So...who plays 1st base in 2016?

[DrungoHazewood]

Another name to throw into the mix is Brandon Snyder. Could be a one year fill in while Mancini develops. I am not sure I would count on him to outperform but so far in his return to the O's organization he has hit well at Bowie and he does have MLB experience. Downside is his age vs Walker and Mancini.

I'd say Snyder's primary downside is the fact that, outside of AA Ball, he's never really hit like a major league first baseman.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Yes, he is a better athlete but when did being strictly a good athlete equate to hitting skills? Lough is a damn good athlete but he is a below average hitter.

I think his skill set screams significant regression.

Regression to what? His career averages of .253/.323/.496?

[BohKnowsBmore]

That would be nice, though I'd want the team to invest in one more pitcher. The lineup wouldn't have to change much from what it is now:

1) R Machado (3B)

2) L Parra (LF)

3) R Jones (CF)

4) L Davis (1B/RF)

5) R Schoop (2B)

6) S Paredes (DH)

7) R Hardy (SS)

8) R Joseph ©

9) R Alvarez (RF) or Mancini (1B)

The top six in that lineup could be formidable. Depends on Parra and Paredes making things happen from the left side.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but a guy like Heyward or Upton could look awesome in that 5 spot.

[DrungoHazewood]

Regression to what? His career averages of .253/.323/.496?

The issue with Davis is what really is his baseline? How do you project what he's going to do? He's had five MLB seasons with 100+ games. And in those five years he's been worth (in fWAR) -0.6, 2.1, 7.1, 0.8, and is on pace for something like 4.0 this year. He also had a few partial years sprinkled in where he was worth between 0.8 and -0.7 wins. Normally you'd eyeball a guy's level and say, well he's a 2-4 win player and he'll decline half a win a year so he's worth XYZ. It's not so easy with Davis. Literally six months ago half the board thought he was done, you couldn't even trade him because he was so bad last year and coming off a PED suspension. Unfortunately, with situations like this there's usually some team willing to assume that he's settled in at 4 wins a year and will pay accordingly.

[oriole]

Regression to what? His career averages of .253/.323/.496?

My guess would be a couple seasons around that line and then plummet. Just a hunch. I won't be one of the board members crying about it when he signs elsewhere for 6/120 that's for sure

[weams]

My guess would be a couple seasons around that line and then plummet. Just a hunch. I won't be one of the board members crying about it when he signs elsewhere for 6/120 that's for sure

He would have to be worth 4 WAR every year for that to be a "good" deal.

[El Gordo]

He would have to be worth 4 WAR every year for that to be a "good" deal.

4 x 6 = 24 x 6M = 144M , so has 1 WAR come down in value? I thought it was around 6M maybe as high as 7M.

[srock]

Walker's career AAA line is about .260/.325/.420. An average MLB first baseman hits .258/.333/.427. Walker would be slightly worse than an average 1B if he showed zero decline upon transitioning from AAA to the majors. More likely he'll lose 50 or 75 points of OPS, putting him on par with Joe Mauer, Mike Napoli and Mark Reynolds, all of whom are hovering around replacement level. Walker would be a disappointing replacement for Davis.

I agree with all that.

About on par with Make Napoli. At a tiny price tag. The low price gets him a crack at the job.

His MiL performance means Duquette will have a myriad of AAAA backup plans ready to give it a try.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 x 6 = 24 x 6M = 144M , so has 1 WAR come down in value? I thought it was around 6M maybe as high as 7M.

I think the rule of thumb is about 7 now. I have reservations as I outlined a few posts ago, but I'd put Davis' value at something like 4 + 3.5 + 3 + 2.5 + 2 = 15, times $7M = $105M. But someone will be more optimistic, and someone will factor in inflation, and I think he gets 5/120.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree with all that.

About on par with Make Napoli. At a tiny price tag. The low price gets him a crack at the job.

His MiL performance means Duquette will have a myriad of AAAA backup plans ready to give it a try.

Yea, but Napoli is a big disappointment, and one of the reasons the Red Sox collapsed. I don't think there's any way to platoon or spot a .700 OPS first baseman with okay defense that pushes you into contention. If they go into 2016 with Walker as Plan A at first base I have to hope/assume they've made significant upgrades elsewhere. You'd have to assume that's losing four wins compared to '15 Davis, and 2-4 wins compared to what I'd expect out of '16 Davis.

[oriole]

He would have to be worth 4 WAR every year for that to be a "good" deal.

I am aware. He is in line for a bad deal (team perspective). Do you disagree with my estimate? I feel like he'll get paid based on who his agent is, good year this year, and he the only halfway decent option in Free agency at 1b this offseason.

[DrungoHazewood]

I am aware. He is in line for a bad deal (team perspective). Do you disagree with my estimate? I feel like he'll get paid based on who his agent is, good year this year, and he the only halfway decent option in Free agency at 1b this offseason.

I think the Orioles will probably try to find some reasonable values at other positions to make up for the fact there aren't many options at first base and Davis is going to get a fairly unreasonable offer (from our perspective) from someone else. But, you never know. They have $50M coming off the books, or something like that. I probably wouldn't get out my torch and pitchfork if they tried to resign Davis.

[osfan83]

Who says we will be in the playoff hunt?

I expect we will be within 2-3 games of a playoff spot well into September.

[El Gordo]

I think the rule of thumb is about 7 now. I have reservations as I outlined a few posts ago, but I'd put Davis' value at something like 4 + 3.5 + 3 + 2.5 + 2 = 15, times $7M = $105M. But someone will be more optimistic, and someone will factor in inflation, and I think he gets 5/120.

I would agree with that. I think something between 5/80M and 6/100M would be a reasonable risk. What others might offer doesn't concern me. I think there is a sour grapes syndrome here with Davis. Since it is unlikely we can afford what he will get on the FA market lets devalue him so we won't feel we are losing anything significant. He's bound to fall off a cliff in 2 years, he's the second coming of Adam Dunn, etc.

[e16bball]

My guess would be a couple seasons around that line and then plummet. Just a hunch. I won't be one of the board members crying about it when he signs elsewhere for 6/120 that's for sure

Pablo Sandoval - 5/95M

Hanley Ramirez - 4/88M

Brian McCann - 5/85M

Russell Martin - 5/82M

Victor Martinez - 4/68M

Curtis Granderson - 4/60M

Nelson Cruz - 4/57M

Jhonny Peralta - 4/53M

Chase Headley - 4/52M

Given those contracts from the last two offseasons, I sincerely doubt that Davis is going to get anything even approaching the neighborhood of 6/120M.

I actually agree with you about Davis's skill set being one that's likely to age poorly. But I don't think the contract price will be nearly as prohibitive as you (and everyone else?) seem to think. Guys with K rates north of 30%, steroids whispers, an amphetamines suspension, limitations to 1B/COF defensively, and only one season of legitimately All-Star level production don't get 9 figures.

At 6/120M, I too would wish him well and take the draft pick. At something more in the neighborhood of 5/80M (where I think he'll likely end up), I'm much more torn.