Sabermetrics, My Take

[CA-ORIOLE]

My assumption is that most if not all MLB organizations have concluded that a tightly integrated scouting/analysis construct is a large competitive advantage. Or rather, not having one is a big disadvantage since almost everyone has one.

I don't see how you could have a competitive team in today's environment without a robust system that integrates both.

I'd be shocked if there was any organization left out there that didn't believe this. How individual organizational tactics and philosophies vary is another story I guess.

[Stotle]

I actually think you're completely off base with this and that this is probably more of an impression you've gained on here. Not saying there still aren't competing interests and friction, and every organization is different, but i see the two merging if anything. Then again, I don't claim to know anything, just my impression from reading stuff online.

Maybe stotle or Tony could chime in from the scouting side and provide a perspective..

In runs the gamut, but generally you don't see horns being butted at the FO level (a couple of orgs maybe still have vocal contingents that *****). There are still field level scout types that roll their eyes but most have simply accepted analytics as a part of the game (e.g. (paraphrasing) "We have some guy that emails a list of players in my area I now have to see because the analytics and stat stuff says he's someone our SD or ASD might have to see -- I've seen him for three years and he's dog ****, but I'll go see him again because that's how this works.").

I hear/see more friction between scouting and development than I do scouting/analytics. Keep in mind, with some exceptions (in particular orgs that are constantly disseminating analytic data to some of the field level staff and have field level staff collecting data), the analytics and scouting departments don't see tons of overlap except at the decision-making level, which tends to be a relatively small circle. Again, there are still vocal contingents that are dug in, but most realize this is gig in today's game.

[Stotle]

I think we agree that both sides need to work together but disagree that there is always harmony. I think that conflict within an organization is inevitable and the management of that conflict is an important part is successful organizations. There is just too much difference of perspective to ignore the natural conflict imo.

Who specifically do you see as getting into these conflicts? Who in the scouting department/analytics department are having dust-ups with each other?

[SteveA]

I think the "conflict" between the two approaches mostly exists in places like this where fans are discussing baseball, and far less among professionals.

In a fan forum, some percentage of supporters of either school of thought go out of their way to insult the other side ("eggheads who never played the game" or "idiots who value outdated stats and think the will to win is more important than ability".

That type of sniping provably doesn't take place in a professional environment, even if some folks harbor such feelings, and the people that make decisions probably have enough sense to value both types of input.

[Stotle]

It can swing too far if you think all human behavior can be measured in formulas. Objective truth is in the eyes of the beholder.

Outside of data measurement (pop, ttp, h-1st, etc.), scouting and the "eye test" is by definition subjective and not objective, right?

[brianod]

Outside of data measurement (pop, ttp, h-1st, etc.), scouting and the "eye test" is by definition subjective and not objective, right?

"We should draft this guy, he's 6" 3", 220 and when he runs into one, it goes a mile". "But, he's never been able to draw a walk to save his life". "I'm a major league hitting coach, I can teach him how to be selective". "The stats tell me, he'll never amount to much". "Trust me, I can mold him".

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think we agree that both sides need to work together but disagree that there is always harmony. I think that conflict within an organization is inevitable and the management of that conflict is an important part is successful organizations. There is just too much difference of perspective to ignore the natural conflict imo.

Did I imply that every organization is in harmony? is there any organization that is in harmony?

There is always conflict and competing interests in any organization. When Duquette came in he pissed off some scouts almost immediately. The key is to make them work together and optimize the organizations goals and vision, which is the same thing that you've already said, so we don't really disagree on that.

Seems to be a difference about where the line is and what the current state of conflict is in the organizations themselves. Not knowing a damn thing, I suspect it's a much better state than the conflict on here and other places on the interweb.

[brianod]

"We should draft this guy, he's 6" 3", 220 and when he runs into one, it goes a mile". "But, he's never been able to draw a walk to save his life". "I'm a major league hitting coach, I can teach him how to be selective". "The stats tell me, he'll never amount to much". "Trust me, I can mold him".

I suspect this conversation goes on all the time and I suspect the best gms make the right decision about 60% of the time:)

[CA-ORIOLE]

In runs the gamut, but generally you don't see horns being butted at the FO level (a couple of orgs maybe still have vocal contingents that *****). There are still field level scout types that roll their eyes but most have simply accepted analytics as a part of the game (e.g. (paraphrasing) "We have some guy that emails a list of players in my area I now have to see because the analytics and stat stuff says he's someone our SD or ASD might have to see -- I've seen him for three years and he's dog ****, but I'll go see him again because that's how this works.").

I hear/see more friction between scouting and development than I do scouting/analytics. Keep in mind, with some exceptions (in particular orgs that are constantly disseminating analytic data to some of the field level staff and have field level staff collecting data), the analytics and scouting departments don't see tons of overlap except at the decision-making level, which tends to be a relatively small circle. Again, there are still vocal contingents that are dug in, but most realize this is gig in today's game.

Thanks for the input stotle.

[Stotle]

"We should draft this guy, he's 6" 3", 220 and when he runs into one, it goes a mile". "But, he's never been able to draw a walk to save his life". "I'm a major league hitting coach, I can teach him how to be selective". "The stats tell me, he'll never amount to much". "Trust me, I can mold him".

Yeah, that conversation isn't happening.

[brianod]

Did I imply that every organization is in harmony? is there any organization that is in harmony?

There is always conflict and competing interests in any organization. When Duquette came in he pissed off some scouts almost immediately. The key is to make them work together and optimize the organization abilities and vision, which i the same thing that you've already said, so we don't really disagree on that.

Seems to be a difference about where the line is and what the current state of conflict is in the organizations themsleves. Not knowing a damn thing, I suspect it's a much better state than the conflict on here and other places on the interweb.

Sabermetrics don't measure young, developing players as well as they do retired or developed players. Young players develop at different rates, passed statistics mean much less in measuring their future. Much like real life, the older a person is, the more predicable they become.

[brianod]

Yeah, that conversation isn't happening.

Forgive me for not taking your word for it.

[Stotle]

Forgive me for not taking your word for it.

Who do you think is having that conversation with the major league hitting coach? Why is a major league hitting coach discussing a draft target? During what part of the decision making process do you see this conversation taking place?

No offense intended, but this reads like a convo pulled from a movie written by someone who doesn't have any knowledge as to what actually goes into deciding upon which players to target in the draft.

[Crazysilver03]

Forgive me for not taking your word for it.

Hah. So you ignore the word of someone that actually works with a FO? Are you ignoring it because it goes against what you want to believe?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Sabermetrics don't measure young, developing players as well as they do retired or developed players. Young players develop at different rates, passed statistics mean much less in measuring their future. Much like real life, the older a person is, the more predicable they become.

Of course not, but they can still be complementary, even in that case. Also consider that more unconventional statistical data, tools and models are probably being utilized much ore at this level much than they were were 10-15 years ago. That would be my guess at least, but I guess stotle could answer that.