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"Wow offer made to Davis!" (7 years - $150M Not one nickle more)

wildcard

By wildcard
in Orioles Talk

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isestrex Hangout Grand Counsel

isestrex

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CHRIS-DAVIS-VALUES-BASED-ON-AGE-30-THROUGH-AGE-36-COMPS-e1447892666153.png

2/3rds of his comps produced at 80 million or less value at the 8M/Win cost.

Not to doubt fangraphs (hadn't seen that excellent graph) but just who can compare to Davis's career? Surely they aren't using his Tex years as comparisons... He's a completely different player now. Davis is a unique player who always had power but figured it out late in life. The Ortiz comparison is an apt one; who are in those bottom 2/3 that are bringing the numbers down?

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Not to doubt fangraphs (hadn't seen that excellent graph) but just who can compare to Davis's career? Surely they aren't using his Tex years as comparisons... He's a completely different player now. Davis is a unique player who always had power but figured it out late in life. The Ortiz comparison is an apt one; who are in those bottom 2/3 that are bringing the numbers down?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-davis-a-risk-in-free-agency/

Ryan Howard was too good to be a comp.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Not to doubt fangraphs (hadn't seen that excellent graph) but just who can compare to Davis's career? Surely they aren't using his Tex years as comparisons... He's a completely different player now. Davis is a unique player who always had power but figured it out late in life. The Ortiz comparison is an apt one; who are in those bottom 2/3 that are bringing the numbers down?
If CD could hit for a whole season the way he hit the second half, .293 .409 .669 1.078, he would hit 62 HR and 143 RBI. Who knows?
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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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Forget the market or his value to the O's. In general' date=' what do you think he will really be worth? [b']Will some team paying him 20 million average get a deal or regret it?[/b]

Sure, I think it's possible a team gets $20 million in production for the first two to three years. After that? All bets are off.

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Bmorebirds24 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Bmorebirds24

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He will get at least 5/120. Will whomever signs him regret it? Most likely. Most free big free agent deals end poorly. Whenever you're paying a guy to be significantly more valuable in his 30s than his was in his 20s you're putting yourself at risk.

I agree with your post but it brings me to this question...

If we are going to regret 2-3 maybe 4 years of the contract is it worth even signing him? I have to go with no.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Il BuonO Hangout Grand Counsel

Il BuonO

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If CD could hit for a whole season the way he hit the second half, .293 .409 .669 1.078, he would hit 62 HR and 143 RBI. Who knows?
Lol, yes, who knows? I'm sure that level of production is attainable. Let's offer him 10/$300mil to be sure he enters the HOF as an Oriole when he hits 800 HR.
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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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I don't.

But I also don't want Mancini at first.

If "digging deeper" means PA increases the budget beyond what it would otherwise be for the specific and singular purpose of signing Davis, then I am fine with it. Otherwise, it is pretty risky. But I don't think PA is going to make a similar exception for Price or Greinke.

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