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NEED one of the Big Three Pitchers Left

Bahama O's Fan

By Bahama O's Fan
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Grt 2BA FL Gator

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, now said:

The optimist in me wants to argue, Wait...

- What if only one of Davis and Trumbo bounces back with 40 HRs?

- What if Gausman finally has a great year, Bundy and Cashner are average for them, Tillman regains his mechanics, and Cortes lives up to his MiL record?

- What if O'Day pitches like he can and Britton is back by June?

- What if Hays makes an impact, and Mancini continues to outperform his doubters?

- What if Manny and Schoop, now in their prime, both turn it up a notch and vie for MVP honors?

None of those is a "miracle" stretch to imagine. But I guess (says the realist in me, agreeing with you) to expect all those reasonable scenarios to come about at once, amounts to a miracle.

All that is possible. I just hate that we won't boost our chances from "these 5-10 things need to go really well to get a wild card spot" to "we should be penciled in as contenders from day 1".

It feels like that big of a difference to me and it has everything to do with SP. There are guys out there to be had. Getting 4 out of 5 decent enough starts takes a lot of pressure off your team.. And having depth in case one of your guys inevitably goes down, takes pressure of your team. 

Yet we won't venture into the SP waters, all because one of our medium term contracts with a pitcher didn't go that well. 

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, now said:

The optimist in me wants to argue, Wait...

- What if only one of Davis and Trumbo bounces back with 40 HRs?

- What if Gausman finally has a great year, Bundy and Cashner are average for them, Tillman regains his mechanics, and Cortes lives up to his MiL record?

- What if O'Day pitches like he can and Britton is back by June?

- What if Hays makes an impact, and Mancini continues to outperform his doubters?

- What if Manny and Schoop, now in their prime, both turn it up a notch and vie for MVP honors?

None of those is a "miracle" stretch to imagine. But I guess (says the realist in me, agreeing with you) to expect all those reasonable scenarios to come about at once, amounts to a miracle.

Scenarios like this are sort of like playing the lottery.   Yes, there is a single, narrow, path where all the right pieces  do fall exactly right and we win the lottery.  As lottery buyers often find out, there are many, many more ways for any one of those pieces to not fall the right way  (and a bunch more that go south that we don't see coming, injury,  unexpected regression, etc.)    So yeah, could we win?   Sure.   And I think I am going to win each time when I buy a ticket too.  

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OsFanSinceThe80s Hangout Grand Counsel

OsFanSinceThe80s

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28 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Scenarios like this are sort of like playing the lottery.   Yes, there is a single, narrow, path where all the right pieces  do fall exactly right and we win the lottery.  As lottery buyers often find out, there are many, many more ways for any one of those pieces to not fall the right way  (and a bunch more that go south that we don't see coming, injury,  unexpected regression, etc.)    So yeah, could we win?   Sure.   And I think I am going to win each time when I buy a ticket too.  

Orioles basically have to draw blackjack for 5+ consecutive hands to have a legit chance.  Can it happen?  Yes.  Likely to happen?  No.

Sign Cobb or Lynn, the mountain to climb gets smaller.  That seems unlikely as of today.  

 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Orioles basically have to draw blackjack for 5+ consecutive hands to have a legit chance.  Can it happen?  Yes.  Likely to happen?  No.

 

I think that’s probably too dramatic an analogy.    The odds of drawing five blackjacks in a row are about 3.2 million to 1.     I’d say the odds of the Orioles making the playoffs are more like 50-1.     

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s probably too dramatic an analogy.    The odds of drawing five blackjacks in a row are about 3.2 million to 1.     I’d say the odds of the Orioles making the playoffs are more like 50-1.     

The odds of the O's signing another starting pitcher to a 4 year or longer deal this offseason would be closer to 3.2 million to 1.

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Beef Supreme Hangout Veteran Council

Beef Supreme

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On Tuesday, February 20, 2018 at 4:28 PM, Frobby said:

I think that’s probably too dramatic an analogy.    The odds of drawing five blackjacks in a row are about 3.2 million to 1.     I’d say the odds of the Orioles making the playoffs are more like 50-1.     

That sounds too high. I'd put 20 bucks on that.

You do mean making the WC game, right? Or the ALDS?

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mdbdotcom Hangout Grand Counsel

mdbdotcom

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4 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

I think the Orioles are a playoff team if Dylan Bundy is an ace. I really think that’s all this team needs to plant themselves there. 

And all he needs to become an ace are the three or four ticks of his fastball that never appeared again after his Tommy John surgery. Might be best to learn happy with him as a consistent and dependable #3.

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pdiddy Veteran All-Star

pdiddy

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26 minutes ago, OsEatAlEast said:

I'm torn between Lynn and Cobb. Both pitch well against the AL East. Much smaller sample size for Lynn of course. Cobb has done well against all AL East teams and the only one Lynn has done bad against is the O's.

I like Lynn personally and coming from a good organization I worry less about the league switch. Cobb has the track record and familiarity which is nice.  A tossup for me, but either one would make the O's a serious contender IMO. 

Archer would be the "let's go to war" move, but I honestly have no idea what a reasonable trade offer would be for him. The Rays would ask for the world I think.

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

Posted
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40 minutes ago, OsEatAlEast said:

I'm torn between Lynn and Cobb. Both pitch well against the AL East. Much smaller sample size for Lynn of course. Cobb has done well against all AL East teams and the only one Lynn has done bad against is the O's.

Torn for whom?  The Twins?   Could your you imagine what we would offer at this point?  5 million dollar one year deal with million of that difered and a chance of 5 million more incentives that would be paid in 2023.

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