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Orioles inquired about Melvin Upton, Jr (BlueJays)


Sir_Loin

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Needed a left handed bat of some type.

Just saying based on the projected payroll in ST they should have been OK to add Upton unless they were paying a significant part of Ubaldo's salary as well.

Of course attendance is down more than 2K a game, that could very easily be a factor.

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I'd really like to know the names of those 2 prospects...

Didn't see this posted, but we know the name of the kid Toronto gave up. Rookie league right hander, #18 in the Jays system after 2015 season. Hansel Rodriguez.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/blue-jays-agree-to-acquire-melvin-upton.html

http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/3145

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I don't recall where I have seen it but we have been using the 8M figure all year.

I really don't want to start yet another philosophical discussion of WAR, but the value of it is not linear. Extreme WAR figures are worth substantially more, because it's more likely to exceed the play of other available options given that WAR now assumes a .294 replacement level.

For example, a 1.0 WAR player over a full 162 games is basically worthless, the next point of WAR might be worth $4 million, and the next after that $9 million, then $10 million each after that. Please don't try to debate the exact numbers, but it's the pattern that matters and it's important when valuing marginal players at this time of year, particularly if signed for multiple years.

To win 95 games, a team needs to have about 47 total WAR (since .294 works to 48 wins) spread among all of it's players.

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Where is the best place to find how WAR = $$$?

The easiest thing to do is just look at fangraphs for some player and reverse engineer it. For example, they have Manny at 4.5 fWAR and say that's been worth $35.9 mm. That's almost exactly $8 mm/WAR.

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I really don't want to start yet another philosophical discussion of WAR, but the value of it is not linear. Extreme WAR figures are worth substantially more, because it's more likely to exceed the play of other available options given that WAR now assumes a .294 replacement level.

For example, a 1.0 WAR player over a full 162 games is basically worthless, the next point of WAR might be worth $4 million, and the next after that $9 million, then $10 million each after that. Please don't try to debate the exact numbers, but it's the pattern that matters and it's important when valuing marginal players at this time of year, particularly if signed for multiple years.

I was illustrating that even if you go by Fangraphs' rosy opinion of Ubaldo's season to date his compensation outweighs his performance.

Not sure what brought your reply on?

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I really don't want to start yet another philosophical discussion of WAR, but the value of it is not linear. Extreme WAR figures are worth substantially more, because it's more likely to exceed the play of other available options given that WAR now assumes a .294 replacement level.

For example, a 1.0 WAR player over a full 162 games is basically worthless, the next point of WAR might be worth $4 million, and the next after that $9 million, then $10 million each after that. Please don't try to debate the exact numbers, but it's the pattern that matters and it's important when valuing marginal players at this time of year, particularly if signed for multiple years.

To win 95 games, a team needs to have about 47 total WAR (since .294 works to 48 wins) spread among all of it's players.

I don't disagree with you, but I've never seen a good attempt to chart how the value of WAR might vary at it increases for a specific player.

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What this seems to come down to for me is that we must have been much more interested in offloading Ubaldo than actually acquiring Upton.

Which I can't blame them for, at all. The O's are done with Ubaldo Jimenez. Swapping bad contracts and maybe getting something out of Upton, who has shown a bit of life, is a better prospect than just giving Ubaldo his cash and releasing him.

It sounds like the Jays got in late and just narrowly got Upton over whatever the O's offered. It happens.

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