Qualifying Offer Value Set At $17.2MM

[theobird]

I don't feel Wieters was vastly overpaid this year. In fact, I feel we would not have made the playoffs without him. Fangraphs valued his season at $13.7 mm, or about $2.1 mm less than last year's QO. When you throw in his excellent performance in high-leverage situations (1.83 WPA), I'd say he was worth the QO.

In a way, there is a stronger argument this year for giving Wieters a QO: (1) we now know that he's again capable of carrying a 120-game workload (which wasn't clear going into last season), and (2) the alternative of using Caleb Joseph as the primary catcher doesn't seem nearly as plausible now as it did after last season.

This. Exactly. I think you have to QO Matt again this year.

[weams]

O's offered him 3/33-35.

Washington will offer him 50 million.

[Frobby]

Washington will offer him 50 million.

I'm not too sure about that. They offered Wilson Ramos 3/$30 mm just shortly before he got hurt, and Ramos is 2 years younger and was having a career year.

[Tryptamine]

O's offered him 3/33-35.

That was well below market. People were expecting him to get anywhere from 3/45 to 4/60. Hopefully he's rewarded this off season and he gets his 4/60 contract now that he's coming off a 4.7fWAR year.

[Can_of_corn]

That was well below market. People were expecting him to get anywhere from 3/45 to 4/60. Hopefully he's rewarded this off season and he gets his 4/60 contract now that he's coming off a 4.7fWAR year.

Obviously if it was the highest offer it was market.

[Chavez Ravine]

I'm not too sure about that. They offered Wilson Ramos 3/$30 mm just shortly before he got hurt, and Ramos is 2 years younger and was having a career year.

I agree. While GM's tend to think of all the reasons why mid-career outfielders will continue to do all the great things they do, they tend to think of all the reasons why mid-career catchers will fall off a cliff. I don't think that Matt's pretty good year compensates much for the fact he is a year older. They seem like a wash to me.

[pastorfan]

This. Exactly. I think you have to QO Matt again this year.

I agree. Maybe in a year Cisco is ready.

[Frobby]

Interesting development:

Do you think the Orioles will make Wieters a qualifying offer?

It’s ... never mind. Assuming that the offer still exists, and FOXSports.com reported that it’s increasing to $17.2 million, the Orioles aren’t expected to extend it to Wieters. Executive vice president Dan Duquette said no decision has been made, but right now the assumption is they won’t do it. The New York Post is reporting that adjustments could be made that include a team being unable to extend it to the same player two years in a row, which makes the argument moot.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2016/10/because-you-asked---next-friday.html

[TINSTAAPP]

I don't feel Wieters was vastly overpaid this year. In fact, I feel we would not have made the playoffs without him. Fangraphs valued his season at $13.7 mm, or about $2.1 mm less than last year's QO. When you throw in his excellent performance in high-leverage situations (1.83 WPA), I'd say he was worth the QO.

In a way, there is a stronger argument this year for giving Wieters a QO: (1) we now know that he's again capable of carrying a 120-game workload (which wasn't clear going into last season), and (2) the alternative of using Caleb Joseph as the primary catcher doesn't seem nearly as plausible now as it did after last season.

Again, I've always believed the $8 million/WAR is vastly overestimating a player's value. Think about it this way. Do you think Ubaldo Jimenez's contract would have been worth it if he has a 4.3 WAR season in 2017? A 4.3 WAR season is comparable to the season Gausman had this past year. If Ubaldo has that type of year in 2017, it'll still go down as a terrible deal. Or what about Chris Davis? He was worth 3.0 WAR in 2016. Do you believe Davis would have been worth the money if he has a 2016-type season in every year of his 7-year contract?

[Frobby]

Again, I've always believed the $8 million/WAR is vastly overestimating a player's value. Think about it this way. Do you think Ubaldo Jimenez's contract would have been worth it if he has a 4.3 WAR season in 2017? A 4.3 WAR season is comparable to the season Gausman had this past year. If Ubaldo has that type of year in 2017, it'll still go down as a terrible deal. Or what about Chris Davis? He was worth 3.0 WAR in 2016. Do you believe Davis would have been worth the money if he has a 2016-type season in every year of his 7-year contract?

I don't know what to tell you. Fangraphs has a clearly explained methodology for determining the value of 1 WAR, and while I think it might be possible to devise a better one that is non-linear, I certainly haven't seen anyone who knows what they're doing try to do it. Until something better comes along, I don't have any basis to use anything different that $8 mm/WAR. For Ubaldo, my main issue is that fangraphs' valuation of him (4.7 fWAR over the last three years) seems very high (BB-ref has him at 2.1, which feels a lot closer to the truth). But could he validate his 4-year contract if he had a very good year in 2017? I'd begrudgingly say yes. As to Davis, yes I'd say if he had 6 more years like the last one he'd probably be worth his deal. Prices are what they are. Davis had a better year than the other top free agent position players from last season who had comparable salaries (Upton, Heyward, Gordon).

[backwardsk]

You can add Cespedes to that Upton, Heyward, Gordon list.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DrungoHazewood]

Again, I've always believed the $8 million/WAR is vastly overestimating a player's value.

So what's your estimate and how did you arrive at that number?

Think about it this way. Do you think Ubaldo Jimenez's contract would have been worth it if he has a 4.3 WAR season in 2017? A 4.3 WAR season is comparable to the season Gausman had this past year. If Ubaldo has that type of year in 2017, it'll still go down as a terrible deal.

Ubaldo's contract is 4 years, $50M. That's paying him for seven or eight wins. That's not that much. That would be the 9th-highest paid Yankee, after they shed salary this year in deadline deals. If he puts up a 4-5 win season next year on a contract paying him for 7-8 wins over four years that's a great value.

Or what about Chris Davis? He was worth 3.0 WAR in 2016. Do you believe Davis would have been worth the money if he has a 2016-type season in every year of his 7-year contract?

I think your issue with Davis isn't the $8M/win so much as you think he looked bad and wasn't worth three wins. I'd guess that if he had the same productivity but hit .260 with 140 Ks you'd have much less of an issue.

The $8M per win in free agency is a simple calculation: It's dollars spent per win above replacement, based on actuals. It's not a theoretical number, it's that in 2016 teams spent $8M for each WAR they bought on the free agent market.

[Frobby]

So what's your estimate and how did you arrive at that number?

Ubaldo's contract is 4 years, $50M. That's paying him for seven or eight wins. That's not that much. That would be the 9th-highest paid Yankee, after they shed salary this year in deadline deals. If he puts up a 4-5 win season next year on a contract paying him for 7-8 wins over four years that's a great value.

I think your issue with Davis isn't the $8M/win so much as you think he looked bad and wasn't worth three wins. I'd guess that if he had the same productivity but hit .260 with 140 Ks you'd have much less of an issue.

The $8M per win in free agency is a simple calculation: It's dollars spent per win above replacement, based on actuals. It's not a theoretical number, it's that in 2016 teams spent $8M for each WAR they bought on the free agent market.

I think the reason fans have trouble with that valuation is because the pre-arb/arb/FA divide in the way salaries are determined tends to inflate the salaries paid to free agents. If players were FA-eligible after, say, two years of service, the price paid per WAR would go way down, because there would be a lot more WAR on the market but roughly the same amount of payroll dollars chasing it. And in a world where Manny Machado gets paid $5 mm, it seems crazy to say that Chris Davis is "worth" $23 mm. But in the system we have, where salaries are artificially depressed for a large number of players, salaries are inflated for the others.