Kevin Goldstein's Chat 7/7/08

[Sports Guy]

Goldstein is not the only one.

Entering the year, BA had

Price at 10 and Wieters as 12.

Davis at 17 and Tillman at 67

Beckham was drafted ahead of Matusz on merit.

That leaves Hellickson v JA - which consensus above gives to Hellickson.

Looks to me like it's the Rays across the board - comfortably so.

I like our prospects just fine, but let's be realistic.

1) Lots of rankings in the top 100 that don't hold true right now.

2) Chris Smith went ahead of Kotchman. We could do this all day...Picking where someone was drafted has little to do with anything.

[Stotle]

Same thing they used to say about smallish pitchers, before Pedro, Oswalt, Kazmir, and Lincecum.

Shrug. I've had this debate enough times to know it's a no-win against the "players defy history all the time" approach. I guess it's nice that you brought up small pitchers instead of Cal at SS.

He's excellent behind the plate so i hope he stays there and I hope he stays healthy. The fact is history is against him having a long and productive career at C.

Mauer started to wear down in his third season and Wieters had an extra 3-years of college ball/summer ball before he started his pro career. It's just a lot of squatting for someone that size.

Man, he is impressive behind the plate, though. Great footwork and a beautiful arm; good receiver. I hope I'm very wrong about him staying there.

[Three Run Homer]

I agree that I'd rather have Tampa's prospects overall, but to say that Price is automatically a better prospect than Weiters just because he was drafted higher is ridiculous. Weiters was widely regarded as the best prospect in last year's draft, but he fell to the O's because of signability considerations. Price has pitched very well, but Weiters has hit just as well. I'd love to have either one, but all else equal I'll take the position prospect over the pitching prospect any day because of injury risk.

Similarly, you could find plenty of scouts and pundits who thought Matusz could be plausibly drafted ahead of Beckham in this year's draft, even though there were no signability concerns with either one.

[hoosiers]

1) Lots of rankings in the top 100 that don't hold true right now.

2) Chris Smith went ahead of Kotchman. We could do this all day...Picking where someone was drafted has little to do with anything.

Per usual, you play conveniently with the trust.

Kotchman was not going to sign anywhere besides Anaheim, but you can imply otherwise if you like.

Are you hinting that Beckham was not taken ahead of Matusz on merit? Do you have a source that rated Matusz ahead of Beckham?

[Mackus]

Joe Mauer had knee problems right from the getgo. I believe he had knee problems as early as his first year. We've had this argument before. Do you really have enough data on tall catchers vs. short catchers to say that one type wears down more than another? You shrug and say that I'm using the exceptioni to make my argument. Isn't that just what you are doing. Joe Mauer is your tall catcher example? Who are the rest? BTW, what's your cutoff for tall catchers? 6'3, 6'4, 6'5?

Sandy Alomar was 6' 5" and played 20 years.

But, he only played over 100 games in 4 of them.

Man, Sandy Alomar had a weird career.

He made 6 All-Star teams, in those seasons he had OPS+ of: 108, 47, 74, 75, 128, and 59. He only had 5 seasons with 300+ ABs.

[Moose Milligan]

Really bummed about the Rowell tidbit at the end. I know it's way early to call him a bust, but he's certainly headed that way...

Sandy Alomar was 6' 5" and played 20 years.

But, he only played over 100 games in 4 of them.

Man, Sandy Alomar had a weird career.

He made 6 All-Star teams, in those seasons he had OPS+ of: 108, 47, 74, 75, 128, and 59. He only had 5 seasons with 300+ ABs.

Agreed. Alomar never played up to his hype.

As far as moving Wieters goes, I'd move him at the first sign of knee problems. His bat is too valuable to have it wasted by sitting him on the DL with catchers injuries.

[Stotle]

As far as moving Wieters goes, I'd move him at the first sign of knee problems. His bat is too valuable to have it wasted by sitting him on the DL with catchers injuries.

Yeah, the question will be whether Wieters's bat is valuable enough that 150 or so games on average at first is worth more than 120 or so on average at catcher. We actually broke all of this out once in a thread already, but I don't remember where -- probably a Buster Posey discussion.

[McNulty]

Yeah, the question will be whether Wieters's bat is valuable enough that 150 or so games on average at first is worth more than 120 or so on average at catcher. We actually broke all of this out once in a thread already, but I don't remember where -- probably a Buster Posey discussion.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63253

I think it was this one. Great thread.

[Stotle]

Joe Mauer had knee problems right from the getgo. I believe he had knee problems as early as his first year. We've had this argument before. Do you really have enough data on tall catchers vs. short catchers to say that one type wears down more than another? You shrug and say that I'm using the exceptioni to make my argument. Isn't that just what you are doing. Joe Mauer is your tall catcher example? Who are the rest? BTW, what's your cutoff for tall catchers? 6'3, 6'4, 6'5?

I didn't mean to come off as flippant. Apologies.

I really don't want to do the dance, not because I think it isn't an interesting talk but because I made all of the points continuously while discussing Posey during draft season. This is my full contention in the context of the discussion (which was a comparison to Beckham):

- Wieters ultimate value is derived from his offense, his defense and the fact that his position is catcher.

- Historically, tall catchers have not succeeded (I can't think of any true stars at 6'4 or taller and don't recall discussing any when we turned this topic over earlier this season). This could be for two reasons: 1) they get injured and their careers are shortened or their ability to play is affected, or 2) the normal workload of a catcher prevents them from playing in more than 120 games or so a year.

- If Wieters switches from catcher to 1b, a good amount of this value is lost (plus-defense at the most difficult position on the field) and Beckham is probably the better overall prospect based on the value he brings to his team.

- If Wieters's bat is important enough for BAL to want to have it in the lineup for closer to 150 games than 120, he could conceivably shift to 1b (unless they have a better option there already).

- If Wieters begins to break down under the stress of a ML workload, he could conceivably shift to 1b.

These last two statements would be the situations in which I'd imagine Wieters moving off of catcher. I think the best case for BAL is him catching, so I fully expect him to stay there unless BAL is given a reason to shift him. That said, I think there are to conceivable "reasons" listed directly above.

Crawdaddy did a breakdown of his value, including how many wins he projected to bring to the team in 120, 110 and 100 games. I believe the ultimate findings were that it made the most sense to keep him at catcher for as long as they could and shift him over to 1b when necessary.

[Stotle]

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63253

I think it was this one. Great thread.

That was a really good discussion -- exhausting, but a lot of fun. Only seven months or so before we start getting into it all over again!

[NCRaven]

I didn't mean to come off as flippant. Apologies.

- Historically, tall catchers have not succeeded (I can't think of any true stars at 6'4 or taller and don't recall discussing any when we turned this topic over earlier this season). This could be for two reasons: 1) they get injured and their careers are shortened or their ability to play is affected, or 2) the normal workload of a catcher prevents them from playing in more than 120 games or so a year.

- If Wieters switches from catcher to 1b, a good amount of this value is lost (plus-defense at the most difficult position on the field) and Beckham is probably the better overall prospect based on the value he brings to his team.

Historically, coaches have steered taller players away from catching, pointing them toward 1B or corner outfield positions. The pool of tall pitchers to consider and evaluate is due in large part to this built in bias on the part of baseball coaches.

Wieters bat was as good as any in the Carolina League. He didn't just lead catchers in all of the major offensive stats, he was in the top 2 or 3 overall in nearly every important category. And, he's certainly athletic enough to make the switch to 1B if needed. I think he may be the exception to the rule when it comes to players losing value when they move out from behind the plate.

[Stotle]

Historically, coaches have steered taller players away from catching, pointing them toward 1B or corner outfield positions. The pool of tall pitchers to consider and evaluate is due in large part to this built in bias on the part of baseball coaches.

Wieters bat was as good as any in the Carolina League. He didn't just lead catchers in all of the major offensive stats, he was in the top 2 or 3 overall in nearly every important category. And, he's certainly athletic enough to make the switch to 1B if needed. I think he may be the exception to the rule when it comes to players losing value when they move out from behind the plate.

Good post, on all counts. Tall players have undoubtedly been pushed to other positions. He is definitely hitting for more power than I thought he would as a pro, so far. As far as rating his overall value compared to other prospects, moving him to 1b would likely drop him from the top 5 overall MiLers. What he does behind the plate is just too valuable to disregard the loss inherent in moving him to 1b.

I agree his bat looks like it is good enough to play as above-average at 1b.

[Hallas]

Historically, coaches have steered taller players away from catching, pointing them toward 1B or corner outfield positions. The pool of tall pitchers to consider and evaluate is due in large part to this built in bias on the part of baseball coaches.

Wieters bat was as good as any in the Carolina League. He didn't just lead catchers in all of the major offensive stats, he was in the top 2 or 3 overall in nearly every important category. And, he's certainly athletic enough to make the switch to 1B if needed. I think he may be the exception to the rule when it comes to players losing value when they move out from behind the plate.

I think he should be a right fielder. You waste the cannon attached to his arm at first base.

I think the reason that tall players are steered away from catcher is because, if you have the arm to be a catcher and you're 6'4" or taller, you are slotted for pitching.

[Stotle]

I think he should be a right fielder. You waste the cannon attached to his arm at first base.

I think the reason that tall players are steered away from catcher is because, if you have the arm to be a catcher and you're 6'4" or taller, you are slotted for pitching.

Another really good post -- younger kids with size and arm strength do tend to get pushed towards pitching.

Wieters doesn't have the footspeed to be an OF.

[McNulty]

Another really good post -- younger kids with size and arm strength do tend to get pushed towards pitching.

Wieters doesn't have the footspeed to be an OF.

Well, with his big cannon, and if he has a good enough glove to play at first, then I think third would be worth a shot before RF.