"Wow offer made to Davis!" (7 years - $150M Not one nickle more)

[Going Underground]

There is a ton of information on that in the 2012 RSDC decision and some of the documents used as exhibits in the court challenge to that decision. Of course, until the RSDC makes a new decision and any further challenges are resolved, there can be no definitive statement of what the O's make from MASN. We can only give a range.

From 2014, to get an idea:

Not every contract, however, has the same tough parameters for RSNs as the Dodgers agreement. The Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) charged $2.28 per month per subscriber in the 6 million person pay-TV audience in the Washington and Baltimore metropolitan areas in 2013. Both the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles each receive $0.40 per month per subscriber or $28.9 million per year enabling MASN to have a significant gross profit.

The current deal structure shows why MASN is the exception rather than rule in RSN deals. The Orioles became the majority owners of MASN as compensation for Nationals becoming a competitor in its market in 2005. The team has kept media rights fees for both Orioles and Nationals relatively low to generate higher profits MASN. The networks profits do not count towards MLBs revenue sharing meaning the Orioles keep more money from the network than from RSN fees. However, the teams are on a collision course in court because the Nationals believe it has not received its fair market value in compensation starting from the 2012 season. There is a strong possibility that Nationals rights fees will increase in the future making these deals significantly more expensive for MASN.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/07/31/how-mlb-could-be-causing-the-sports-financing-bubble/

[Can_of_corn]

Hard to imagine CD as Ryan Howard. The are 3TO's but one is athletic and a gym rat, and the other, not so much. Same for the Big Donkey comps. Yes Davis has been erratic but if you don't place too much emphasis on the 2014 year, in which he had mitigating issues (injury, pressure to repeat, TUE, baby) he has shown a general improvement since TEX. I doubt he has another year as good as 2013 but also not one as bad as 2014.

I think there is a pretty good chance he has a year worse then 2014 before his next contract is over.

[El Gordo]

I think there is a pretty good chance he has a year worse then 2014 before his next contract is over.

I doubt it.

[Can_of_corn]

I doubt it.

His 2014 closed in at 1.8 rWAR, .8 fWAR.

Let's say he signs a seven year deal, you don't think there is a pretty good chance that from ages 30-36 he puts up a lower number in at least one of those seasons?

Pujols had a season with an fWAR under 1.8 during that age bracket.

[TouchemAll]

Nah I highly doubt it. BESIDES

Save it for Machado

[DrungoHazewood]

His 2014 closed in at 1.8 rWAR, .8 fWAR.

Let's say he signs a seven year deal, you don't think there is a pretty good chance that from ages 30-36 he puts up a lower number in at least one of those seasons?

Pujols had a season with an fWAR under 1.8 during that age bracket.

In 2008 and 2009 David Ortiz posted fWARs of 1.7 and 0.3. Jim Rice was never worth more than a win from 34-36. At 30 Dave Kingman had his best year, 3.7 fWAR and 48 homers. From then on his was below replacement about as often as above. Boog Powell's 26-29 seasons he was worth more than Davis, from 30-on he was around four wins twice, a little over two twice, and replacement twice. Geroge Foster had a 5-win, 40-homer, 120-RBI season at 29 (the year after he hit 50 homers), but three years later he was below replacement. In 1988, at 30, Mo Vaughn was a 6-win MVP candidate. That was his last year over two wins. Tony Armas had a 43-homer, 123-RBI season at 30, then never got to 25 homers again. There's a non-trivial chance that Davis' established level of production is his 2014 by halfway through the deal.

[big_sparxx]

Save it for Machado?

There's a mighty big assumption that he will want to re-sign with us... If we don't make a run at being competitive (signing CD goes a long way to proving that), we can guarantee that Manny will be on the trading block.

I said it before. Losing Nick and Nelson last year left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. Losing CD this year (on top of Wieters and Chen) sends a message to the other players that the club is in serious rebuilding mode. You think the players don't talk about this stuff? Why do you think Adam said he wants more say in the offseason?

They will overpay to keep Davis... simply because losing him will cost them more long term.

[weams]

Nah I highly doubt it. BESIDES

Save it for Machado

Have you ever noticed any Orioles payroll saved? Or used in the future? I have seen them spend now and pay later.

[Babypowder]

Do three true outcome hitters age worse than average? I know years ago Bill James postulated that players with "old player skills" age worse than athletic, fast guys but TTO is just part of that. Even if they do, is that because most of them are already butting up against the wrong side of the defensive spectrum and when they fall to league average offense they're almost unplayable?

I haven't done any thorough analysis on it, although I have started to. I just think of the recent examples of extreme TTO types and very few of them remained productive into their 30s. The ones that did were all much better and more consistent hitters than Davis and were productive earlier in their careers.

Just looking through the top 100 hitters by wRC+ over the last 10 seasons among guys I'd call TTO hitters we have:

Travis Hafner, broke in late, was great for a few seasons, fell off a cliff at age 30, out of baseball.

Carlos Delgado, borderline HOFer, broke in younger and was better than Davis for longer, decline began at age 33 and went down sharply.

Jason Werth, held up pretty well until a -.3 win season this year at 36. He has been worth about 122 million dollars from ages 30-36 and started with a better base.

Jack Cust, had his last productive year at 31, out of baseball.

Jason Giambi, last good season at 34, obviously starting with a much better early career.

Mike Napoli, just had a sub 1 win season at 34, we'll see what happens now.

Ryan Howard, last productive year at age 30, complete disaster for the last 6 and STILL under contract.

Josh Willingham, last productive year at 33, out of baseball.

Pat Burrell, out of baseball by 35, worth 3 wins at age 29 and never got back there again although had two mildly productive seasons of 2.5 wins in his 30s.

Adam Dunn, worth 3 wins at age 31, sub-replacement afterwards, out of baseball.

Morgan Ensberg, late bloomer, worth 3.8 wins at 31, sub replacement for 2 years after, out of baseball at 33.

Carlos Pena, worth 2.8 wins at age 31, never made it back there and out of baseball at 36.

Troy Glaus, worth 3.8 wins at 32, out of baseball by 34.

Jason Bay, another late bloomer, worth 4.6 wins at age 30, never above 1.3 after and out of baseball at 34.

There are only two examples of TTO guys aging well in that time period: Jim Thome and Jose Bautista. Obviously Thome is a HOFer and had a much more productive early career than Davis and Bautista's career path is legendary because of how rare it is.

[Dark Helmet]

Don't sign anyone to save up for Manny? What a joke. First, if they won't give anyone a $100 m deal, you really think they will give Manny the 10/250+m deal it will take to keep him? Second, why would Manny want to lock into a team that will most likely be bad, when contenders can and will offer him more. Third, why put almost your entire wad into one player, if you can't surround him with enough talent to even contend? Keeping Manny unfortunately doesn't make sense for the Orioles or Manny. Just enjoy him while he's here.

[$Greatness$]

I've never seen so many people willing to part ways with a 40 homerun guy with ease. I don't know if I should scared or what!

[Crabcakes]

Don't sign anyone to save up for Manny? What a joke. First, if they won't give anyone a $100 m deal, you really think they will give Manny the 10/250+m deal it will take to keep him? Second, why would Manny want to lock into a team that will most likely be bad, when contenders can and will offer him more. Third, why put almost your entire wad into one player, if you can't surround him with enough talent to even contend? Keeping Manny unfortunately doesn't make sense for the Orioles or Manny. Just enjoy him while he's here.

Why did Manny & Jones plead with the Orioles to keep Davis? They realize that this team can't/isn't doing it with the Farm System. Therefore, the team needs a serious infusion of cash to keep the good players (including Manny; he's worth locking him up for 10/$250). Whether or not it happens will be left up to negotiations......seeing the track record of the present front office.....I wouldn't bet on it.

Come on O's....surprise me....surprise us all

[Roll Tide]

I haven't done any thorough analysis on it, although I have started to. I just think of the recent examples of extreme TTO types and very few of them remained productive into their 30s. The ones that did were all much better and more consistent hitters than Davis and were productive earlier in their careers.

Just looking through the top 100 hitters by wRC+ over the last 10 seasons among guys I'd call TTO hitters we have:

Travis Hafner, broke in late, was great for a few seasons, fell off a cliff at age 30, out of baseball.

Carlos Delgado, borderline HOFer, broke in younger and was better than Davis for longer, decline began at age 33 and went down sharply.

Jason Werth, held up pretty well until a -.3 win season this year at 36. He has been worth about 122 million dollars from ages 30-36 and started with a better base.

Jack Cust, had his last productive year at 31, out of baseball.

Jason Giambi, last good season at 34, obviously starting with a much better early career.

Mike Napoli, just had a sub 1 win season at 34, we'll see what happens now.

Ryan Howard, last productive year at age 30, complete disaster for the last 6 and STILL under contract.

Josh Willingham, last productive year at 33, out of baseball.

Pat Burrell, out of baseball by 35, worth 3 wins at age 29 and never got back there again although had two mildly productive seasons of 2.5 wins in his 30s.

Adam Dunn, worth 3 wins at age 31, sub-replacement afterwards, out of baseball.

Morgan Ensberg, late bloomer, worth 3.8 wins at 31, sub replacement for 2 years after, out of baseball at 33.

Carlos Pena, worth 2.8 wins at age 31, never made it back there and out of baseball at 36.

Troy Glaus, worth 3.8 wins at 32, out of baseball by 34.

Jason Bay, another late bloomer, worth 4.6 wins at age 30, never above 1.3 after and out of baseball at 34.

There are only two examples of TTO guys aging well in that time period: Jim Thome and Jose Bautista. Obviously Thome is a HOFer and had a much more productive early career than Davis and Bautista's career path is legendary because of how rare it is.

How many of these guys were effected by the end of the Steriod era? I think you have to consider that Davis will not be affected by that!

[El Gordo]

Why did Manny & Jones plead with the Orioles to keep Davis? They realize that this team can't/isn't doing it with the Farm System. Therefore, the team needs a serious infusion of cash to keep the good players (including Manny; he's worth locking him up for 10/$250). Whether or not it happens will be left up to negotiations......seeing the track record of the present front office.....I wouldn't bet on it.

Come on O's....surprise me....surprise us all

They're just baseball players, they don't know anything about baseball. You have to ask the accountants about that stuff.

[DrungoHazewood]

I haven't done any thorough analysis on it, although I have started to. I just think of the recent examples of extreme TTO types and very few of them remained productive into their 30s. The ones that did were all much better and more consistent hitters than Davis and were productive earlier in their careers.

Just looking through the top 100 hitters by wRC+ over the last 10 seasons among guys I'd call TTO hitters we have:

Travis Hafner, broke in late, was great for a few seasons, fell off a cliff at age 30, out of baseball.

Carlos Delgado, borderline HOFer, broke in younger and was better than Davis for longer, decline began at age 33 and went down sharply.

Jason Werth, held up pretty well until a -.3 win season this year at 36. He has been worth about 122 million dollars from ages 30-36 and started with a better base.

Jack Cust, had his last productive year at 31, out of baseball.

Jason Giambi, last good season at 34, obviously starting with a much better early career.

Mike Napoli, just had a sub 1 win season at 34, we'll see what happens now.

Ryan Howard, last productive year at age 30, complete disaster for the last 6 and STILL under contract.

Josh Willingham, last productive year at 33, out of baseball.

Pat Burrell, out of baseball by 35, worth 3 wins at age 29 and never got back there again although had two mildly productive seasons of 2.5 wins in his 30s.

Adam Dunn, worth 3 wins at age 31, sub-replacement afterwards, out of baseball.

Morgan Ensberg, late bloomer, worth 3.8 wins at 31, sub replacement for 2 years after, out of baseball at 33.

Carlos Pena, worth 2.8 wins at age 31, never made it back there and out of baseball at 36.

Troy Glaus, worth 3.8 wins at 32, out of baseball by 34.

Jason Bay, another late bloomer, worth 4.6 wins at age 30, never above 1.3 after and out of baseball at 34.

There are only two examples of TTO guys aging well in that time period: Jim Thome and Jose Bautista. Obviously Thome is a HOFer and had a much more productive early career than Davis and Bautista's career path is legendary because of how rare it is.

Thanks. That's part of the answer. The other side of it is to look at all the non-TTO free agents and see what they did from 30-on. I think you'll probably see that they're not much better. Most players are out of baseball by 35.

Just free-associating anti-TTO guys from the list of top baserunning value in the 2000s...

Juan Pierre was worth about 19 wins through 30, 4 afterwards.

Jimmy Rollins has an almost HOF career, but has been below average at 34 and 36.

Carl Crawford was playing at an MVP level at 28/29, has had three sub-one-win seasons since he turned 30.

Johnny Damon never really had a peak, he was just a 3-5 win player from 25-35.

Chone Figgins famously fell off the side of the planet in his early 30s.

Ichiro obviously played at a very high level for a long time, until he collapsed at 37.

Chase Utley was great, until this year when he totally collapsed.

Brian Roberts' career was totally destroyed by injuries in his early 30s.

Scott Posednik had three pretty good years in his late 20s, and was mostly useless in his 30s.

Luis Castillo's last good year was at 31.

Randy Winn was good the year he turned 34, then quickly slid out of baseball.

Remember Willy Tavares? He's 33 right now and hasn't played in the majors in five years.

I guess there are a few more guys who lasted a long time, but the real takeaway, IMO, is that committing money to a 30-year-old is always a dicey proposition.