Ryan Mountcastle 2019

[LookinUp]

Trying to think of an ML comp for Mountcastle. The one guy I came up with was Ichiro. A few points.

Ichiro's career BB% was about 6. Mountcastle's BB% last year was about 6. It's 3.5 this year.

Ichiro's career K% was just over 10. Mountcastle 's hovers above 20. 

Ichiro, of course, had speed, was a great outfielder and was one of the best players ever, so it's not the end of the world that Mountcastle doesn't exactly compare. I'm just saying that there is an example of a guy with a very low BB% having great success.

[Flash- bd]

7 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I'm trying to look at it from his point of view - and guessing that wRC+ is a stat more likely to make his eyes glaze over than motivate him - though I could be wrong on that..   

No doubt. But this day and age and with this regime someone no doubt is in his ear about the metrics that matter. And the way the odds are stacked against a player with his K/BB and lack of defensive value. I mean even if he were producing this exact same output at MLB we're talking minimal value. He'd have to have a .900 OPS and 115-120 wRC+ for him to be offering anything but negligible value  in this offensive climate. 

 

I'd assume those in charge of his development are at least letting him begin to think about these sorts of things. 

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ichiro?  Apples and oranges.  Try Adam Jones or Delmon Young.  Young was just 20 years old, 15 walks 65 k's in 86 games. .814 OPS would have ranked 15th if he qualified.  Jones was 21 but had 36 walks and 106 K's in about 400 AB's.  His 967 OPS was 4th.  Mountcastle is closer to Young than Jones.  Jones walked significantly more.  Mountcastle OPS is up to 25th in the League.  Relatively speaking, stats say that he isn't nearly the offensive prospect that Jones or Young were.   He could wind up as good or better than both. I just wouldn't count on it.  When Rutschman walks at least 15 times in his first 30 games perhaps someone will ask him why someone with his talent and pedigree would accept a minor league walk.  Pretty dumb.  Delmon young was a lot smarter.

Starling Marte, more power, less defensive obviously. 

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Good one but Matte was 23 in AAA. He also walked about twice as much (28 walks in 99 games) and his OPS was 7th.  Another good comp.  

He was 22 in AA, 3.8% BB rate. Mountcastle 3.5% in AAA at the same age. Mountcastle had a 6.1% BB in AA last year. 

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Would you agree that all of the comps mentioned didn't all of a sudden learn to take a walk once they got to the majors. I mean, I don't think it's possible for him to walk less than he is now but it seems doubtful that he walks 40-50 times at the ML level.  

He's not going to walk 8-10%, but I wouldn't be surprised at 5-6% in his prime (25-28yo). If he hits for power in the majors (which he will), he will walk more than he is this season. 

[Greg Pappas]

MLBPipeline just updated their Top 100 and has Mountcastle at #70. 

[WalkWithElias]

4-5 yesterday with a double. 

[weams]

Mountcastle is a fine hitter and will produce MLB value.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, weams said:

Mountcastle is a fine hitter and will produce MLB value.

It looks even better than the stats tell you, he's not sneaking groundball doubles down the line or soft liners into the gap, he's blasting the ball, rockets into the wall, dude hits the ball hard. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It looks even better than the stats tell you, he's not sneaking groundball doubles down the line or soft liners into the gap, he's blasting the ball, rockets into the wall, dude hits the ball hard. 

He have that special sound off the bat?

[Legend_Of_Joey]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He have that special sound off the bat?

Yeah, it sounds like "not walking."

[weams]

 

[Luke-OH]

40 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He have that special sound off the bat?

Yeah, not that it means much in terms of predicting major league success, that scouting term mostly comes from separating prospects from suspects in short looks. I would bet he has a number of 110mph+ batted balls though. 

[bobmc]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

He certainly is hot right now.   

E special ly so!  

[weams]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You really go out on a limb sometimes.

So, you think that putting a comp on him as far as what value is important? I'll just tell you, walks or not, he'll have a career. And a lot of the guys on the top 100 won't. He is a good hitter.