Can Means become the Orioles’ version of Kuechel?

[TouchemAll]

So like who on here had Means our number 1 pitcher this year.

He's been fantastic, can he teach that change up to the rest?

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Philip said:

At what point does SSS become “the new normal?” How many innings?

This is a simplification, but more-or-less:

“Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:

• 60 PA: Strikeout rate
• 120 PA: Walk rate
• 240 PA: HBP rate
• 290 PA: Single rate
• 1610 PA: XBH rate
• 170 PA: HR rate

• 910 AB: AVG
• 460 PA: OBP
• 320 AB: SLG
• 160 AB: ISO

• 80 BIP: GB rate
• 80 BIP: FB rate
• 600 BIP: LD rate
• 50 FBs: HR per FB
• 820 BIP: BABIP

“Stabilization” Points for Pitching Statistics:

• 70 BF: Strikeout rate
• 170 BF: Walk rate
• 640 BF: HBP rate
• 670 BF: Single rate
• 1450 BF: XBH rate
• 1320 BF: HR rate

• 630 BF: AVG
• 540 BF: OBP
• 550 AB: SLG
• 630 AB: ISO

• 70 BIP: GB rate
• 70 BIP: FB rate
• 650 BIP: LD rate
• 400 FB: HR per FB
• 2000 BIP: BABIP

Source: Fangraphs.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm reminded when Josh Towers looked like the 2nd coming of Greg Maddux.

Here's hoping Means' career turns out better.

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm reminded when Josh Towers looked like the 2nd coming of Greg Maddux.

Here's hoping Means' career turns out better.

In his first 11 MLB games Towers had a 2.17 ERA, but 3.3 K/9.  Means is striking out eight per nine.  See my post directly above: pitcher's K rate stabilizes after 70 batters faced.  Means has faced 134.

I remember watching Towers pitch for the Baysox the year he had 26 walks and 26 homers allowed in 183 innings.  1.2 BB/9 is cool and all, but he often was hit hard.

[HowAboutThat]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm reminded when Josh Towers looked like the 2nd coming of Greg Maddux.

Here's hoping Means' career turns out better.

That’s why I suggested maybe trading Means now.

if we had traded Mike Wright after his second great start( which was also his last great start) We would not of gotten much, but we would’ve gotten something. I hope that Means is for real, and I asked for a deep look at his stuff to help decide whether it is or not, but if there’s any risk that this is happy temporary blip, selllllllllll

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, Philip said:

That’s why I suggested maybe trading Means now.

if we had traded Mike Wright after his second great start( which was also his last great start) We would not of gotten much, but we would’ve gotten something. I hope that Means is for real, and I asked for a deep look at his stuff to help decide whether it is or not, but if there’s any risk that this is happy temporary blip, selllllllllll

What would you expect back in trade for Means?  I'd expect someone a lot like John Means - someone better than an org guy, but not a top 100 prospect but maybe some reasons to like him.  It would be dumb luck if they came out ahead.

Of course there's risk this is a temporary blip.  But you're not trading him for a sure thing, you'd be trading him for someone else with a decent risk profile.

[Moose Milligan]

30 minutes ago, Philip said:

That’s why I suggested maybe trading Means now.

if we had traded Mike Wright after his second great start( which was also his last great start) We would not of gotten much, but we would’ve gotten something. I hope that Means is for real, and I asked for a deep look at his stuff to help decide whether it is or not, but if there’s any risk that this is happy temporary blip, selllllllllll

Yeah, I can't get behind it.  

[Slappy]

37 minutes ago, Philip said:

That’s why I suggested maybe trading Means now.

if we had traded Mike Wright after his second great start( which was also his last great start) We would not of gotten much, but we would’ve gotten something. I hope that Means is for real, and I asked for a deep look at his stuff to help decide whether it is or not, but if there’s any risk that this is happy temporary blip, selllllllllll

I don't understand why. Means is the type of guy the organization should be looking for right now. 6 years of team control, cheap. He should still be around when the competitive window opens, hopefully within 3 years.

[Bubble Buddy]

It's no joke that this guy now sits at 92 MPH on his fastball. (https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=16269&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=)

 

If the change stays and he can get a breaker over the plate, what's not real about him? It's not like he's up there throwing 88. Sitting 92, with location and a change up could very well continue to play. I'm excited. When Brian Matusz was dominant for that early stretch, his change up was his best pitch IMO. Could pitch backwards, low 90's FB. His breaker is better than Means, but hopefully means can stay consistent with the change up how Matusz couldn't. 

 

Edited May 7, 2019 by Bubble Buddy

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A plus changeup can be the difference between mediocrity and success.  Now, can Chris Holt teach David Hess the same thing?  Yeah, it's not that simple.

I have both a circle change and a palmball that play really well off my 63 mph* heater.  

* that's with the reliever velocity bump.  If I'm starting I sit in the low-to-mid 50s.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Bubble Buddy said:

It's no joke that this guy now sits at 92 MPH on his fastball. (https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=16269&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=)

 

If the change stays and he can get a breaker over the plate, what's not real about him? It's not like he's up there throwing 88. Sitting 92, with location and a change up could very well continue to play. I'm excited. When Brian Matusz was dominant for that early stretch, his change up was his best pitch IMO. Could pitch backwards, low 90's FB. His breaker is better than Means, but hopefully means can stay consistent with the change up how Matusz couldn't. 

 

I’ll go to my grave wondering what happened to Matusz.    

As to Means, we deserve a pleasant surprise.    

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What would you expect back in trade for Means?  I'd expect someone a lot like John Means - someone better than an org guy, but not a top 100 prospect but maybe some reasons to like him.  It would be dumb luck if they came out ahead.

Of course there's risk this is a temporary blip.  But you're not trading him for a sure thing, you'd be trading him for someone else with a decent risk profile.

I have no idea what kind of return we would expect, because we would be trading him based only partially on what he is doing and mostly on his potential, which still has questions.

I am just hoping to avoid another situation where we overestimate How good a player will be. That’s why I really want to know if the signs point to him sustaining all this. Because that would be really great.

[Redskins Rick]

37 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A plus changeup can be the difference between mediocrity and success.  Now, can Chris Holt teach David Hess the same thing?  Yeah, it's not that simple.

Chris Paddack is having results, thanks to his changeup.

[Cumberbundy]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

Chris Paddack is having results, thanks to his changeup.

Blatant post theft, unbelievable.

 

5 hours ago, Cy Bundy said:

Paddack reminds the world about the power of a glorious change up, what a beautiful pitch.

 

[Redskins Rick]

23 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

Blatant post theft, unbelievable.

 

My apologies, for missing your earlier post.