HHP: The Misadventures Of A Staff Ace

[Il BuonO]

For the record, the Vegas books had the Rays as a small (-120) favorite yesterday. That means at bet on the Rays you would bet $120 to win $100, so to make money on the bet, the Rays would have to win 54.5% of the time. The O's were at +110, whiich means you would bet $100 on the O's and win $110 if they won. To make money on that, the O's would have to win 47.6% of the time.

So basically the expectation based on the line set by the Vegas books (which is set to get equal betting on both sides so it is in effect a reflection of the betting public's opinion) is that the Rays should win yesterday's game around 53% of the time.

As things move along in the season I'll bet on the Orioles and Tillman. I like his odds of improving. I'm not impressed with Odorizzi although we didn't do as much damage as we should have save Mr. Wonderful.

[Redskins Rick]

This is the crux of the matter. And it SHOULd be something he can correct.

Which also, elevated pitches, has nothing to do with the catcher behind the plate.

[Il BuonO]

This is the crux of the matter. And it SHOULd be something he can correct.

This oversimplifies the situation. Tillman pitches effectively up in the zone quite a bit. He did it yesterday with success on more than one of his strike outs if you watched closely. He gets into trouble when he is behind and throws his FB center cut as he did with Sosa or Souza, however Gary is pronouncing it today.

Yes, he has to pitch down in the zone but not exclusively.

[Redskins Rick]

This oversimplifies the situation. Tillman pitches effectively up in the zone quite a bit. He did it yesterday with success on more than one of his strike outs if you watched closely. He gets into trouble when he is behind and throws his FB center cut as he did with Sosa or Souza, however Gary is pronouncing it today.

Yes, he has to pitch down in the zone but not exclusively.

Agreed, right now the hitters have the advantage they are clued in, that for the most part, the pitches are coming in high.

[Three Run Homer]

This oversimplifies the situation. Tillman pitches effectively up in the zone quite a bit. He did it yesterday with success on more than one of his strike outs if you watched closely. He gets into trouble when he is behind and throws his FB center cut as he did with Sosa or Souza, however Gary is pronouncing it today.

Yes, he has to pitch down in the zone but not exclusively.

Exactly--a high fastball exploding out of the top of the strike zone can be a very effective swing and miss pitch, and Tillman gets plenty of batters to chase that pitch.

He just has to avoid serving up batting practice meatballs like the pitch he threw to Souza.

[Can_of_corn]

Exactly--a high fastball exploding out of the top of the strike zone can be a very effective swing and miss pitch, and Tillman gets plenty of batters to chase that pitch.

He just has to avoid serving up batting practice meatballs like the pitch he threw to Souza.

I haven't seen much exploding out of Tillman's fastball this year.

[Going Underground]

The game against the Rays.Tillman looked like he was pitching around Franklin,a .079 hitter to get to Wilson. I know Wilson is only a .180 hitter and I guess righty against righty. I think you would be a little more aggressive against Franklin. Wilson got the hit down the right field line and drove in a run. I also noticed the Rays hit a lot of balls down the right field line and Delmon was shading over towards center. Not sure if the Rays were trying to hit it down the line or Tillman was pitching against how the defense was set up.

[Il BuonO]

I haven't seen much exploding out of Tillman's fastball this year.

He regularly hit 94 mph on the gun yesterday.

[Il BuonO]

The game against the Rays.Tillman looked like he was pitching around Franklin,a .079 hitter to get to Wilson. I know Wilson is only a .180 hitter and I guess righty against righty. I think you would be a little more aggressive against Franklin. Wilson got the hit down the right field line and drove in a run. I also noticed the Rays hit a lot of balls down the right field line and Delmon was shading over towards center. Not sure if the Rays were trying to hit it down the line or Tillman was pitching against how the defense was set up.

No, his problem is command, has been all year.

[Can_of_corn]

He regularly hit 94 mph on the gun yesterday.

Yep and the start before he was 91. From what I have seen it has been a lot more 91 then 94.

Even at 94 he isn't getting that "hop" a good high fastball gets.

[Il BuonO]

Yep and the start before he was 91. From what I have seen it has been a lot more 91 then 94.

Even at 94 he isn't getting that "hop" a good high fastball gets.

Agreed, the velocity has been inconsistent from game to game but yesterday was more typical of what he can do in that respect.

Started out 91-92 and was regularly 93 throughout sometimes at 94 mph. We've seen him progressively get stronger before so I think it may be mechanical that he isn't getting there every game, but it could be as simple as not being completely focused.

Whatever the the case he knows he isn't getting it done but I never get the feeling he's that far away either. One of the things I've always liked about him is his ability for self-evaluation. He doesn't sugarcoat his bad results.

[Going Underground]

He regularly hit 94 mph on the gun yesterday.

Not sure if he hit 94 throughout the game. I did notice when he struck out the four guys in a row,the speed and pitch track was showng 94 and even once 95 ..

[Redskins Rick]

I haven't seen much exploding out of Tillman's fastball this year.

Unless you count the ball exploding off the batter's bat!

[Frobby]

Not sure if he hit 94 throughout the game. I did notice when he struck out the four guys in a row,the speed and pitch track was showng 94 and even once 95 ..

According to pitch f/x, Tillman's fastball averaged 94.6 and topped out at 97.1. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=5&day=31&year=2015&game=gid_2015_05_31_tbamlb_balmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=501957&prevGame=gid_2015_05_31_tbamlb_balmlb_1%2F&prevDate=531&league=mlb

I only saw the 4th and 5th innings, but I thought Tillman had plenty of heat. The pitch he threw to Souza was in a horrible location.

[Aristotelian]

The game against the Rays.Tillman looked like he was pitching around Franklin,a .079 hitter to get to Wilson. I know Wilson is only a .180 hitter and I guess righty against righty. I think you would be a little more aggressive against Franklin. Wilson got the hit down the right field line and drove in a run. I also noticed the Rays hit a lot of balls down the right field line and Delmon was shading over towards center. Not sure if the Rays were trying to hit it down the line or Tillman was pitching against how the defense was set up.

Delmon seems to let drop a lot of those bloopers to right. Not sure if it is just coincidence or if it is a "thing" with him. Although he really never had a chance at the ball hit by Wilson. It was just hit in a perfect spot.