Austin Hays

[eddie83]

Maybe they should play Trumbo at 1st some and DH Davis here and there. If he handles being in the field better. 

[crissfan172]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Fair enough.

I sure hope Trumbo bounces back next year.

Did you hear his interview after his game-winning hit against the Blue Jays 10 days ago? 

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/trumbo-on-walk-off-single/c-1806180483

"You can't hunt your perfect pitch". This is the thought process of a man with a .302 career OBP. Last night was another good example. You're facing a righty that is strictly throwing FB/SL. You know he wants to get you out with sliders away. Does he look inside, knowing the pitches away are unhittable? No, he flails at sliders just off the plate. Hitting is extremely difficult, but if you have the right mental approach, you can at least give yourself a chance. I just can't imagine a rebound unless he completely changes his approach. 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, crissfan172 said:

Did you hear his interview after his game-winning hit against the Blue Jays 10 days ago? 

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/trumbo-on-walk-off-single/c-1806180483

"You can't hunt your perfect pitch". This is the thought process of a man with a .302 career OBP. Last night was another good example. You're facing a righty that is strictly throwing FB/SL. You know he wants to get you out with sliders away. Does he look inside, knowing the pitches away are unhittable? No, he flails at sliders just off the plate. Hitting is extremely difficult, but if you have the right mental approach, you can at least give yourself a chance. I just can't imagine a rebound unless he completely changes his approach. 

What approach did he have last year?

[Sessh]

10 minutes ago, crissfan172 said:

Did you hear his interview after his game-winning hit against the Blue Jays 10 days ago? 

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/trumbo-on-walk-off-single/c-1806180483

"You can't hunt your perfect pitch". This is the thought process of a man with a .302 career OBP. Last night was another good example. You're facing a righty that is strictly throwing FB/SL. You know he wants to get you out with sliders away. Does he look inside, knowing the pitches away are unhittable? No, he flails at sliders just off the plate. Hitting is extremely difficult, but if you have the right mental approach, you can at least give yourself a chance. I just can't imagine a rebound unless he completely changes his approach. 

The thing is Trumbo has bounced back. He bounced back to the guy he really is. You know, the guy that was so bad that the M's traded him for Steve Clevinger just to get rid of his salary? We even got C.J. Reifenhauser on top of Trumbo for Steve F'in Clevinger. That guy. The guy that hit 47 home runs last season almost certainly had some help and was not something that would be sustainable. Every team in baseball knew that except the Orioles, of course. This is who Trumbo is... without the help. Of course, I can't prove that he used something, but seems pretty obvious to me. Contract year as well. Even still, it was an anomalous year.. obviously. I can't see how anyone would reasonably expect him to be that player going forward.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sessh said:

The thing is Trumbo has bounced back. He bounced back to the guy he really is. You know, the guy that was so bad that the M's traded him for Steve Clevinger just to get rid of his salary? We even got C.J. Reifenhauser on top of Trumbo for Steve F'in Clevinger. That guy. The guy that hit 47 home runs last season almost certainly had some help and was not something that would be sustainable. Every team in baseball knew that except the Orioles, of course. This is who Trumbo is... without the help. Of course, I can't prove that he used something, but seems pretty obvious to me. Contract year as well. Even still, it was an anomalous year.. obviously. I can't see how anyone would reasonably expect him to be that player going forward.

This has been the worst year of Trumbo's career.     Of course nobody expects him to hit 47 homers, but yes, I expect something better than this next year.

[Sessh]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

This has been the worst year of Trumbo's career.     Of course nobody expects him to hit 47 homers, but yes, I expect something better than this next year.

He put up an almost identical slash line with Arizona in 2014, but in fewer games, so it shouldn't be that surprising. Thing is Trumbo is just the kind of player to suddenly fall off a cliff production wise. I would even say he may not even be in baseball at all in five years. He can't play D, he can't get on base, he doesn't run well and he doesn't hit for average. All he does is one thing and doesn't do it nearly well enough to offset how bad the rest of his game is. What he did in 2015 is basically who he is and he's not going to get better. 

2014 (88g) - .235/.293/.413 (.707 OPS)

2017 (134g) - .240/.293/.413 (.707 OPS)

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 hours ago, Sessh said:

He put up an almost identical slash line with Arizona in 2014, but in fewer games, so it shouldn't be that surprising. Thing is Trumbo is just the kind of player to suddenly fall off a cliff production wise. I would even say he may not even be in baseball at all in five years. He can't play D, he can't get on base, he doesn't run well and he doesn't hit for average. All he does is one thing and doesn't do it nearly well enough to offset how bad the rest of his game is. What he did in 2015 is basically who he is and he's not going to get better. 

2014 (88g) - .235/.293/.413 (.707 OPS)

2017 (134g) - .240/.293/.413 (.707 OPS)

And by OPS+ (87) this is Trumbo's worst season, offense is up compared to 2014.  

[scbalt52]

I actually don't think starting Hays every game the rest of the year would be a sign of giving up, I actually believe he is our best option out there and would outperform the others.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

And by OPS+ (87) this is Trumbo's worst season, offense is up compared to 2014.  

Yes, this was my point.    

[Frobby]

Just now, scbalt52 said:

I actually don't think starting Hays every game the rest of the year would be a sign of giving up, I actually believe he is our best option out there and would outperform the others.

Maybe, but you're taking a leap of faith to reach that conclusion.   I'm a huge Hays fan, and really hope he's our RF for the next decade, but hitting AA pitching is not nearly the same as hitting major league pitching.    Some guys can make that jump without missing a beat, but most can't, and there's no way to know if Hays could.     Remember, Nick Markakis had a good rookie season, but he was basically helpless for his first 2.5 months while making that jump.

[Sessh]

49 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

And by OPS+ (87) this is Trumbo's worst season, offense is up compared to 2014.  

Uh huh, but both are below average and both are really bad seasons. The point is he has played this badly before and it shouldn't be surprising considering how much he was valued by the teams he has played for. That is to say he wasn't valued much at all and now, we have people on here suggesting we do a salary dump on him as well. Also not a surprise. Trumbo isn't a very good overall ballplayer. We would have been better off with Kim in left and Mancini in right than to have Trumbo/Smith in right field.

Also, agree about Hays. I don't know why people get so worked up about guys doing well on the farm. It is inferior pitching/hitting they are facing and is nothing compared to what they will see in the majors. I want to see a solid season in the majors at the very least before I start getting excited about someone on the farm. Sure, it's encouraging to see guys doing well, but it doesn't mean anything if they can't replicate that success at the highest level. Most can't. We really won't know if Hays can since it's more important to have him on the bench instead of on the field.

 

[Pat Kelly]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Maybe, but you're taking a leap of faith to reach that conclusion.   I'm a huge Hays fan, and really hope he's our RF for the next decade, but hitting AA pitching is not nearly the same as hitting major league pitching.    Some guys can make that jump without missing a beat, but most can't, and there's no way to know if Hays could.     Remember, Nick Markakis had a good rookie season, but he was basically helpless for his first 2.5 months while making that jump.

Andrew Benintendi made the leap last year from AA and forced his way into an OF that already included JBJ and Mookie Betts.   Saw enough last year to start this year and be touted as ROY candidate before Aaron Judge went alll "Damn Yankees."   Hayes has come up on the back of a tremendous offensive year with high grades as RF with a plus arm.   Not as many walks but more power than Markakis.  Trend is young players, many succeed today right away.   Our understanding is AH was brought up to help but if he doesn't play he can't.   If Smith were on fire or Rickard on a hot streak or Trumbo was hitting like last year then no issue.   The problem is RF igenerally has been a weak spot defensively and of late offensively.   That justifies giving Hayes more of a chance. 

[eddie83]

Rickard starting instead of Hays.  

Does Buck want Dan to quit? 

If you are giving a regular a day off how can it be Joey over Hays? 

I'm sure it is a good experience for Austin to be around a big league team and not have to worry about that next year. That said why exactly was he called up? 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Pat Kelly said:

Andrew Benintendi made the leap last year from AA and forced his way into an OF that already included JBJ and Mookie Betts.   Saw enough last year to start this year and be touted as ROY candidate before Aaron Judge went alll "Damn Yankees."   Hayes has come up on the back of a tremendous offensive year with high grades as RF with a plus arm.   Not as many walks but more power than Markakis.  Trend is young players, many succeed today right away.   Our understanding is AH was brought up to help but if he doesn't play he can't.   If Smith were on fire or Rickard on a hot streak or Trumbo was hitting like last year then no issue.   The problem is RF igenerally has been a weak spot defensively and of late offensively.   That justifies giving Hayes more of a chance. 

Nitpick: it's Hays, not Hayes.     

I'd have zero problem starting Hays over Rickard, who has a .636 OPS for the year, .567 since July 1.    It's almost impossible that Hays would do worse than that.    It's entirely possible, and more than 50% likely, that he'd hit worse than Smith.

And yes, as I said there are guys who make the jump from AA successfully.   Benintendi is a good example.   I'd still say he's the exception and not the rule.     And Benintendi is a much more disciplined hitter than Hays, so I'd worry that Hays will find the adjustment harder.     

[Pat Kelly]

FWIW I agree with virtually every other decision Buck has made.    Getting the most out a bad rotation, managing around Bundy innings,  Tillman's issues, pairing with catchers or not,  coping with injuries and an overtaxed BP.    He is willing to pull pitchers earlier with a deeper staff and the last few losses are more about offense than pitching.   He has adjusted the lineup moving Jones and Machado around,  Beckham, Schoop and Mancini up,  Trumbo and Davis down,  rotated the catchers well playing the hot hand.  Davis still brings value at 1B even when he is barely hitting.  Playing Smith only against RHP using Gentry and Rickard as late inning defensive replacements,  coaxing Mancini into a decent LF who seems to keep improving.  Team has come back and won many "lost" games and has a dominant win% in extra innings.  

But I do not understand what he is up to with Hays,  playing Trumbo last night,  starting Rickard over Hays,  not rotating Pedro in there against RHP, not giving Trumbo a break etc.  when he is not hitting.   I would even understand if he started JJ to give Beckham a rest - he could always PH late.    He is either worried about or lacks confidence in Hays and that seems to indicate there is some disconnect with the front office decision to call him up.