Is tonight, Kevin Gausman's last start, as an Oriole?

[MurphDogg]

Just now, connja said:

I know this site loves WAR - I don't understand it all that well, but looks like KG has a 2.0 WAR this year vs. .4 for Archer.  Career numbers are similar.  

rWAR vs. fWAR. Fangraphs thinks Archer is much more valuable than Baseball Reference does. Fangraphs has it at 1.7 to 1.1 in Archer's favor this season. That is a hell of a difference in the two sites.

[MurphDogg]

Just now, bpilktree67 said:

Since 2014 when Gausman joined the Orioles he has been with more WAR then Archer and  is younger.  The extra year helps archer but numbers are similar over this years and Gausman is two years younger.  If the year both has three years it would be tough call imo maybe facing Gausman because of age.

Check out their fWAR. Archer's ERA is .4 runs lower, his k/rate is better, his k/bb rate is better, his WHIP is better, his h/9 and his HR/9 is better. If you think Archer is going to fall off a cliff and be a liability at age 32, then so be it, but I would disagree.

[bpilktree67]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I would love to take a bet on their future performance on the Archer side if you think they are about equal. Rest of this season, next season, next two seasons, name the terms.

Gausman since being put in as full time rotation in 2016 has a war of  8.1 while Archer is 3.4.  Those numbers show it is not even close between those two lately.  Gausman is 2 years younger as well.  If contracts were equal the numbers show Gausman would be who you go after.

[MurphDogg]

Just now, bpilktree67 said:

Gausman since being put in as full time rotation in 2016 has a war of  8.1 while Archer is 3.4.  Those numbers show it is not even close between those two lately.  Gausman is 2 years younger as well.  If contracts were equal the numbers show Gausman would be who you go after.

I don't know what Baseball Reference WAR numbers see in Gausman but Fangraphs disagrees and so do more traditional ratio stats. Fangraphs has Archer ahead of Gausman in WAR every season from 2016-2018.

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I would love to take a bet on their future performance on the Archer side if you think they are about equal. Rest of this season, next season, next two seasons, name the terms.

I'll take that bet, bWAR (since it's ERA based) over the next 3 seasons.

[connja]

So while we can agree to disagree here, based on the arguments for both sides you could assume they would command similar haul if traded in the next couple days.  Will be interesting to see if Archer goes first.

[MurphDogg]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

I'll take that bet, bWAR (since it's ERA based) over the next 3 seasons.

Archer has a lower ERA from 2016-18, so I'm not sure why he is getting killed in rWAR. If someone could explain why Archer's rWAR is so much lower, I would really appreciate it.

[bpilktree67]

Does Gausman get a real center fielder in the bet as welll.  Gausman has pitched this year and past  with Adam Jones in center Archer has Kevin Kiermeir in center.  

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

Archer has a lower ERA from 2016-18, so I'm not sure why he is getting killed in rWAR. If someone could explain why Archer's rWAR is so much lower, I would really appreciate it.

Park factors? A 4 ERA in Tampa is not the same thing as a 4 ERA in Baltimore.

I don't think Gausman is better than Archer now but with the aging curve, it's close enough that I'd take the younger guy with the lower effort delivery to produce more value over an extended time period. 

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, bpilktree67 said:

Does Gausman get a real center fielder in the bet as welll.  Gausman has pitched this year and past  with Adam Jones in center Archer has Kevin Kiermeir in center.  

Although Gausman probably had better infield defense, right?

[bpilktree67]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Although Gausman probably had better infield defense, right?

He had the worst SS in the league this year.  The Orioles have been playing outfields with jones and two first baseman in Trumo and Mancini the last few years.  The Orioles defense has not been good for couple years now.  They have had near the bottom range factor.

[MurphDogg]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Park factors? A 4 ERA in Tampa is not the same thing as a 4 ERA in Baltimore.

I don't think Gausman is better than Archer now but with the aging curve, it's close enough that I'd take the younger guy with the lower effort delivery to produce more value over an extended time period. 

4.10 for Archer vs. 4.25 for Gausman since 2016

8.2 rWAR for Gausman vs. 3.7 rWAR for Archer since 2016

Archer has thrown 15 more innings.

Baseball Reference adjusts ERA+ for park factors, by which they have Gausman at 101 and Archer at 99 since 2016. That doesn't seem significant enough for all of that difference.

[MurphDogg]

Just now, bpilktree67 said:

He had the worst SS in the league this year.  The Orioles have been playing outfields with jones and two first baseman in Trumo and Mancini the last few years.  The Orioles defense has not been good for couple years now.  They have had near the bottom range factor.

Yeah, the outfield defense has been weak for a few years and the infield defense got a lot worse since Machado moved to short.

[drjohnnyfeva]

We can only hope that the FO has realized their mistake with not dealing Manny sooner and get this over with whilst we can still get major return.

[25 Nuggets]

26 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

We can only hope that the FO has realized their mistake with not dealing Manny sooner and get this over with whilst we can still get major return.

They can still get a major return in the offseason with 2 years of control, provided Gausman does not collapse in August/September.

My guess is they're focusing on Jones, Brach, Valencia... the expiring contracts before the trade deadline.