I'm feeling more optimistic about 2018

[Spy Fox]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

The pitching can be better.  Will it be leaps and bounds better?  Hard to say.  

While the focus around here has been pitching (rightfully so), the offense isn't great shakes either.  Prone to score 10 runs one night and 2 the next.  Awesome hot streaks followed by team long collective slumps because no one gets on base.  

I could be wrong, but I think someone around here looked into this one time and found that our offense hasn't actually been much streakier or more boom-or-bust than average. Props if anyone can remember the details or call that up.

[Redskins Rick]

10 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I could be wrong, but I think someone around here looked into this one time and found that our offense hasn't actually been much streakier or more boom-or-bust than average. Props if anyone can remember the details or call that up.

Sounds like a Drungo research and post.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Sounds like a Drungo research and post.

Bet it was Frobby.

 

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Bet it was Frobby.

 

LOL, you know, now that you said that, I bet you are right.

[Frobby]

Just now, Spy Fox said:

I could be wrong, but I think someone around here looked into this one time and found that our offense hasn't actually been much streakier or more boom-or-bust than average. Props if anyone can remember the details or call that up.

I think I was the one who did it, and I found we really hadn’t been streakier than the average team in 2012-15, but that we were quite streaky in ‘16.    I haven’t done the analysis for ‘17 but I think it would definitely show we were very streaky.    

There was some criticism of my methodology, which basically just looked at variance in monthly performance.    But I couldn’t think of a better way to do it without putting in a ton more work.   

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think I was the one who did it, and I found we really hadn’t been streakier than the average team in 2012-15, but that we were quite streaky in ‘16.    I haven’t done the analysis for ‘17 but I think it would definitely show we were very streaky.    

There was some criticism of my methodology, which basically just looked at variance in monthly performance.    But I couldn’t think of a better way to do it without putting in a ton more work.   

Sometimes the juice ain't worth the squeeze.  

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Sometimes the juice ain't worth the squeeze.  

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2018 Baltimore Orioles.

[tropicos]

We should in all likelihood be better than last year--playoffs (WC) should unsurprisingly be within reach, but not expected at this point. 

Pitching:  

• SP IP, CERA & Buck & Dan's roster management.  Bundy & Gausman aside, I don't think Cashner, Tillman.18 & our SP5 need to be a crazy improvement over Miley, Jimenez & Tillman.17.  Rather, more IP from our starters &  better pitch/game-calling from catchers* should greatly improve our pitching results. Focus on going deeper into games. Focus on calling better games.
  • Welington was a horrible pitch/game-caller in 2017 (and for his entire career). WC is gone, Caleb is the starter--improvement already.  
• Roster wise:: Buck (& Dan) need to make sure not to give any longer-than-necessary leashes to ineffective SPs not named Bundy/Gausman. IMO, it's better to give starts to rookies, AAAA players or decent long-relief pitchers than to extend countless chances to ineffective starters (Jimenez, Tillman.17 & Miley should all have been booted from contention-seeking rosters)
  • Don't feel obligated to keep &/ start players b/c of their salary! ($32m tied up between Jimenez, Miley & Tillman in 2017;;   Currently only $11m guaranteed to Cashner & Tillman for 2018).  Talent-wise, our current bunch should easily match up with any of the 6 prior years' groups, if not already exceed.

*Starters IP & Catchers ERA (per fangraphs)

2017: 846  (SP:  5.5 War.   RP: 2.3 War.)  (CERA-- WC: 5.62.  CJ: 4.23.)

2016: 886 (SP:  9.8 War.   RP: 5.7 War.) (CERA-- MW: 3.98.  CJ: 4.28.)

2015: 915.2 (SP:  9.1 War.   RP: 6.4 War.) (CERA-- MW: 4.38.  CJ: 3.65.)

2014: 953.2 (SP:  9.2 War.   RP: 4.4 War.) (CERA-- MW: 3.88.  CJ: 3.01.)

2013: 939 (SP:  6.8 War.   RP: 3.9 War.) (CERA-- MW: 4.30.)

2012: 937.2 (SP:  10 War.   RP: 6.2 War.) (CERA-- MW: 3.79.)

 

Hitting/Fielding:  The 2017 squad under-performed with no one really over-performing (one exception being Beckham, but even reverting to career averages he'd still be an upgrade over Hardy at the plate). I'd wager we have a better shot at improving (playing to player's career norms) than worsening & taking a step back. However, improvement here means bubkes (nothing) if there are no gains from the collective SP department.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

1 hour ago, tropicos said:

We should in all likelihood be better than last year--playoffs (WC) should unsurprisingly be within reach, but not expected at this point. 

Pitching:  

• SP IP, CERA & Buck & Dan's roster management.  Bundy & Gausman aside, I don't think Cashner, Tillman.18 & our SP5 need to be a crazy improvement over Miley, Jimenez & Tillman.17.  Rather, more IP from our starters &  better pitch/game-calling from catchers* should greatly improve our pitching results. Focus on going deeper into games. Focus on calling better games.
  • Welington was a horrible pitch/game-caller in 2017 (and for his entire career). WC is gone, Caleb is the starter--improvement already.  
• Roster wise:: Buck (& Dan) need to make sure not to give any longer-than-necessary leashes to ineffective SPs not named Bundy/Gausman. IMO, it's better to give starts to rookies, AAAA players or decent long-relief pitchers than to extend countless chances to ineffective starters (Jimenez, Tillman.17 & Miley should all have been booted from contention-seeking rosters)
  • Don't feel obligated to keep &/ start players b/c of their salary! ($32m tied up between Jimenez, Miley & Tillman in 2017;;   Currently only $11m guaranteed to Cashner & Tillman for 2018).  Talent-wise, our current bunch should easily match up with any of the 6 prior years' groups, if not already exceed.

*Starters IP & Catchers ERA (per fangraphs)

2017: 846  (SP:  5.5 War.   RP: 2.3 War.)  (CERA-- WC: 5.62.  CJ: 4.23.)

2016: 886 (SP:  9.8 War.   RP: 5.7 War.) (CERA-- MW: 3.98.  CJ: 4.28.)

2015: 915.2 (SP:  9.1 War.   RP: 6.4 War.) (CERA-- MW: 4.38.  CJ: 3.65.)

2014: 953.2 (SP:  9.2 War.   RP: 4.4 War.) (CERA-- MW: 3.88.  CJ: 3.01.)

2013: 939 (SP:  6.8 War.   RP: 3.9 War.) (CERA-- MW: 4.30.)

2012: 937.2 (SP:  10 War.   RP: 6.2 War.) (CERA-- MW: 3.79.)

 

Hitting/Fielding:  The 2017 squad under-performed with no one really over-performing (one exception being Beckham, but even reverting to career averages he'd still be an upgrade over Hardy at the plate). I'd wager we have a better shot at improving (playing to player's career norms) than worsening & taking a step back. However, improvement here means bubkes (nothing) if there are no gains from the collective SP department.

Awesome post. Thank you. 

[OFFNY]

2 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

 

I could be wrong, but I think someone around here looked into this one time and found that our offense hasn't actually been much streakier or more boom-or-bust than average. Props if anyone can remember the details, or call that up.

 

o

 

It was from December of 2016.

 

 

 

o

[maybenxtyr]

So...on XM they were going team by team and taking the over or under on their projections. They both felt that Baltimore would come under their projected win totals. Even more surprising, or disappointing was they questioned if Baltimore would have the worst record this season. They did agree that would go to the Marlins. 

I think this team could lose 90 games but I also can squint and see maybe 84 or so wins. I was really disappointed in their preparation for that segment. 

Just throwing it out and wondering if anyone else heard this.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

So...on XM they were going team by team and taking the over or under on their projections. They both felt that Baltimore would come under their projected win totals. Even more surprising, or disappointing was they questioned if Baltimore would have the worst record this season. They did agree that would go to the Marlins. 

I think this team could lose 90 games but I also can squint and see maybe 84 or so wins. I was really disappointed in their preparation for that segment. 

Just throwing it out and wondering if anyone else heard this.

I don't think they will finish with a worse record than all the teams that are actively tanking.

[maybenxtyr]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think they will finish with a worse record than all the teams that are actively tanking.

I'm not a "kool-aid" drinker by any stretch, but I believe this team will end up in the middle of the road record wise. That's in just an AL setting or combined.

[ScGO's]

I feel more optimistic IF we keep signing SPs.  There are still a bunch out there worth looking at:

We need to get one of Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn (play of the opt out game for once!)

After that though, a lot of depth signs need to be made.  A few worth signing to MILB deals or 1 year MLBs:
Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, R.A. Dickey, Scott Feldman, John Lackey (what isn't he signed yet?), Francisco Liriano, Jake Peavy, Matt Garza (isn't he hurt?)

Maybe Machado and Schoop go absolutely nuts at the plate this year and anchor a fairly tough line up.  If Trumbo and Davis can mustard up at least .750 OPS seasons, and everyone else holds steady, we should be alright with the line up. 

I wouldn't mind Lucroy.  Rasmus might be enough to fill in in RF, but if CarGo falls to us cheap, do you grab him too?  Or Jay?

I still like the idea of getting a Neil Walker or Brandon Phillips as 3B insurance or super Utility (or make Beckham the super utility).  I only take Mouse if we can get him for one year. 

I also wouldn't mind swooping in and picking up another reliever.  A few interesting names on the board.

If Dan can make some sneaky moves, we could be jumping out of our socks within 2 weeks.  I'd like to see an opening day line up of:

C - Lucroy

1B- Davis

2B - Schoop

SS - Machado

3B - Walker

LF - Mancini

CF - Jones

RF - Rasmus

DH - Trumbo

Bench - Joseph, Santander (to start the season), Jay, Beckham(or make Walker the super sub)

SP - Lynn, Bundy, Gausman, Cashner, Lackey

Middle: Cortes, Tillman

RP: Givens, Brach, O'day, Bleier, Mesa
 

[Moose Milligan]

32 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

"got to admit its getting better..CANT GET NO WORSE"---John Lennon

Hey, speaking of music I watched that Canseco documentary yesterday, it's on Amazon Prime. You did a good job on the music, especially the intro!