lot of Ubaldo's gains are here to stay (well, for 2015 at least) I expect his K rate to drop, and his ERA+Fip to rise a bit.

Am I right? We'll see.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Posted
My problem with saber-metrics and the people who use stats as the primary basis of their argument is that not all stats are quantifiable. Stats should be used as a barometer instead of as a definitive answer. It is obnoxious when "stat guys" are smug and talk down to the other person.

You sound more pleasant when you're with your Hermits...

<iframe width="480" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YRvcIj3XzU8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

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Herman Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Herman

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And it's obnoxious when non stat guys blithely ignore evidence and insult the other posters.

Btw I am pretty sure you can quantify all the statistics.

No you can't. Baseball is a sport not a math equation. Things like momentum, team unity, chemistry, etc are not statistically measurable. Sports are in the moment and are constantly changing and sometimes it's better not to use feel, instinct and your own two eyes instead of a formula.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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No you can't. Baseball is a sport not a math equation. Things like momentum, team unity, chemistry, etc are not statistically measurable. Sports are in the moment and are constantly changing and sometimes it's better not to use feel, instinct and your own two eyes instead of a formula.

Like ignoring production because you feel the strikeouts are too high for example.

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Crazysilver03 Hangout Grand Counsel

Crazysilver03

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No you can't. Baseball is a sport not a math equation. Things like momentum, team unity, chemistry, etc are not statistically measurable. Sports are in the moment and are constantly changing and sometimes it's better not to use feel, instinct and your own two eyes instead of a formula.

Those aren't stats though. So what is your point.

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Crazysilver03 Hangout Grand Counsel

Crazysilver03

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My problem with saber-metrics and the people who use stats as the primary basis of their argument is that not all stats are quantifiable. Stats should be used as a barometer instead of as a definitive answer. It is obnoxious when "stat guys" are smug and talk down to the other person.
And it's obnoxious when non stat guys blithely ignore evidence and insult the other posters.

Btw I am pretty sure you can quantify all the statistics.

No you can't. Baseball is a sport not a math equation. Things like momentum, team unity, chemistry, etc are not statistically measurable. Sports are in the moment and are constantly changing and sometimes it's better not to use feel, instinct and your own two eyes instead of a formula.

Are you sure you aren't missing the point? All stats are quantifiable, which is why they are stats. You are wrong in what you said. Are there intangibles, sure.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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No you can't. Baseball is a sport not a math equation. Things like momentum, team unity, chemistry, etc are not statistically measurable. Sports are in the moment and are constantly changing and sometimes it's better not to use feel, instinct and your own two eyes instead of a formula.

Things like momentum, team unity and chemistry are not stats.

You said not all stats are quantifiable.

Did you perhaps mean all variables?

"All variables that influence a baseball game are not quantifiable."

That has a nice ring to it.

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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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Posted
Things like momentum, team unity and chemistry are not stats.

You said not all stats are quantifiable.

Did you perhaps mean all variables?

"All variables that influence a baseball game are not quantifiable."

That has a nice ring to it.

Reading comprehension is useful.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Isn't that the truth. I still believe baseball is the most cerebral of the major sports, but I played with lots of guys that weren't ... um ... deep thinkers shall we say. ;)

One of my favorite baseball quotes was when Hank Aaron, as a young player, came up to bat with the label of the bat facing the wrong way.

Catcher: "Hey, you're supposed to be able to read the label."

Aaron: "I didn't come up here to read."

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Herman Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Herman

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Posted
Things like momentum, team unity and chemistry are not stats.

You said not all stats are quantifiable.

Did you perhaps mean all variables?

"All variables that influence a baseball game are not quantifiable."

That has a nice ring to it.

You're right. I didn't word my post properly but you translated for me lol.

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