NEED one of the Big Three Pitchers Left

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

50m limit only effect the draft choices received by a club losing a player who rejected a Qualifying offer.  It does not effect the teams signing a FA.

Seems like really odd logic, since the team losing the player can’t control what another team pays him, while the team acquiring the player can.   Or maybe that’s the reason for the structure.   

[pastorfan]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's are positioned well to get either Cobb or Lynn.   I don't know if they will do it but the elements are in place for one of those guys to fall to them.  

I think the Brewers probably sign Cobb or Lynn.  The Phillies are positioned to sign  Arrieta.   The O's seem to have to money to sign one of these guys in their budget.  They can afford to offer 3/45 with a vesting option on a fourth year.    Whether that comes to pass, I don't know.

How do option years factor into the 50 mm figure and draft picks? 

[Beef Supreme]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

50m limit only affect the draft choices received by a club losing a player who rejected a Qualifying offer.  It does not affect the teams signing a FA.

FTFY
 

2 hours ago, Dark Helmet said:

How does it work when surrendering a pick? I know it's if it's over $50m you lose it. But is that guaranteed money? What if a team signs the player to $50m then adds easy to reach incentives? Do you still lose the pick if it' over $50m but not guaranteed?

Incentives are not counted, regardless of how easy they may be to attain.

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Seems like really odd logic, since the team losing the player can’t control what another team pays him, while the team acquiring the player can.   Or maybe that’s the reason for the structure.   

The logic is, it a player signs for less than $50M, any team could realistically have signed that player at that price (including his former team) as such the former team shouldn't be compensated for not resigning him. I think the protection is in place to compensate for situations where the original team is simply outbid and to protect smaller market teams who are more likely to be outbid for the top tier free agents. 

[Dark Helmet]

I personally believe before Cobb or Lynn sign for multiple years at a huge discount, they would sign 1 year deals to go to a really good team in a pitchers park. I could see both in CA.  Dodgers and Angels.

[Bahama O's Fan]

While not one of the big three, Liriano is gone.

[theobird]

44 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

While not one of the big three, Liriano is gone.

I thought we might go after Liriano, so in my opinion we are done. No way do I see us in on any of Lynn, Cobb or Arrieta.

 

[Bahama O's Fan]

How soon would we have to sign one of these guys to have them already for week one?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

How soon would we have to sign one of these guys to have them already for week one?

Duquette said March 1.

[oriolediehard]

The O's desperately need a solid ace.  It looks obvious money is more important than winning.  It is the American Capitalism way.

[mdbdotcom]

32 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

The O's desperately need a solid ace.  It looks obvious money is more important than winning.  It is the American Capitalism way.

A solid ace? Not a liquid ace? How about an ace who can morph between forms, sometimes being solid, and liquid at others? That would be cool.

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

A solid ace? Not a liquid ace? How about an ace who can morph between forms, sometimes being solid, and liquid at others? That would be cool.

I’m sure there’s a few gaseous aces around....

[Frobby]

On 2/20/2018 at 4:07 PM, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Orioles basically have to draw blackjack for 5+ consecutive hands to have a legit chance.  Can it happen?  Yes.  Likely to happen?  No.

Sign Cobb or Lynn, the mountain to climb gets smaller.  That seems unlikely as of today.  

 

 

On 2/20/2018 at 4:28 PM, Frobby said:

I think that’s probably too dramatic an analogy.    The odds of drawing five blackjacks in a row are about 3.2 million to 1.     I’d say the odds of the Orioles making the playoffs are more like 50-1.     

Vegas actually thinks our chances are better: 12-1 to win the division and 40-1 to win the AL pennant.   http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2018/02/the-latest-odds-and-cortes-with-a-nice-debut.html

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Vegas actually thinks our chances are better: 12-1 to win the division and 40-1 to win the AL pennant.   http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2018/02/the-latest-odds-and-cortes-with-a-nice-debut.html

That is not how it works.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is not how it works.

If you are drawing a distinction between what someone who works for the oddsmakers actually thinks and what the oddsmakers think will balance the wagers (and leave room for the house to take its cut), then fine.    Otherwise, please explain.  

If it’s the former: to me, that still means the public thinks our odds are much better than most posters here (including me) seem to think. And by and large, the public aren’t Orioles fans.