Early 2018 predictions/expectations

[billw76]

I know its way too early to predict much with the roster nowhere close to being completed, but I'm curious to see what everyone's outlook for 2018 is.

I think offensively not much will change on the roster, the major pieces are in place and not much will be added, and I don't think any major trades will happen before the deadline.

Pitching is by far the biggest need, specifically SP. Let's say we add Chatwood and one of Lynn/Cobb to fill 2 spots in the rotation and bring back Tillman or someone similar to fill another slot, will it be enough? 

The wild card teams won 85 and 91 games last season, can this team improve 10-15 games with those kind of additions? 

[twinedenter]

Yes with those 2 additions, it would be. However, as been Duquette's history, a half-hearted effort of Vargas and Chacin won't cut it.

The offense could really use some OBP/Speed type players as well. We have been saying that for 3-4 years now. Smith, is an example of the half-hearted effort I expect to see with this rotation disaster. 

The issue is that we need so much pitching. Allowing the roster to get to this point is the main issue and one that I don't believe can be solved this off-season. 

 

 

[wildcard]

I don't believe the O's can get Cobb or Lynn.

Chatwood, Vargas and maybe Tillman on an incentive basis.  Probably add a backup SS/UIF.

The O's are a last place team right now.   They are adding rookies that have a history of high OBP.  If they can bring that to the majors at a 335 to 340 rate they can help. 

The problem with contending is that the Yankees, RedSox, Indians and Twins all have better teams.  Especially if the Twins sign Darvish which they are projected to do.

[Frobby]

It all boils down to how we address the 3 open spots in our rotation.    We made the playoffs in 2016 with a below average rotation, so it’s not like the pitching has to be spectacular, but it needs to be significantly better than last year.   And, we’d need some other things to go our way.     At this point in the offseason, it’s simply too early to guess what our rotation will look like, so I’m not ready to have an opinion on our playoff chances.   

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It all boils down to how we address the 3 open spots in our rotation.    We made the playoffs in 2016 with a below average rotation, so it’s not like the pitching has to be spectacular, but it needs to be significantly better than last year.   And, we’d need some other things to go our way.     At this point in the offseason, it’s simply too early to guess what our rotation will look like, so I’m not ready to have an opinion on our playoff chances.   

The Yankees and/or the  Red Sox were down for many years including 2016.  That is not true anymore.

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The Yankees and/or the  Red Sox were down for many years including 2016.  That is not true anymore.

The Yankees also took advantage of their down year in 2016 to significantly restock their system,

At the deadline (and the august deadline) they acquired...

Gleyber Torres

Clint Frazier 

Adam Warren

Ben Heller

Tyler Clippard

Justus Sheffield

Dillion Tate

Stephen Tarpley

Jio Orozco

Juan De Paula

Billy McKinney

JP Feyereisen

Tito Polo

Nick Green

Erik Swanson

Rashad Crawford

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The Yankees and/or the  Red Sox were down for many years including 2016.  That is not true anymore.

I agree with your point that we probably have a slightly tougher hill to climb in 2018 than we did in 2016, in terms of the AL East competition.   

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, billw76 said:

I know its way too early to predict much with the roster nowhere close to being completed, but I'm curious to see what everyone's outlook for 2018 is.

I think offensively not much will change on the roster, the major pieces are in place and not much will be added, and I don't think any major trades will happen before the deadline.

Pitching is by far the biggest need, specifically SP. Let's say we add Chatwood and one of Lynn/Cobb to fill 2 spots in the rotation and bring back Tillman or someone similar to fill another slot, will it be enough? 

The wild card teams won 85 and 91 games last season, can this team improve 10-15 games with those kind of additions? 

I confidently predict we will finish dead last in the AL East. The team needs to rebuild, and leadership is too stupid to do what needs to be done. In order to actually compete you need to add a #1, #3, and # 5 starter to the mix and simply are unwilling to make the necessary financial commitment to get it done. Even if they were it would be a difficult task considering what is available.

[Aristotelian]

55 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I confidently predict we will finish dead last in the AL East. The team needs to rebuild, and leadership is too stupid to do what needs to be done. In order to actually compete you need to add a #1, #3, and # 5 starter to the mix and simply are unwilling to make the necessary financial commitment to get it done. Even if they were it would be a difficult task considering what is available.

Last place would be a good outcome. Assuming we are out of it by the all star break, we would likely blow up the team and get something back for Manny and AJ, and maybe even O'Day or Trumbo if they are doing well.

My fear is that it will be a repeat of last year and we will be .500 or so at the break, we will hold on to Manny until the bitter end, trade some prospects for pieces that ultimately don't help us, and still come up short with nothing to show for it except a draft pick.

[billw76]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I confidently predict we will finish dead last in the AL East. The team needs to rebuild, and leadership is too stupid to do what needs to be done. In order to actually compete you need to add a #1, #3, and # 5 starter to the mix and simply are unwilling to make the necessary financial commitment to get it done. Even if they were it would be a difficult task considering what is available.

Unfortunately I think last place may be the outcome. I just don't see a 10-15 game swing coming from the additions the front office will probably make. 

I think it's time to rebuild myself, and I don't think Duquette or anyone else in the FO sees that, I think they are dead set that with an addition of Chatwood and someone similar this team will compete in 18.

 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, billw76 said:

Unfortunately I think last place may be the outcome. I just don't see a 10-15 game swing coming from the additions the front office will probably make. 

I think it's time to rebuild myself, and I don't think Duquette or anyone else in the FO sees that, I think they are dead set that with an addition of Chatwood and someone similar this team will compete in 18.

 

I could be wrong, but I think Duquette sees the need for a rebuild, I just don't think he has ownership or managerial support for it (managerial support shouldn't matter much, but it does on this team).  Also, he doesn't have much leverage to push for it given his contract being up at the end of the year. 

[El Gordo]

6 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

I could be wrong, but I think Duquette sees the need for a rebuild, I just don't think he has ownership or managerial support for it (managerial support shouldn't matter much, but it does on this team).  Also, he doesn't have much leverage to push for it given his contract being up at the end of the year. 

We are in a similar spot to when Gillick tried to rebuild. We had a bunch of aging expensive stars and a thin farm system.. Gillick had to resign. I doubt PA has changed that much.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

We are in a similar spot to when Gillick tried to rebuild. We had a bunch of aging expensive stars and a thin farm system.. Gillick had to resign. I doubt PA has changed that much.

The farm system isn’t that thin right now, thankfully.    Not loaded, but middle of the pack and some nice talent at the top.   

[tntoriole]

The lack of building for the future will really catch up with us if we yet again postpone rebuilding for another “run” like last year’s run and 2015’s “run”.  Manny should have been moved last winter as well as Zach.  Now, frankly, it makes zero difference because we will be getting virtually nothing back  if they are dealt now or at the deadline.  

Duquette and Buck both just want to keep this ship afloat long enough to get out after this year without too much egg on their faces, but another last place finish in a row followed by years of last place after they leave will point out how misguided their win now strategy has been.  

I am very discouraged that this organization is really going in the wrong direction, again.  

And even when we talk on this board about signing Chatwood or Cobb or Lynn or Vargas...well, I saw at least 8 other team boards all proposing the pursuit of these same 4 pitchers.   And at least a half a dozen boards proposing going after Tillman as a buy low option.   

 

[jamalshw]

The 2018 season should be a rebuilding year, but it won't be. If they make one last run, they should acquire three major league starters plus some more depth options for Triple-A along with a bat along the lines of Jon Jay.

If the Orioles sign (or otherwise acquire) a good OBP OFer (preferably to play CF with Jones moving to RF--which won't happen, but one can dream) and can add a starter that profiles as a No.2 (Cobb/Lynn), one that profiles as a No.3/4 and one more that's more of buy low option with upside (Tillman/Mikolas)...then, the O's can compete. If not (and that's one heck of an offseason, this team will be fighting it out with Toronto and Tampa Bay in the bottom of the division a la the early 2000s.