Fangraphs projects the O's rotation at 26th in MLB

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, scOtt said:

True ace level, MLB best. In short stretches.

Years ago.

 

[scOtt]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Years ago.

 

Last September at least.

[24fps]

Channeling their inner PECOTA I see. 

Excellent...

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, scOtt said:

Last September at least.

Major league best?

Not hardly.

I'll give you pretty decent.

For short stretches.

[MurphDogg]

I don't understand how a 29 year-old Tillman is projected to have worst season of his career while a 30 year-old Wade Miley is projected to have the third-best season of his career. I guess that's why I am not an expert prognosticator.

[scOtt]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Major league best?

Not hardly.

I'll give you pretty decent.

For short stretches.

I'll tell you what my untrained eye sees. He has a crazy delivery that comes and goes. When he's reasonably good he has crazy movement on his pitches. He'll pitch 5 innings zooming the ball out of the strike zone, walking guys. Damn! We lost 3-2. But when he really dials in the zone, with that crazy movement, he's an ace. That Maddux copyright tailing FB, when he's on U is devastating.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, scOtt said:

I'll tell you what my untrained eye sees. He has a crazy delivery that comes and goes. When he's reasonably good he has crazy movement on his pitches. He'll pitch 5 innings zooming the ball out of the strike zone, walking guys. Damn! We lost 3-2. But when he really dials in the zone, with that crazy movement, he's an ace. That Maddux copyright tailing FB, when he's on U is devastating.

I'll tell you what the radar gun sees.  That he's lost 5-6 MPH from when he had no hit stuff.

When he dials it in he's pretty good.

He isn't a guy that can go out there and give you a double digit scoreless inning streak.

[sportsfan8703]

59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll tell you what the radar gun sees.  That he's lost 5-6 MPH from when he had no hit stuff.

When he dials it in he's pretty good.

He isn't a guy that can go out there and give you a double digit scoreless inning streak.

It would not shock me to see Ubaldo dealt.  I don't think Buck and DD want to gamble on Ubaldo again.  I don't know who would take him and for what price, but if we could swap Ubaldo out for Hammel, we would be a much more consistent team next year.  

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't understand how a 29 year-old Tillman is projected to have worst season of his career while a 30 year-old Wade Miley is projected to have the third-best season of his career. I guess that's why I am not an expert prognosticator.

I'm a bit surprised by that too. But I think that the projection algorithms rely on FIP more than on ERA. Tillman's FIP has almost always been worse than his ERA and Miley's FIP has almost always been better than his ERA. So the computer probably thinks the two are more equal than we do. 

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll tell you what the radar gun sees.  That he's lost 5-6 MPH from when he had no hit stuff.

When he dials it in he's pretty good.

He isn't a guy that can go out there and give you a double digit scoreless inning streak.

Check out the box scores from Sept 16 and 21 and back to me.

[sportsfan8703]

14 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Check out the box scores from Sept 16 and 21 and back to me.

Ubaldo seems like a great guy and an awesome teammate but can we really count on him over a 162 season again?  A week ago we were beggars that couldn't be choosers.  Now we got rid of Gallardo and there might be hope we could get rid of Ubaldo.  

As much as I've talked crap about Hammel being an NL only pitcher, for the right price(2/15), I'd take him in our rotation next year over Ubaldo.  

There were just so many games last year where we had no chance from the beginning of the game because Ubaldo/Wilson/Wright/Gallardo/Miley just didn't have it.  Especially in the first two months.  I don't want a repeat of that.  

[Moose Milligan]

Miley could have a good year in the same way I could bang a VS catalog model.  

I know I'm going to have to make backup plans for his starts this year so I can have something to look forward to when he can't make it out of the 3rd inning.

Miley Cyrus bashing aside, I don't see how our rotation is that bad but I don't think it'll be that great, either.  Only way we can break out of the bottom half is if Gausman and Bundy are ridiculous this year.

[Camden_yardbird]

15 hours ago, esmd said:

The key for this rotation is the continued upward production of Gausman and Bundy.  If they can both stay healthy and continue to get better, and Tillman has a normal season for him (2015 is the outlier, not the norm, IMO), then that's a very good top 3.  If that happens, they should win a lot of games, and I'd wager that they'll much better than 26th in MLB.

Obviously regression and/or injury can screw up the whole deal.  Fingers crossed.

I disagree to a point.  While their improvement would certainly be really helpfultimate I think what is key for the rotation is establishing any other home grown pitcher as a viable pitcher.  We can't keep looking outward.  Wilson looked like that guy at first last year and faded.  Wright does ithat every 4th start.  I want to see one guy who steps up and stretches the teams depth at SP out.

I honestly think it could be Verrett, and I would not underestimate the tenacity of Wilson either.

[Babypowder]

39 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I disagree to a point.  While their improvement would certainly be really helpfultimate I think what is key for the rotation is establishing any other home grown pitcher as a viable pitcher.  We can't keep looking outward.  Wilson looked like that guy at first last year and faded.  Wright does ithat every 4th start.  I want to see one guy who steps up and stretches the teams depth at SP out.

I honestly think it could be Verrett, and I would not underestimate the tenacity of Wilson either.

It's not his tenacity I doubt, it's his stuff that is too easy to hit.

[Camden_yardbird]

5 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

It's not his tenacity I doubt, it's his stuff that is too easy to hit.

For sure.  He has got to figure that out, but pitchers have done that in the past, not many, but he is of the mindset of those that could.