Dylan Bundy 2019

[wildcard]

Two of the 4 runs that Bundy allowed today in his 5 innings should not have scored.   A pop up to shallow left-center field in the 4th with two out would have been caught if Mullins was in center.  The O's outfielders are playing very deep.   

I am not saying that Mullins should be in the majors.  Just that the difference between Mullins and Rickard's range showed up in that play.  It was not Bundy's fault.

 

[tntoriole]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Two of the 4 runs that Bundy allowed today in his 5 innings should not have scored.   A pop up to shallow left-center field in the 4th with two out would have been caught if Mullins was in center.  The O's outfielders are playing very deep.   

I am not saying that Mullins should be in the majors.  Just that the difference between Mullins and Rickard's range showed up in that play.  It was not Bundy's fault.

 

Playing that deep is not Rickard’s call.   Maybe Hyde should be asked if that was a good choice.  Rickard is certainly faster than Jones was last year and Jones catches that ball because Jones always played shallower even if that created other issues.  You can be a track star and not catch balls if you are positioned on the warning track. 

[Frobby]

Bundy's line today was slightly misleading: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 8 K’s.    Two of the runs resulted from poor defense in the third inning.    Kepler doubled on a high fly ball to medium LF that Smith somehow didn’t reach.    xBA: .010.   The next hitter hit a foul pop that Villar dropped for an error, though Bundy eventually got the out.   After another out, a HBP and a walk, Gonzalez hit a high pop to short CF that somehow neither Smith nor Rickard could reach and two runs scored.   xBA: .020.  We can debate whether the fault was the positioning of the outfielders or their poor reaction time, but either way, it was bad luck for Bundy.    That said, the HBP and the walk were completely on Bundy.   

The other two runs came on solo homers on the first pitch of the first and third innings.   The first inning one came on an 89 mph FB that couldn’t have been more down the middle than it was.    The third inning homer was on a FB top of the zone but also center of the plate.    If I’m not mistaken, the double Bundy allowed to lead off the 5th also came on the first pitch of the inning.   Jeez, just have Bundy bury one to start the damned inning!

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Two of the 4 runs that Bundy allowed today in his 5 innings should not have scored.   A pop up to shallow left-center field in the 4th with two out would have been caught if Mullins was in center.  The O's outfielders are playing very deep.   

I am not saying that Mullins should be in the majors.  Just that the difference between Mullins and Rickard's range showed up in that play.  It was not Bundy's fault.

 

Bundy was decent today. The outfield needs better positioning and having  real CF would help.

[Ohfan67]

Bundy is exhibit A that strikeouts per nine may not be as good of a predictor of future success as it has in the past. Bundy's pitching is a highlight reel for the tradeoff/strategy of strike outs versus home runs. His last 200 plus innings have stunk. The brief spurts of success that have been sprinkled over the last three or so years are becoming dim memories for me. He basically had two good months in 2016 and 2017, one good month last year, and he may pitch zero good months this year. Very disappointed for Bundy and for us. If he pitches like this the rest of the year, then I wonder if the O's will tender him a contract for 2020? 

[Frobby]

17 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

Bundy is exhibit A that strikeouts per nine may not be as good of a predictor of future success as it has in the past. Bundy's pitching is a highlight reel for the tradeoff/strategy of strike outs versus home runs. His last 200 plus innings have stunk. The brief spurts of success that have been sprinkled over the last three or so years are becoming dim memories for me. He basically had two good months in 2016 and 2017, one good month last year, and he may pitch zero good months this year. Very disappointed for Bundy and for us. If he pitches like this the rest of the year, then I wonder if the O's will tender him a contract for 2020? 

I don’t think there really is a tradeoff between strikeouts and home runs or there is a strategy of going for strikeouts that is going to result in allowing more homers. Simply put. Bundy gets strikeouts when he makes good pitches to good locations, and he allows homers when he makes bad pitches to bad locations.    It’s not like he’s trying to throw bad pitches to bad locations, but it’s happening, a lot.    His command took a bad step backwards somewhere along the line last year.  

[Ohfan67]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think there really is a tradeoff between strikeouts and home runs or there is a strategy of going for strikeouts that is going to result in allowing more homers. Simply put. Bundy gets strikeouts when he makes good pitches to good locations, and he allows homers when he makes bad pitches to bad locations.    It’s not like he’s trying to throw bad pitches to bad locations, but it’s happening, a lot.    His command took a bad step backwards somewhere along the line last year.  

Totally disagree (although you seem to have flipped the point of view to the pitcher?). There is a strong correlation with power and strike outs. Depending on the stats used to estimate power, r can be as high as .7. The strategy of going for home runs results in more strike outs. I don't see how you can really argue that is incorrect. Many, if not most modern players are not looking to put the ball into play with two strikes, especially against the Bundy's of the baseball world. 

 

Bundy does get some strikeouts when he makes good pitches to good locations, but a sizable percentage of his strikeouts are the result of overly aggressive hitters. That's my opinion from watching games. I'm sure there's a way to test that hypothesis, but I have to work this morning (and am not very good at extracting the relevant data from online sources...baseball ref is about as sophisticated as I get).  

 

Strikeouts per se mean less and less in the evaluation of hitters. It's just a matter of time before they mean less and less in the evaluation of pitchers. I think teams are definitely focused on home runs when they face Bundy. They are happy to let Bundy strike out 10 per nine as long as they are hitting 2 homers per five innings against him. I see very aggressive at bats with two strikes against Bundy. I think Bundy is an early example of what the future looks like for some pitchers...K/9 rates that look great, but terrible in game results. 

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

Totally disagree (although you seem to have flipped the point of view to the pitcher?). There is a strong correlation with power and strike outs. Depending on the stats used to estimate power, r can be as high as .7. The strategy of going for home runs results in more strike outs.

I misunderstood you.   I thought you were discussing a strategic choice by the pitchers.    You seem to be discussing offensive strategy now, but that wasn’t apparent from your post.   

[interloper]

Little PressBox piece from Matt K. on Bundy:

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2019/04/30/whats-going-on-with-orioles-rhp-dylan-bundy

Basically, it's time to try him in the bullpen whenever there's a starter good enough to bump him. It's probably his only chance of having ML success barring some miracle turnaround in fastball velocity/command, which has steadily decreased year-to-year. 

[webbrick2010]

On ‎4‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 2:19 PM, Ohfan67 said:

Bundy is exhibit A that strikeouts per nine may not be as good of a predictor of future success as it has in the past. Bundy's pitching is a highlight reel for the tradeoff/strategy of strike outs versus home runs. His last 200 plus innings have stunk. The brief spurts of success that have been sprinkled over the last three or so years are becoming dim memories for me. He basically had two good months in 2016 and 2017, one good month last year, and he may pitch zero good months this year. Very disappointed for Bundy and for us. If he pitches like this the rest of the year, then I wonder if the O's will tender him a contract for 2020? 

No one will tender him a ML contract next year

Minor League contract with ST invite is the best he can hope for

He no longer has ML stuff

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

No one will tender him a ML contract next year

Minor League contract with ST invite is the best he can hope for

He no longer has ML stuff

I don't know.  Remember last season?  Some team was dumb enough to give Tillman a ML deal.

[OFFNY]

o

 

 

64% of the outs that Bundy recorded (14 out of 22) came via the Strikeout and the Groundout.

 

The unexpected retro performance by Bundy was mildly reminiscent of Brad Bergesen's Complete Game-Shutout against the Rays in May of 2011, 2 years after his excellent 2009 season was cut short by a line drive that broke his leg.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA201105140.shtml

 

 

22 OUTS: ) 9 Groundouts (Including 1 Double Play), 4 Strikeouts, 4 Flyouts, 2 Popouts, 2 Lineouts

 

DYLAN MATTHEW BUNDY ))))))) (vs. D-RAYS, 5/04)

IP:lll7.33

H:llll 3 )(2 Doubles, 1 Single)

R:lllll 0

BB:ll1 ) *

SO:ll4

Pitches: ll)96 )(62)Strikes, )34)Balls)

2019 ERA: ))5.30  ))  35.67 IP  (21 ER) 

2019 WHIP: ))1.318  ))  35.67 IP  (47 H/BB)

2019 OPPONENTS BATTING AVG: )).244 ) (33 for 135)

 

* )) Bundy also had 1 Hit Batsman

 

PITCHES BY INNING

*************************

91 lll(61 llStrikes, lll3 lllBalls)

14 ll(81 llStrikes, lll6 lllBalls)

10 lll(71 llStrikes, lll3 lllBalls)

16 lll(11 llStrikes, lll5 lllBalls)

18 llll(10 llStrikes, lll8 lllBalls)

12 llll(71 llStrikes, lll5 lllBalls)

91 llll(71 llStrikes, lll2 lllBalls)

81 llll(61 llStrikes, lll2 llBallsl) ) **

 

** )) Bundy recorded 1 out before departing in the 8th inning.

 

o

[Uli2001]

Whoa, where did THAT come from?

[Uli2001]

On 4/30/2019 at 4:00 PM, webbrick2010 said:

No one will tender him a ML contract next year

Minor League contract with ST invite is the best he can hope for

He no longer has ML stuff

If the Orioles release him, watch him become an ace on some other team. Just watch.

[Cumberbundy]

Bundy was great, the change up improvement will give him all he needs to be a #3 as he continues to improve the curve & the slider/cutter v lefties. He will be the best starter on the team by a decent margin from May on.