Ryan Mountcastle 2019

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Even Marte walked 28 times in 436 PA's in AAA. Almost double Mountcastle's total. But like you mentioned, Marte has stolen over 30 bases 5 different seasons, and has plus range. Mountcastle's just been playing 1B until recently.  

Marte walked 5% in his minor league career, Mountcastle has walked 4.4%. Mountcastle has been a year younger at practically every stop. That's a negligible difference. I don't think anyone was comparing Marte as a fielder to Mountcastle. I mentioned the difference in defensive value when I mentioned Marte. 

[jabba72]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Marte walked 5% in his minor league career, Mountcastle has walked 4.4%. Mountcastle has been a year younger at practically every stop. That's a negligible difference. I don't think anyone was comparing Marte as a fielder to Mountcastle. I mentioned the difference in defensive value when I mentioned Marte. 

I didnt see your original post about Marte. Its definitely an interesting comp because he is clearly a major leaguer who had a very low walk rate in the minors. Mountcastle does have much more power than Marte does. While Marte has a big edge in baserunning and im guessing range in the OF.

[Luke-OH]

48 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Only one thing I'll add.  Marte always averaged right around 1 walk per 4 strikeouts even during his AA season with the 4% walk rate. Mountcastle has been around 1:4 for his career but this year is hanging pretty steady at 1 walk per 7 strikeouts.  He currently has 15 walks and 105 strikeouts.

It would be interesting to see how Marte would have compared if he reached AAA a year earlier. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It would be interesting to see how Marte would have compared if he reached AAA a year earlier. 

At the rate Elias is promoting guys Mountcastle might have to repeat at Norfolk!

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

At the rate Elias is promoting guys Mountcastle might have to repeat at Norfolk!

I wouldn't be surprised if he at least starts 2020 there, maybe comes up in May/June. 

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I wouldn't be surprised if he at least starts 2020 there, maybe comes up in May/June. 

I meant all season so he can work on his walk rate and "dominate" the level.

[orioles22]

I think (hope) he starts the season with the Orioles. He's played at an all-star level in AAA - that ought to be good enough.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I meant all season so he can work on his walk rate and "dominate" the level.

Would it be too soon for Hyde to have Buck back to spring training for a day to talk to some of the guys?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, OrioleDog said:

Would it be too soon for Hyde to have Buck back to spring training for a day to talk to some of the guys?

Didn't do any good last time Buck decided to publicly call out a minor leaguer.

[connja]

How about this for a comp closer to home:  Mark Trumbo.  4% walk rate in the minors.  

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, connja said:

How about this for a comp closer to home:  Mark Trumbo.  4% walk rate in the minors.  

Looks like 7% to me.    

[connja]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Looks like 7% to me.    

Oh fine.  Misread that.   But people can improve once they get to the mlb.  and at 7% you also have Tori Hunter

[jabba72]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Looks like 7% to me.    

Trumbo's walk rate was almost 10% in AAA, so he improved alot as he moved up the levels. I dont know what age his AAA season was. Adam Jones walk rate was around 7.4% in two AAA seasons

[makoman]

If people are talking comps, I posted this in another thread about a month ago with no response so I will just repeat it here, updated with Ks. It's not that encouraging. No idea what his scouting report was like, but Francoeur was BA's #14 prospect before his age 21 season so he was highly thought of by somebody despite the lack of walks. I guess he probably didn't reach his ceiling but I wonder what that would have looked like. He ended up with a career 5.0% BB rate in MLB after being 5.7% in the minors prior to age 22. Mountcastle's career BB rate is 4.4%.

Jeff Francoeur is an interesting comp. They played at the same level at the same age a lot (but 12 years apart, no clue how the leagues actually compare) and actually had similar production.

Age 19, A ball:

Franco: 30 BB (5.3%) 68 K (12.0%) in 567 PAs. 769 OPS.

Mount: 25 BB (5.1%) 95 K (19.4%) in 489 PAs. 745 OPS.

Age 20, A+:

Franco: 22 BB (6.0%) 70 K (19.1%) in 367 PAs. 852 OPS.

Mount: 14 BB (3.7%) 61 K (16.1%) in 379 PAs. 885 OPS.

Age 20, AA:

Franco: 0 BB (0%) 14 K (18.4%) in 76 PAs. 539 OPS.

Mount: 3 BB (1.9%) 35 K (22.0%) in 159 PAs. 605 OPS.

Age 21, AA:

Franco: 21 BB (5.7%) 76 K (20.7%) in 367 PAs. 808 OPS. Plus 11 BB (4.0%) 58 K (21.2%) in 274 PAs w/ 884 OPS at MLB

Mount: 26 BB (6.1%) 79 K (18.5%) in 426 PAs. 806 OPS.

Age 22:

Franco (MLB): 23 BB (3.3%) 132 K (19.2%) in 686 PAs. 742 OPS.

Mount (AAA): 15 BB (3.4%) 105 K (23.6%) in 444 PAs. 852 OPS.

 

Francoeur had a 12 year career but wasn't very valuable. Three years over 3.0 bWAR, but just 6.7 career (being -4.3 over his last 5 years didn't help that). He also seems to have been a better fielder than people think Mountcastle will be, at least when he was younger.

 

[Frobby]

Francoeur is an interesting comp.   one way to look at his career is that he was at 11.0 rWAR through the years he was under team control, then somehow hung on for 5 years.    Also, I’m noticing he did get some value out of his defense in his earlier years, as you suggested.